Australian analysis-WA, NT and TAS

[Platypus]

This is the first of an analytical series on australian voting in the 2004 election and historically. Each state and territory will be analysed. Results of 2004 in detail, and overviews of past elections, will be provided; and demographic data. Today, i'll just present some stats and basic analysis on WA and the NT.

Western Australia

Seats: 15 10 Liberal 5 ALP

BRAND
South of Perth, once a strong ALP seat. Outer metropolitan.

MP: Kim BEAZLEY, Opposition Leader, ALP. Two-Party Preffered vote: 54.65%

CANNING
Outer suburban seat, historically had a reasonbaly strong lean to the Liberals.

MP: Don RANDALL, Liberal. TPP: 59.54%

COWAN
Northeastern Perth, middle suburbs. Very much a swing seat after this election, but with a historic ALP lean.

MP: Graham EDWARDS, ALP. TPP: 50.78%

CURTIN
Very strongly Liberal seat in Perth's northern beachside suburbs.

MP: Julie BISHOP, Liberal. TPP: 64.62%

FORREST
Rural and regional seat that includes Bunbury, and covers the extreme southwest of the state. Very liberal, with a slight Labor trend.

MP: Geoff PROSSER, Liberal. TPP: 60.45%

FREMANTLE
Working class area to the immediate south of Perth, now with a large amount of yuppies. VERY Labor historically.

MP: Carmen LAWRENCE, ALP. TPP: 57.76%

HASLUCK
A new seat, in outer suburban Perth. Was won by the ALP in 2001, it's first electioon, and by the Liberals in 2004. Very much a swing seat come 2007.

MP: Stuart HENRY, Liberal. TPP: 51.82%

KALGOORLIE
The world's largest electorate, this whopper covers over 2,200,000 square kilometers-and it's a little bit 'under quota' due to probably purposeful malapportionment. Probably the only seat decided on race; the ALP and National Party candidates were too nice to the abos.

MP: Barry HAASE, Liberal. TPP: 56.30%

MOORE
Southeastern outer suburban/regional, and very Liberal.

MP: Mal WASHER, Liberal. TPP: 60.83%

O'CONNOR
Eegional/Rural. Includes Albany and Bunbary, in a wrap-around of the southwest, seperating the other seats from Kalgoorlie. It's also massive; despite being a fraction of the size of Kalgoorlie, it's still bigger then New Jersey. Very loyal to it's MP.

MP: Wilson TUCKEY, Liberal. TPP: 70.39%

PEARCE
Southeastern rural/regional, and again very Liberal. It's member was one of the 'gang of five' who attempted to change the immigration detention policy.

MP: Judi MOYLAN, Liberal. TPP: 62.94%

PERTH
Focussed on the inner city, this is a sea that ought to be heavily ALP. However, it has always been reasonably marginal and has been won by the conservatives in previous years.

MP: Stephen SMITH, ALP. TPP: 56.73%

STIRLING
Another marginal liberal-held seat, that will be competitive in 2007 if Beazley still leads the ALP. Again, outer suburban.

MP: Michael KEENAN, Liberal. TPP: 52.04%

SWAN
A miracle for the ALP, they managed to hold onto Swan (and Cowan) as all their other marginals in WA were lost. Inner city eastern.

MP: Kim WILKIE, ALP. TPP: 50.08%

TAGNEY
Outer suburban north. Newish, and very Liberal.

MP: Dennis JENSEN, Liberal. TPP: 61.75%

Initial Analysis

WA had a huge swing to the Liberals in 2004, predominently due to the fact that most of it's seats are outer-suburban and have a lot of mortgage-holders. Also, the fact that WA's own Kim Beazley wasn't leading the party hurt significantly, especially in his own seat.

Northern Territory

Seats: 1 ALP 1 CLP

LINGIARI
The Northern territory except for Darwin. The large number of ALP-voting aborigines helps Snowdon win this seat, but he's probably have wion it anyway, as he is a long-serving member.

MP: Warren SNOWDON, ALP. TPP: 57.66%

SOLOMON
The only capital-based seat not held by the ALP, and only by a slight margin. Analysts predict it will become a bellweather in future elections.

