I thought just hit me. If the AARP had a pole recently showing voters 50 and up preferred Cramer by only three points, does it make any sense that he would be up 4 Points among all voters? Not to me.
The point is, one of those polls almost surely has to be off, so why would it be the AARP pole as opposed to this one?
It is not implausible for Young NDers to be more Republican than older ones.
That said I think this race is probably a bit closer to Dead even
But how is that particularly implausible, though? The fracking argument doesn't make it that much sense because the vast majority of such workers are relatively transient and not likely to be registered voters.
I'm not saying it's impossible, but one must acknowledge that it would be, compared to national polling results, way way out of the national mainstream for younger voters to lean more Republican than the state as a whole, or even to be relatively split between the parties.
I appreciate the fracking suggestion, but it certainly eager for any others from people who are familiar with North Dakota demographics and politics.
