AZ-Gov(FOX):Doucey+11
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Author Topic: AZ-Gov(FOX):Doucey+11  (Read 1715 times)
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 12, 2018, 05:44:43 PM »

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2018/09/12/fox-news-poll-912.html

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Doucey (GOP): 51
Garcia (DEM): 40
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2018, 05:58:35 PM »

I don't think Garcia will underperform Sinema by 14 points.

That being said, Lean R.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2018, 05:59:42 PM »

The same poll that has Sinema up 3 has Ducey up 11. Ducey's prospects are looking significantly better than they were a few months ago; it's a Lean R race at this point.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2018, 05:59:56 PM »

McCain bounce
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2018, 06:03:32 PM »

Yeah, Ducey must have gotten a bounce from the McCain stuff. Seems like he's consistently and significantly outperforming now, which wasn't really the case before. Will it last though?
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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2018, 06:11:43 PM »

The gap between this race and the Senatorial race is just something else.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2018, 08:55:01 PM »

RIP Mondale
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Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2018, 08:58:35 PM »

*Spits out Coffee*, what the hell happened?! Im moving this to lean R, thats just too large of a lead. Perhaps it goes down, Im not sure. Gonna keep tabs on this race.
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Green Line
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2018, 09:00:48 PM »

Arizona is a Rpeublican state.  For the last 2 years people on here have been talking like thatís not that case.
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2018, 09:06:50 PM »

Arizona is a Rpeublican state.  For the last 2 years people on here have been talking like thatís not that case.

And Missouri and Ohio were Independent states and Colorado and Virginia were where Arizona is now.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2018, 09:07:12 PM »

Arizona is a Rpeublican state.  For the last 2 years people on here have been talking like thatís not that case.

AZ-08 was a pretty bizarre occurrence (how the hell did Tipinerni swing the district 16 pts!?!?), and many polls showed dems doing much better in AZ than previous years. Ducey's approvals were really poor in the midst of the teacher strikes.

People weren't just making up that AZ is trending blue out of thin air. It seems as if some of the blue wave may be receding in AZ, especially in the Governor race, but people weren't making things up.

And yeah, obviously states can change fast. Look at how the midwest became super red between 2008 and 2010, and 2012 and 2014.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2018, 09:10:38 PM »

There is a theory floating around that Doucey is experiencing a bump from McCain's passing, and that could explain whats going on. I would like another pollster to collaborate the results.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2018, 09:11:23 PM »

Oh and AZ can have GOP govs and Dem SENATORS, while FL, Iowa and GA elect progressives as GOV
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2018, 10:31:09 PM »

Interesting crosstabs, the poll has Trump even in approval, but the poll has 48% Republicans. After looking at the crosstabs, its clear that the poll is rather R friendly, but it does seem that two things are true.
1. Ducey is experiencing a bounce due to McCain

2. Sinema is likely going to stay stagnent, or lose some of her lead
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Pericles
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2018, 11:14:43 PM »

Gotta rate this Lean R at this point.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2018, 06:32:06 AM »

Interesting crosstabs, the poll has Trump even in approval, but the poll has 48% Republicans. After looking at the crosstabs, its clear that the poll is rather R friendly, but it does seem that two things are true.
1. Ducey is experiencing a bounce due to McCain

2. Sinema is likely going to stay stagnent, or lose some of her lead

How does 2. follow from the point you made about the sample being too R-heavy
Its due to the fact that Sinema is leading at 47 with the current sample. And a good portion shes winning are Republicans. Im pretty sure the Rs left in the sample will go against her, which will decrease her lead, but they may go to Sinema simply for the same reason the others did. Overall, I know that Sinema isnt going to be expanding her lead
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2018, 11:13:32 AM »

Am I the only one who noticed the spelling of Ducey's name? Am I missing something here?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2018, 08:09:34 PM »

Am I the only one who noticed the spelling of Ducey's name? Am I missing something here?

A misspelled "douchey" pun perhaps?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2018, 01:59:06 AM »

Am I the only one who noticed the spelling of Ducey's name? Am I missing something here?

A misspelled "douchey" pun perhaps?

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