Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[IceSpear]

Ralston still sounds skeptical that Democrat can get the Clark Freiwal to 35K, just saying that it seems "possible". Since they are at 21.5K with 6 days to go, they'd need to add 2250 every day to get there. This seems pretty attainable to me given that week 2 has generally better numbers for Democrats. Am I missing something?

Saying it's possible doesn't really sound skeptical...

I think Ralston's being conservative on the 35K benchmark for Clark (Las Vegas) given that the second week of early voting is usually 25% higher and that 40K is achievable given the current pace. May not happen until Friday which is by far the biggest day historically, but seems to be in reach. I'm actually feeling bullish on NV compared to any other possible flip.

Bold. I'm still thinking Tennessee and Texas flip before Nevada.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

Can I also join you in putting eggs on Atlas poster faces about this race?

Not just Atlas posters...countless pollsters, pundits, "experts"...the list goes on!

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

Can I also join you in putting eggs on Atlas poster faces about this race?

Not just Atlas posters...countless pollsters, pundits, "experts"...the list goes on!

Don't forget to include me in the effort.

Ralston seems to be saying that NV-04 is close to being gone for Republicans, and that NV-03 is starting to look bad for them as well. In other words, water is wet.

But the pundits told me that Danny Tarkanian of all people surely has a 50/50 chance of winning a swing district in a Democratic year. I have no reason to doubt their expertise.

[IceSpear]

Wow, are people in this thread still worrying about Democrats losing Nevada?

[IceSpear]

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LOL, Heller still behind even if he wins independents by double digits.

[IceSpear]

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LOL, Heller still behind even if he wins independents by double digits.

tbf, trump won nv indies by 13, so not too crazy

So then the generic ballot being D+2 isn't too crazy either.

[IceSpear]

This Clark margin is f**king anemic. Turnout is what it is, but Democrats are still 3 points below registration. This isn't good, people.

Yeah, it's absolutely awful that Heller could win independents by 10 points and still lose. Awful for Heller that is, not Sen. Rosen.

[IceSpear]

This Clark margin is f**king anemic. Turnout is what it is, but Democrats are still 3 points below registration. This isn't good, people.

Yeah, it's absolutely awful that Heller could win independents by 10 points and still lose. Awful for Heller that is, not Sen. Rosen.

Don't be disingenuous. The point of the early vote is for Dems to bank enough of a lead to stand up to the Republican-leaning ED vote. If they can't do that now, God knows what can happen on election day.

We don't know that ED vote will be R-leaning. Republicans could just as easily be cannibalizing their vote. And while Trump won Independents by double digits in 2016 (still not enough for him to win), I doubt Heller will do the same.

Did you forget that #EveryElectionWillBeLike2016?

Hey, if we're going to play this game, I can play too. Reid only had a 25k vote lead in Clark, which is less than Rosen currently has and will be far less than she has when all is said and done, and he still won by 6 points. Therefore, Rosen will easily win by double digits. #EveryElectionWillBeLike2010

Point is, if Dean Heller of all people is winning independents and ED voters by big enough blowouts to overturn Rosen's banked lead, then Democrats have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race. Like getting their House gains out of the single digits and preventing a Republican filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

[IceSpear]

Does anyone have any theories as to why Halloween turnout is usually so bad for Dems? It doesn’t seem like Dems would be significantly more likely to be involved or anything.

I'm not sure it's just bad for Democrats. Looking at previous years, it seems like turnout is usually slightly down across the state in NV on Halloween.

Did you forget that #EveryElectionWillBeLike2016?

Hey, if we're going to play this game, I can play too. Reid only had a 25k vote lead in Clark, which is less than Rosen currently has and will be far less than she has when all is said and done, and he still won by 6 points. Therefore, Rosen will easily win by double digits. #EveryElectionWillBeLike2010

Point is, if Dean Heller of all people is winning independents and ED voters by big enough blowouts to overturn Rosen's banked lead, then Democrats have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race. Like getting their House gains out of the single digits and preventing a Republican filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

Yeah, this is the point that people need to get into their heads. If Dean Heller is winning, or if the race is within 1%, Democrats are having an awful night. It's really that simple.

