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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MN SurveyUSA: Walz +7
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Author Topic: MN SurveyUSA: Walz +7  (Read 1038 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: September 13, 2018, 11:04:08 am »



Walz 47
Johnson 40
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2018, 11:10:05 am »

It's a really good thing Swanson didn't get the nomination, otherwise Democrats might really have to worry about this race. With Walz, though, it's Likely D. Not saying Walz is a god-tier candidate, but he's decent enough to keep Minnesota in Democratic hands in a good year for Democrats.
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giving birth to thunder
BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2018, 11:53:22 am »

Glad they polled the AG race. Looks like Ellison should be able to pull through on coattails. Worth noting SUSA has historically had an R lean in MN.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2018, 11:54:46 am »

Glad they polled the AG race. Looks like Ellison should be able to pull through on coattails. Worth noting SUSA has historically had an R lean in MN.
Yeah, especially since the undecideds appear to be Dems uncomfortable with the allegations, and, seeing as they have practically withered out, its likely that he will win. You normally dont get this kind of polling, so Im glad they did this.
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President Biden
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2018, 11:59:46 am »

Likely D. The question is whether Walz can pull Feehan and Radinovich over the line.

I actually consider Johnson stronger than Pawlenty, but it's the wrong year for Republicans to win it.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2018, 12:59:46 pm »

Likely Democratic. I predict Walz winning with about 50% of the vote versus 41% for Johnson. Minnesota governors rarely hit 50%, or just that number.
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2018, 02:01:03 pm »

Updated prediction: Likely D

Walz (D) - 52.9%
Johnson (R) - 43.1%
Wright (LMN) - 2.4%
Welter (L) - 0.7%
Others - 0.9%
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2018, 12:18:16 am »

God why did these idiots have to pick Ellison after these allegations? Regardless of whether they were true or not he was already a weak candidate and now even weaker.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2018, 12:28:12 am »

God why did these idiots have to pick Ellison after these allegations? Regardless of whether they were true or not he was already a weak candidate and now even weaker.

Extremely weak field.

For the record I didn't vote for him, although was undecided that morning. I prayed for guidance in the voting booth, after filling out every other office and asked God to guide me on what to do.

He probably still wins though. Note all the Republicans are at about the same number. Probably the lowest performing statewide Dem candidate this year though.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2018, 12:14:45 pm »

Good for Walz. Minnesota is not turning red like people think it is.
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hofoid
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2018, 12:25:12 pm »

Good for Walz. Minnesota is not turning red like people think it is.
The legislature will be brutal, though. DFL strength is increasingly a Twin Cities Metro-only thing and that will bite them in the butt to only focus there.
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giving birth to thunder
BRTD
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« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2018, 12:31:12 pm »

Good for Walz. Minnesota is not turning red like people think it is.
The legislature will be brutal, though. DFL strength is increasingly a Twin Cities Metro-only thing and that will bite them in the butt to only focus there.

Please tell me what legislative seats you expect the Republicans to pick up.
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hofoid
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2018, 12:35:08 pm »

Good for Walz. Minnesota is not turning red like people think it is.
The legislature will be brutal, though. DFL strength is increasingly a Twin Cities Metro-only thing and that will bite them in the butt to only focus there.

Please tell me what legislative seats you expect the Republicans to pick up.
Whatever DFL hold-outs are left in the outstate. If not 2018, then 2020 during a presidential year.  Rurals/humble workers are being tossed out of the party in droves.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2018, 12:46:08 pm »

Good for Walz. Minnesota is not turning red like people think it is.
The legislature will be brutal, though. DFL strength is increasingly a Twin Cities Metro-only thing and that will bite them in the butt to only focus there.

Please tell me what legislative seats you expect the Republicans to pick up.
Whatever DFL hold-outs are left in the outstate. If not 2018, then 2020 during a presidential year.  Rurals/humble workers are being tossed out of the party in droves.

The rurals that literally got their preferred candidate for governor in the Dem primary this year are being thrown out of the party?
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giving birth to thunder
BRTD
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2018, 12:48:41 pm »

Good for Walz. Minnesota is not turning red like people think it is.
The legislature will be brutal, though. DFL strength is increasingly a Twin Cities Metro-only thing and that will bite them in the butt to only focus there.

Please tell me what legislative seats you expect the Republicans to pick up.
Whatever DFL hold-outs are left in the outstate. If not 2018, then 2020 during a presidential year.  Rurals/humble workers are being tossed out of the party in droves.

You think Mankato, Rochester and Duluth sears are going to flip? LOL.

There's only three State Senate seats held by the DFL out if the metro or Iron Range, and two are based around liberal college urban areas. Only one in the NE isn't based around the Duluth area and it just barely voted for Trump with under 50. There's also only three Trump voting State House districts held by the DFL, one of which was just barely and caused by an!tty college turnout.

You should actually research the elected bodies you make these big sweeping statements about before doing so.
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hofoid
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2018, 01:04:42 pm »

Good for Walz. Minnesota is not turning red like people think it is.
The legislature will be brutal, though. DFL strength is increasingly a Twin Cities Metro-only thing and that will bite them in the butt to only focus there.

Please tell me what legislative seats you expect the Republicans to pick up.
Whatever DFL hold-outs are left in the outstate. If not 2018, then 2020 during a presidential year.  Rurals/humble workers are being tossed out of the party in droves.

You think Mankato, Rochester and Duluth sears are going to flip? LOL.

There's only three State Senate seats held by the DFL out if the metro or Iron Range, and two are based around liberal college urban areas. Only one in the NE isn't based around the Duluth area and it just barely voted for Trump with under 50. There's also only three Trump voting State House districts held by the DFL, one of which was just barely and caused by an!tty college turnout.

You should actually research the elected bodies you make these big sweeping statements about before doing so.
Moving the goalposts, I see. The Iron Range is next to fall. They sharply turned right in 2016, and National Dem actions will just keep shoving them out.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2018, 02:10:23 pm »

I should bump this after Walz wins that area and all the incumbents are re-elected in November.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2018, 02:57:23 pm »

If anything, can we expect Dems to pick up some seats in the area?
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giving birth to thunder
BRTD
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2018, 04:03:43 pm »

If anything, can we expect Dems to pick up some seats in the area?

No because the DFL already holds all seats in the area. More info here (will be updated this weekend): https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300082.0

5A is a possible pickup, but its not really the Iron Range. And I'm a bit concerned about that one because it did vote for Stewart Mills in 2014. Not by a lot but still...Stewart Mills.

The area hofoid is trolling about barely voted for Trump, did not give him a majority and voted for all its DFL incumbents in landslides.
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