Would Dems have to wait till 2022 to get the Senate back?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It seems they are collapsing in ND/IN/MT, which brings the number of GOP to 54...and they'll surely lose AL-Sen with a non-Moore opponent raising the number to 55. There are no low-hanging fruit for them in 2020 enough to bring it back 51-49 in their favour. Also, with 2020 being a presidential year, the states would revert to their normal partisan lean, which would make it hard to recover the 2014 losses. Is their best hope DJT's re-election causing a 2022 wave?

[TarHeelDem]

Nah, they'll win at least six of NV/AZ/ND/TX/MO/IN/TN/FL and take back the Senate in November of this year.

[libertpaulian]

It seems they are collapsing in ND/IN/MT, which brings the number of GOP to 54...and they'll surely lose AL-Sen with a non-Moore opponent raising the number to 55. There are no low-hanging fruit for them in 2020 enough to bring it back 51-49 in their favour. Also, with 2020 being a presidential year, the states would revert to their normal partisan lean, which would make it hard to recover the 2014 losses. Is their best hope DJT's re-election causing a 2022 wave?

No one is saying that the Dems are absolutely going to take back the Senate, but rather, the chances are better than they were a month ago.

I would agree with that subscription, especially given Gillum's victory, the Trump state Dems fielding strong incumbent candidates, Cruz's stunning collapse (I still think he wins, though), and the Democratic trends of Arizona and Nevada. 

[Mister Mets]

2014 was pretty good for Republicans, so there are pickup opportunities in Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina.

Alabama's the Republicans' best shot at flipping a seat, although it was absurd for Republicans to screw up so badly as to make that a seat they have to flip.

The only other swing states where Democrats have a Senator are Michigan, New Hampshire and Virginia.

[Orser67]

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Not sure where you're getting that impression from regarding MT, and IN isn't lost just because of one bad poll. I guess you're also assuming Dems are doomed in AZ, NV, TN, and TX, but Dems still have a strong chance in the first two states at least.

Anyway, I wouldn't write off Dem's chances of picking up the Senate in 2020 if Trump loses. Dems are favored in CO and there are at least seven other Republican-held seats that no one could reasonably call safe (ME, NC, GA, IA, MT, AZ, and AK).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sen is still in play, ND and TX leans R and tossups in TN, MS, IN, FL and MT, MO leans D

[TML]

Even if Democrats don't flip the Senate this year, there's still a good chance they can do so in 2020. An analysis done by Sabato's Crystal Ball earlier this year indicate that of the Senate seats up for reelection in 2020, there are a total of 9 potentially competitive seats currently held by Republicans (AK, AZ, CO, GA, IA, LA, ME, MT, and NC) compared to only 5 currently held by Democrats (AL, MI, MN, NH, and VA). This implies that Democrats have greater potential to pick up seats during that cycle.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even if Democrats don't flip the Senate this year, there's still a good chance they can do so in 2020. An analysis done by Sabato's Crystal Ball earlier this year indicate that of the Senate seats up for reelection in 2020, there are a total of 9 potentially competitive seats currently held by Republicans (AK, AZ, CO, GA, IA, LA, ME, MT, and NC) compared to only 5 currently held by Democrats (AL, MI, MN, NH, and VA). This implies that Democrats have greater potential to pick up seats during that cycle.

Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia?
Seriously, will these people ever learn?

[TML]

Even if Democrats don't flip the Senate this year, there's still a good chance they can do so in 2020. An analysis done by Sabato's Crystal Ball earlier this year indicate that of the Senate seats up for reelection in 2020, there are a total of 9 potentially competitive seats currently held by Republicans (AK, AZ, CO, GA, IA, LA, ME, MT, and NC) compared to only 5 currently held by Democrats (AL, MI, MN, NH, and VA). This implies that Democrats have greater potential to pick up seats during that cycle.

Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia?
Seriously, will these people ever learn?