No, clearly there are two universes. The universe of Nevada which is guaranteed to be 2016 redux (except Republicans win this time, because reasons), and the universe of literally everywhere else where there will be a megagigatsunami for the Democrats.

[IceSpear]

Also, if anyone wants to diversify their concern trolling portfolio, how about talking about Florida and Arizona where Republicans actually lead in the early vote (the latter by double digits!) yet all the Dems here assume those races are in the bag, as opposed to the dire situation in Nevada where the fatal problem is that the Dem lead is merely big rather than massive.

[IceSpear]

Analysis of Upshot polls: independents are breaking 2-1 toward the Democrats.  An important point (bolded) for EV analysis:

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But Atlas and the pundits told me that Mean Dean would win independents by eleventy bajillion points!

[IceSpear]

I want Democrats to put this race away. They are clearly not doing that. We'll have to rely on the independents to actually win this, and I don't want to bet on independents.

If you don't want to rely on independents, then I have bad news for you in AZ and FL, where Republicans actually lead in the early vote. Or in countless House districts that Dems are going to need to win the majority.

[IceSpear]

I can't wait for Sen. Rosen.

A lot of posters, pundits, pollsters, and "experts" are going to be eating a big breakfast of crow and eggs on November 7th.

[IceSpear]

The last day of early vote always sees a huge spike in Clark - they probably top 40k votes tomorrow and D's get over that 40k firewall.

I know people keep comparing 2018 to 2016, but look at how much better the D's are fairing versus the last midterm in 2014. And when you look at 2010 (Harry Reid's race) D's only had a raw 6k vote lead in the whole state. For Heller and Laxalt to win they need to be winning I's by double digits and have a huge surge on E-day of new voters.

This is what people have been failing to understand no matter how many times it is explained. Reid won by 6 points in a red wave year with a pitiful early vote lead. Yeah, you can dismiss it with MUH Sharron Angle, yet nobody seems to have a problem with using MUH 2016 as a measure for Rosen's benchmarks, so...

[IceSpear]

But Atlas, the pundits, Emerson, and Reuters told me that Heller had this in the bag. How could all these esteemed geniuses POSSIBLY be wrong?!

[IceSpear]

That being said while I do love people going out to vote long lines are sort of a problem in and of themselves and aren't a good thing.

[IceSpear]

And to think at one point we were wondering if the vote would get over 40K.

And to think at a million points people called this race lean R because of Reuters/Emerson polls, LOL.

[IceSpear]

All hail the Great Freiwal, our destiny and salvation! Blessed be Saint Harry and may he be eternally thanked for his great workings in the realm of Nevada!

In all seriousness, I hope these numbers can compel the forum to focus on more interesting Senate races through Election Day.

Nah, Atlas will go back to thinking Heller wins (even during a Democratic tsunami!) the next time an Emerson poll shows him ahead.

[IceSpear]

Hopefully I can add 1 to the absentee ballot numbers as soon as I actually get my ballot. Of course, I'll have to return it ASAP.

Honestly Jacky Rosen is going to be one of the more right wing Democrats there is. I wouldn't start worshiping her. I'm much more excited to vote for breaking up monopolies and automatic voter registration and voting for Aaron Ford, Kate Marshall, Nelson Arajuo, and Steve Sisolak. I'm not even too found of Susie Lee given her background with charter schools but public education isn't something the House has much control over. 

I never even cared about Jacky Rosen at first. In fact, I didn't even know who she was until I came back to Atlas about a year ago and stated tuning into politics again. Yet all I see on Atlas is how she's a weak, awful, toxic, worst candidate ever. Expecting the worst, I look her up, and what do I find? Literally a generic Democrat. No scandals, absolutely nothing wrong with her, except people not liking her haircut or speaking skills. Atlas's constant idiocy about her and this race in general is what made me a Rosen fanboy, just to counter all the flagrant stupidity here.

And the fact that Atlas and the pundits were all convinced that Dean Heller, who only beat a corrupt lady under ethics investigation who looks like a wax figure by 1 point while getting less votes than Mitt Romney, was some Unbeatable Titan who could be re-elected even in a Democratic tsunami because of the aforementioned factors plus junk polls (which are ALWAYS wrong in Nevada) showing him ahead only intensified the feeling.

[IceSpear]

Getting hard to see how anyone can call NV a tossup at this any point