MP: David TOLLNER, Country Liberal Party. TPP: 52.81%

Initial Anlaysis
One solid ALP seat and one swing seat, despite being a socially conservative place. Lingiari is heavily ALP because of the significant amounts of indigenous people, but Solomon is close because everyone hates the CLP, and only dislikes the ALP. Still, they do like Howard, it seems. Solomon will definently be a seat to watch in 2007, and if the ALP win the election overall, this seat will most likely go to them.

[Dave from Michigan]

interesting, so the liberal party is a center right party? (according to wikipedia site on australia politics)

[Platypus]

hard to explain, really. It's economically quite right wing, but socially it's members range from moderate (Judi Moylan) to Conservative (John Howard) to ubercon (Tony Abbott). The ALP is a bit different; it has three formalised factions. The left faction is economically very left, and socially generally very left also (lindsay tanner), but with some elements of conservatism. The center block is economically center-left, and socially moderate (Harry Quick); the right faction is economically center-right and socially moderate (Kim Beazley), generally speaking.

The greens are economically left and socially uberleft; tyhe democrats are economically center-right and socially well below the line, the Nationals are economically centrist but socially very conservative, and have a strong focus on rural areas, and 'Family First" is socially very conservative but economically...changes from issue to issue.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good stuff

Interestingly enough at State level Kalgoorlie is overwhelmingly ALP (with the exception of Kalgoorlie itself).

[Platypus]

Yes, lots of aborigines, and Broome is actually quite moderate for an outback town. In fact, I think it votes ALP.

*Checks*

'Broome West' voted for Haase 565 votes to 446; 'Broome' voted for Ted Stephens (ALP candidate) 1,507 to 1,363. Total, Stephens 1,953; Haase 1,298. There might be other Broome booths, though; im not familiar with the names of the suburbs up there I'm fairly sure Brrome would have a lot more voters then that; i'd put it at at least 8k.

BTW, "Useless Loop" had 46 voters, 1 vote was invalid, 1 for the CDP Christian Party; 2 for the Citizens' Electoral Council (Australia's LaRoucheites; probably their best % nationwide...); 2 for the Greens, 3 for independents; 12 for the ALP and 23 for Haase.

TPP was 28-17.

[Platypus]

Brrome regional prison voted for the ALP candidate 40-5 TPP, and not to be racist, but that's probably a reasonably good idea of the % the ALP gets from aborigines.  About the same as the Democrats in the US and african-americans, but there are significantly fewer aborigines. There were a handful of other booths in areas with postcodes 672..., but they were either not in Broome (Port Hedland), or really small (100 voters or so, and voting for the ALP), or remote teams based in Broome.

Oh, and the hospital in Brrome voted 9-2 for the ALP TPP, and one of the votes was obviously a donkey vote (straight down the ballot) because 1st round is 9 ALP, 1 Lib and 1 greens, and final round 9 ALP and 2 liberals. The greens candidate was on top of the list; the liberal second.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long till you do Tasmania, btw?

[Platypus]

Actually, i'm doing it right now. I opened up "Bass" about 10 seconds before this thread

It's pretty late so i'll only do Tassie for now, tomorrow Queensland.

[Platypus]

I decided to download the 'divisional_profiles_2004' booklet, but it took AGES, and once it was finally done I was half asleep, so sorry for not doing Tassie last night. I'm doing it now.

[Platypus]

Tasmania

Seats: 5 (Note: Tasmania is only entitled to 4 by quota, but each foundation state is guaranteed 5 seats by the constitution).

BASS
A swing seat in Tasmania's Northeast, this seat includes the town of Launceston, and also Flinder's Island. Timber, tourism, fishing etc.

MP: Michael FERGUSON, Liberal. TPP: 52.63%

BRADDON
The Liberal's other gain in 2004 in the island state, Braddon covers the Northwest of Tasmania, including Davenport, Burnie and King Island; it's basically a regional seat. Forestry, fishing, dairy.