Actually, the Cook PVI ratings for these three states are D+1 each, so in that sense they could be regarded as potentially competitive, especially downballot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems winning TN, and all the tossups except for IN is plausible scenario as MS is still the wildcard in the whole Senate map.

[UWS]

Nope. They are more likely to do it in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can win the Senate as well as the House with a 272 map, without winning OH, FL gubernatorial elections.  Nelson, Brown, McCaskill and Heidi can win red states.  And the House can be won as well.

[Ljube]

Probably.

[cvparty]

no they wouldn’t necessarily have to. they can afford to lose 2 of NV, AZ, TX, TN, FL, ND, MO, and IN and still win a 51-49 majority. a lot of these races are close, but none are out of reach. half are dem incumbents, it’s a midterm—i just realized i’m typing a serious response to a hofoid post, so imma just stop RIGHT here

[Progressive Pessimist]

Probably.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats could definitely win CO, NC, AZ and MT even if Trump wins reelection in 2020 (all of these races are Tossups at best for Republicans), so not necessarily.

[windjammer]

I don't think so. The statut quo or 50-50 after 2018 is likely.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My prediction is currently that The GOP will gain one seat in the senate ( still good result for Dems seeing how terrible the map is this year) .

In 2020 I currently believe the GOP will win back AL and Dems will win back Colorado and if they win the presidency they will also win NC . That makes the senate composition 51-49 . Then they win back the Senate in 2022(even if gop takes back the House that year ).


On other hand if Dems win big in 2020 they will also win AZ special and 1 or two more senate seats and take back the senate 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My prediction is currently that The GOP will gain one seat in the senate ( still good result for Dems seeing how terrible the map is this year) .

In 2020 I currently believe the GOP will win back AL and Dems will win back Colorado and if they win the presidency they will also win NC . That makes the senate composition 51-49 . Then they win back the Senate in 2022(even if gop takes back the House that year ).


On other hand if Dems win big in 2020 they will also win AZ special and 1 or two more senate seats and take back the senate  

Dems gaining 7-9 governorships, will allow to break a tie, or gaining a seat or 2 for the Senate, which means holding their own plus AZ, NV and winning MS runoff.

TN and TX have SSM bans on the ballot and Beto is running far to the left

[Virginiá]

Dems gaining 7-9 governorships, will allow to break a tie, or gaining a seat or 2 for the Senate, which means holding their own plus AZ, NV and winning MS runoff.

TN and TX have SSM bans on the ballot and Beto is running far to the left

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are showing this, TN leading Blackburn

[aaroncd107]

Realistically, we could see Democrats with 52-54 seats in the Senate by the time the dust clears - holding all their seats, gaining AZ, NV, and TX, and two which are a little less favorable, TN and MS. At the same time, you could see them being knocked down to 45.

In 2020, though, the field is wide open. It could be a Republican bloodbath for all we know.
Potentially vulnerable races include:
D - AL, MI, NH
R - AK, AR (only with Beebe,) AZ, CO, GA, IA, KY, LA (only with Edwards or a Landrieu,) ME, MT (only Schweitzer or Bullock,) NC, SC, TX (if Cornyn retires,) WV (probably only Ojeda could realistically win this)

The point? Senate composition could be anywhere between 58R-42D and 32R-68D by January 2021, and it is silly to speculate about the Senate that year when there is already so much on our plate this year. And don’t get me started on 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I say Dems net 2 seats

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If 2020 goes well for Democrats, they could pick up 3 or 4 of CO, AZ, NC, ME, IA, MT, and GA, while losing AL.

[Xing]

If Democrats only come up a couple of seats shy of taking back the Senate (48-50), there's a pretty good chance that they can take it back in 2020. Republicans should be worried about their prospects in the Senate for 2020 and 2022, since those maps will be quite favorable for Democrats, and there aren't many pick-up opportunities for Republicans, even if either of those years ends up being a Republican-leaning year.