Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[ON Progressive]

Looks like turnout was about 23.7K in Clark, but Democrats had a smaller advantage. About 10.4K-8.8K. Their overall advantage for in-person voting in Clark is now 46.5% to 35.1%, smaller than it is in Washoe.

It's amazing that Washoe is more Democratic than Clark so far.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1054253089731969024?s=21

This is rather disappointing, to be honest.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1054253089731969024?s=21

This is rather disappointing, to be honest.

Yeah, though Washoe is encouraging. Hopefully Dems can bring their margin up in Clark tomorrow.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1054253089731969024?s=21

This is rather disappointing, to be honest.

Yeah, though Washoe is encouraging. Hopefully Dems can bring their margin up in Clark tomorrow.

Yep

https://twitter.com/Jammin27Ben/status/1054258826667380736

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054258638284451840

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is 2016 not a good barometer? It actually had competitive races unlike 2014.

[UncleSam]

Why is 2016 not a good barometer? It actually had competitive races unlike 2014.

I think he means in terms of turnout. However, I definitely agree - it’s not as though there’s any way of telling how the statewide races would’ve gone based on EV from 2014 because we got no meaningful results.

[Former Kentuckian]

Atlas' obsession with diminishing Rosen has been one of the most amusing parts of this cycle for me. Gonna be fun watching the same people deal with her as a senator post-election.

I've been critical of her campaign, but Rosen herself is not an issue and she'll be a fine Senator. Even though I've been critical of her campaign, she doesn't need to run a perfect campaign and she's not uninspiring or weak or whatever. My issues have been more with her campaign staff and handlers, but that's really insignificant in this race and more just petty complaints on my part (which I'm more than ready to admit).

Rosen will make a really nice, and refreshing, contrast to Heller. He's such a wishy-washy coward.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is 2016 not a good barometer? It actually had competitive races unlike 2014.

Idk, but as a rule, I defer to Ralston on Nevada politics.  The man knows his stuff, to put it mildly.

[Gass3268]

Folks camped out in Houston to early vote today:

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054345116087918592

[bilaps]

But even he said it it is a problem that neither 2010 nor 2014 are good for comparison.

As I said yesterday, numbers are really good for republicans in Clarke. They are good for Dems as well but from R standpoint they are overperforming their registration by 8 points and Ds lead is only 8pts with absentees counted. Problem for Rs in Washoe. And I think it is overall problem for Republicans in the entire country in this swing counties, they could break for Dems this year.

[Virginiá]

Not that there is necessarily anyone there for him, but imagine telling someone you camped out for hours or gasps, all night to vote first for Ted Cruz.

That is like a perfect example of when the person you're telling is happy and excited to hear what you did, but is then groaning and looking for an exit by the time you finish.

[bilaps]

Who's up for first FL early vote update?

Charlotte county reports 73-53-20 vote breakdown R-D-O while Palm Beach county registers 1 (one) vote for Democrats

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It is the first day of early voting in TX and there are reportedly long lines in Houston. This has video, looks like a pretty good # of non-white people:

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054355561838456832

[Virginiá]

It is the first day of early voting in TX and there are reportedly long lines in Houston. This has video, looks like a pretty good # of non-white people:

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054355561838456832

looks in video for ted cruz voters who have pulled their coats over their faces as they rush inside.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wow, people literally camped out overnight to vote.

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054345116087918592

Shocking turnout for first day of early voting in Houston

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Beto inside a voting camper tent:

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

Ralston just updated his blog again.

- Sunday turnout slump in Clark was expected, with the caveat that Republicans have managed a very aggressive turnout campaign over this weekend.

- Weekend turnout in Clark was about 4% of RV, closer to 2010 (when Reid survived) than 2014 (2%) or 2016 (7%).

- After considering absentees, Dems lead the EV 44-38, or about 1% better than their statewide registration advantage.

- Turnout in rural areas should be monitored over the next few days. If higher than usual, this is naturally a boon for Republicans.

- Democrats boosted their leads in NV-3 and NV-4 plus some key Senate districts; mixed results in key Assembly districts.

[bilaps]

And here is the part where he says that neither 2014 nor 2010 are great comparisons

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I mean nobody really predicted that Republicans are going to sweep the state like in 2014

[Xing]

And here is the part where he says that neither 2014 nor 2010 are great comparisons

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I mean nobody really predicted that Republicans are going to sweep the state like in 2014

I'm not sure he's saying that you can't make comparisons, simply that 2018 being better for Democrats than 2014 is pretty much a given, and that Reid did surprisingly well given the type of year it was nationally. In terms of comparisons to 2014, the question is whether Democrats are doing only somewhat better, or are doing significantly better.

Anyway, Mineral county just got its numbers in. 95 in person votes on Saturday, Republicans got 53 to the Democrats' 31, and 28 absentee votes, Republicans got 14 and Democrats got 12.

Clark also updated its absentees, and it looks like a whopping 19 votes were added. 13 for the Democrats, 2 for the Republicans.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

More from TX (also Houston area, in a Hispanic neighborhood):

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054400878373990401

It is hard to tell from that video how many of the voters are Hispanic, though.

[2016]

Why can't you Democrats just give up? I don't like Cruz but he is going to get reelected. These Pictures are just blowing up smoke by these fanatic Democrats.

[SCNCmod]

Why can't you Democrats just give up? I don't like Cruz but he is going to get reelected. These Pictures are just blowing up smoke by these fanatic Democrats.

Why would anyone call on the other side to give up?

[ON Progressive]

More from TX (also Houston area, in a Hispanic neighborhood):

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054400878373990401

It is hard to tell from that video how many of the voters are Hispanic, though.

I did see that the NBC/WSJ poll had 71% of Hispanic/Latino voters with a 9 or 10 in enthusiasm, which was actually more than white or black voters. If voter enthusiasm is that high among Hispanics, one must wonder if we might be underestimating Democratic odds in races where Latinos/Hispanics are important like TX-Sen, TX-23, AZ-Sen, CA-21, etc.

[Xing]

Why can't you Democrats just give up? I don't like Cruz but he is going to get reelected. These Pictures are just blowing up smoke by these fanatic Democrats.

Uh-oh, you sound nervous. Don't worry, I'm sure election night this year and every year from now on will go just like your username. Most of us don't actually think Beto will win, but the massive turnout among voters who often stay home during midterms is encouraging for many other races.

[Zaybay]

More from TX (also Houston area, in a Hispanic neighborhood):

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054400878373990401

It is hard to tell from that video how many of the voters are Hispanic, though.

I did see that the NBC/WSJ poll had 71% of Hispanic/Latino voters with a 9 or 10 in enthusiasm, which was actually more than white or black voters. If voter enthusiasm is that high among Hispanics, one must wonder if we might be underestimating Democratic odds in races where Latinos/Hispanics are important like TX-Sen, TX-23, AZ-Sen, CA-21, etc.

If such enthusiasm is present in Latino voting groups, then we should have already put AZ, NV, and a bunch of house races in the bag. Also, TX would be a tossup in that case. I dont think its that high, as that is higher than both AA and White voters, groups who have had historically high voter turnout, but its 2018, so I guess its possible.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/EdEspinoza/status/1054401592940810240