MP: Mark BAKER, Liberal. TPP: 51.13%

DENISON
Covering Hobart and Glenorchy, it's basically a city and suburban seat. Strong ALP, with a firm loyalty to the incumbent.

MP: Duncan KERR, ALP. TPP: 63.29%

FRANKLIN
Covering the south of Tasmania, it includes some suburbs of Hobart and a helluva lot of trees. Reasonably strongly ALP, and again with strong loyalties to it's MP.

MP: Harry QUICK, ALP. TPP: 57.59%

LYONS
Covering the center of Tasmania, there's a lot of wilderness here too. And a lot of logging, which almsot cost the ALP this seat. Hobart suburbs saved it. It's MP is...colourful...

MP: Dick ADAMS, ALP. TPP: 53.68%

Initial Analysis
Tasmania is a Labor state, generally. It's state government is Laboer with a massive margin, it's senators include 2 greens, etc. etc.. It also has a large % of 'christian values' people, but these groups don't necessarily clash-Harry Quick for example, represents both groups well. After the 1998 and 2001 elections, the ALP held all 5 seats in Tassie, but lost Bass and Braddon in 2004 primarily because Mark Latham's forestry policy was interpreted as being bad for jobs, and the logger's union officially supported Howard. Both should change back next election if the ALP doesn't screw up again; especially if they re-run the former MPs.

[Platypus]

Queensland

Seats: 28 17 Liberal 6 ALP 4 National 1 Independent

BLAIR
Includes part of Ipswich up along the Great Dividing Range, terminating nearish Townsville. Rural seat, which includes Kingaroy (home of Bjelke-Petersen) to the northwest of Brisbane.

MP: Cameron THOMPSON, Liberal. TPP: 61.21%

BONNER
A brand new seat, Bonner covers Brisbane's southeastern suburbs and the Port of Brisbane. It's also really, really, really marginal.

MP: Ross VASTA, Liberal. TPP: 50.51%

BOWMAN
Following Bonner along the coast, this seat includes some outer suburbs of Brisbane, and had a MASSIVE swing to the Liberals in 2004, having been an ALP seat in 2001.

MP: Andrew LAMING, Liberal. TPP: 59. 12%

BRISBANE
Unsurprisingly, covers the inner city of Brisbane. It's quite strongly ALP historically, but the Liberals have been so sucessful in Queensland that it's actually marginal now.

MP: Archie BEVIS, ALP. TPP: 53.90%

CAPRICORNIA
Sort of a practically always-marginal ALP seat, with a reasonably large aboriginal population that might be the reasion the ALP wins this regional/rural seat, whcih includes Rockhampton, Marlborough and some islands and stuff (Basically, Rockhampton and a helluva lot of add-ons). It';s voted ALP in every election since 1961, except the coalition landslides in 1975 and 1996.

MP: Kirsten LIVERMORE, ALP. TPP: 55.14%

DAWSON
Stretching along the Queensland coast up from Capricornia, this seat includes Mackay, Proserpine and the Whitsundays. It's National, even though it's MP is absolutely hopeless, by a mile.

MP: De-Anne KELLY, National. TPP: 60.38%

DICKSON
OUter Northwestern suburbs of Brisbane, and won by the ALP in it's first election in 1993, a Liberal in 1996, the ALP (Cheryl Kernot, no less) in 1998 and Peter Dutton since, who actually, shock horror, won re-election with a large margin; primarily cos of the mortgage holders.

MP: Peter DUTTON, Liberal. TPP: 57.83%

FADDEN
AOuthern Brisbane/Northern Gold Coast, along the coast, with lots of islands and canals etc. Nouvelle riche, je pense. It's MP has been there since 1984, but i've never heard of him.

MP: David JULL, Liberal. TPP: 65.28%

FAIRFAX
Noosa, Nambour etc. White shoe brigade and farmers. Always has been and always will be coalition. Coincidentally, the site of the Ivan Malat/Malloy saga

MP: Alex SOMLYAY, Liberal. TPP: 60.83%

FISHER
Kawana, Maroochydore, Mooloolaba, etc to the immediate south of Fairfax. Very Liberal, and with strong MP loyalties.

MP: Peter SLIPPER, Liberal. TPP: 62.98%

FORDE
To the west of the Gold Coast and Brisbane, along the NSW border. No really major towns or anything; just a lot of farms and a few Brisbane suburbs.

MP: Kay ELSON, Liberal. TPP: 62.98%

GRIFFITH
Inner city south of Brisbane, this seat has been most strongly associated with the ALP then 'Brisbane'. It's current MP is considered strong leadership material for the ALP into the future.

MP: Kevin RUDD, ALP. TPP: 58.63%

GROOM
Inland from Brisbane, this seat includes a lot of farms, Oakley and the dominant Toowoomba. Anaother always has been, always will be coalition seat.

MP: Ian MACFARLANE, Liberal. TPP: 68.95%

HERBERT
A semi-marginal seat the ALP are desperate to win, Herbert includes most of Townsville, a few farms and some islands.The ALP can't win this seat in 2008, but it needs to do better in Queensland.

MP: Peter LINDSAY, Liberal. TPP: 56.20%

OK, that's the first half. I'll do the second half later.

[jimrtex]

Western Australia

KALGOORLIE
The world's largest electorate, this whopper covers over 2,200,000 square kilometers-and it's a little bit 'under quota' due to probably purposeful malapportionment.

Australia probably has the most stringent population apportionment standards in the world, doing redistributions on an essentially continuous basis, and keying on projected electorate changes.

At the time of the last WA redistribution, Kalgoorlie was the 5th most populous division, 4.77% above average.   The variation was projected to decline to 2.72% by 2004.  In actuality, the projections overall were too high, and Kalgoorlie has had a small decline, so now it is the 4th smallest division.

Kalgoorlie has 91% of the area of the state and includes all but the southwest corner.  O'Connor has 77% of the remnant, and forms a ring inside of Kalgoorlie, so that it is the only WA division to border Kalgoorlie.

Pearce and Forrest form the next ring, together looping around the Perth area, and comprise 49% and 40% of the remainder of the state exclusive of the first two.   Canning has 73% of the area after these 4 largest divisions are removed.

So the 10 smallest divisions are confined to 27% of 11% of 23% of 9% (a bit more than 0.5%) of the state.

[Platypus]

Thanks for the info. It's pretty empty out there. I like the fact that O'Connor is still bigger then New Jersey, myself

[Platypus]

As appropriate a place as any for this:

[jimrtex]

The larger NT division is 4132 times larger than the smaller division, though they have about the same electorate.

[minionofmidas]

Do you have percentage figures for Aboriginals in Kalgoorlie, Capricornia, and the two NT seats?
Also, please define the Australian usage of "regional". Thanks!

[Platypus]

i dont have them by seat, although if you check out the aussie bereau of stats, they'll have figuires by state and territory. I *think* the NT is about 1/4-1/3 aboriginal. Regional basically means...farms and stuff, but compartively lots of country towns. Gippsland is a classic regional seat-lots of people in the towns, but def. in the country, lots of farms etc.

[minionofmidas]

So basically "regional" is rural but not utterly vast and empty?

[Platypus]

hmmn, yeah, basically. But it has to have a significant town population as well, maybe a third? Half? not quite sure.

[Platypus]

rest of queensland shortly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good stuff on Tasmania. There was less of a protest vote in Bass than Braddon from what I recall, it's just that the other was more marginal anyway.

[Platypus]

I was up to Leichardt when I think I accidentally pressed the 'power' button on my keyboard or whatever it is that makes it turn off, and lost what i'd done. heartbroken, I stiopped

I'll try again later tonight. In the meantime, LOTR: TT is on in 17 minutes; enough time to walk the dog, have a quick smoke and get comfortable. See you in three hours

(btw, thanks. I'm actually not as knowledgable about Tassie as I'd like to be; I'll probably be doing a bit more of an in-depth analysis of Bass, Melbourne Ports (my own seat) and Gippsland. I'm also considering findind a bit more about Farrer and Canberra, the two ACT seats, before I move there; so they might get the in-depth treatment too).