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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  ND-SEN: Cramer leads by 4, 48-44 (FOX)
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Author Topic: ND-SEN: Cramer leads by 4, 48-44 (FOX)  (Read 3196 times)
Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« on: September 12, 2018, 05:27:01 pm »

Cue the panic in 3...

2...

1...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/09/12/fox-news-poll-republican-challenger-ahead-in-north-dakota-senate-race.html
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2018, 05:29:07 pm »

tossup
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2018, 05:29:15 pm »

Not good...but not bad either, considering it's the new trend to consider Heitkamp "DOA." Seems like this race hasn't moved at all since Cramer jumped in. Heitkamp is the underdog, but she could definitely still pull it out.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2018, 05:29:19 pm »

Retail politics = tilt D
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2018, 05:33:20 pm »

Not that surprising of a result, given what we've heard recently. To think I was ridiculed for suggesting that she might do worse than McCaskill and Donnelly in early 2017 Wink. Anyway, Fox is actually a decent  pollster, so this is concerning for Heitkamp, but it's not insurmountable. She could beat the polls again, for all I know.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2018, 05:47:56 pm »

Not insurmountable by any means but it should be concerning for her camp that she has not led in a single poll of this race in a state that is much redder than even 2012. If future polls continue to show Montana being competitive I could easily see her getting triaged
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#Klobmentum
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2018, 05:49:25 pm »

Not insurmountable by any means but it should be concerning for her camp that she has not led in a single poll of this race in a state that is much redder than even 2012. If future polls continue to show Montana being competitive I could easily see her getting triaged

Shes not getting triaged. Regardless of everything, democrats have plenty of money and North Dakota is a cheap state to run ads in.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2018, 05:50:03 pm »

Looks correct.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2018, 05:54:00 pm »

Not insurmountable by any means but it should be concerning for her camp that she has not led in a single poll of this race in a state that is much redder than even 2012. If future polls continue to show Montana being competitive I could easily see her getting triaged

Shes not getting triaged. Regardless of everything, democrats have plenty of money and North Dakota is a cheap state to run ads in.

This nonsense about Heitkamp getting triaged is rapidly becoming a bad joke.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2018, 05:56:47 pm »

Not insurmountable by any means but it should be concerning for her camp that she has not led in a single poll of this race in a state that is much redder than even 2012. If future polls continue to show Montana being competitive I could easily see her getting triaged

Shes not getting triaged. Regardless of everything, democrats have plenty of money and North Dakota is a cheap state to run ads in.

It does not matter if Heidi gets triaged now, she has enough money in her warchest right now for the rest of this race anyways.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2018, 06:00:06 pm »

Lean R.
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Skye
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2018, 06:11:10 pm »

Yikes. Consistent with the takes that she's the most vulnerable Democrat.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2018, 06:26:32 pm »

The overdramatics at this place are really something else. Heidi being down 4 is somehow "YIKES!!! OMG!!!!" worthy. This is a 36pt-Trump-lead state and Kramer can barely get 4% or more ahead of Heidi? It doesn't appear that he seems to be doing much around the state to change that, either. The literally 2 polls we've gotten both have Cramer +4, so add in Heidi's incumbency advantage and the favorable Dem environment, it's another tossup right now.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2018, 06:31:45 pm »

Heitkamp needs to vote for Kavanaugh if she wants to really have a good chance to win
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2018, 06:42:58 pm »

Heitkamp needs to vote for Kavanaugh if she wants to really have a good chance to win

Obviously she is going to vote for Kavanaugh. She is not an idiot.
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MycroftCZ
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« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2018, 06:44:21 pm »

Not a great result but the race hasn’t moved since Cramer jumped in... Heirkamp’a got a lot more money and is running a WAY better campaign. Still a tossup in my book.
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2018, 07:24:24 pm »

Not a great result but the race hasn’t moved since Cramer jumped in... Heirkamp’a got a lot more money and is running a WAY better campaign. Still a tossup in my book.

Yep. Plus, wasn't she just endorsed by the largest farmer's union in the state today?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2018, 07:38:22 pm »

Heitkamp needs to vote for Kavanaugh if she wants to really have a good chance to win

Obviously she is going to vote for Kavanaugh. She is not an idiot.

She's not an idiot when it comes to her electoral prospects, but anyone voting for Kavanaugh is still an idiot when it comes to having any sort of concern for the future of our country.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2018, 08:20:26 pm »

FINALLY, A GOOD POLLSTER TOUCHES THE STATE. Anyway, Im actually surprised this is only R+4. I thought she would be down by more, especially since she was down by 4 in July as well. Perhaps Cramer is rather weak? Or perhaps this race wont change? Time will tell, but this does indicate a tossup, and not lean R race.
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Daines' Bipartisan Bills™
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« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2018, 08:36:12 pm »

Encouraging (and not all that surprising considering that the GOP is running a pretty good campaign in ND), but Tester megacoattails will save her for sure. Likely D.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2018, 08:45:45 pm »

Heitkamp needs to vote for Kavanaugh if she wants to really have a good chance to win

Obviously she is going to vote for Kavanaugh. She is not an idiot.

She's not an idiot when it comes to her electoral prospects, but anyone voting for Kavanaugh is still an idiot when it comes to having any sort of concern for the future of our country.

Agreed – they should really force Trump to nominate Barrett and vote to confirm her instead. I'm not holding out hope, though.
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Mondale
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2018, 08:48:48 pm »

Dont panic....Heidi buttering up thise ND farmers as we speak

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Virginiá
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« Reply #22 on: September 12, 2018, 09:11:30 pm »

Not insurmountable by any means but it should be concerning for her camp that she has not led in a single poll of this race in a state that is much redder than even 2012. If future polls continue to show Montana being competitive I could easily see her getting triaged

When you say 'is much redder than even 2012', are you talking about Trump's win expanding the GOP electorate or something? Because GWB won by somewhat similar margins in both 2000 and 2004. It was almost 30 points in 2000, and while Trump's was bigger, the actual % Trump got was not anything special in comparison to GWB. Most of Trump's extra margin % was just anti-Clinton voters going 3rd party. The only difference I guess is that polarization has locked in more voters for Republicans there, but it's still swingy enough for Democrats to win. Just maybe not as much as they used to. Also keep in mind that over the past 40 years, Democrats have held North Dakota's 2 Senate seats more often than Republicans. (link)

All-in-all, I don't buy this "Trump changed the Dakotas" argument. They were already voting bigly for Republicans a generation ago and Democrats were still winning Senate/House seats there.
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Former Kentuckian
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« Reply #23 on: September 12, 2018, 10:29:10 pm »

Not bad for Heitkamp considering everyone is writing her political obituary. She's hanging in there.
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Skye
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« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2018, 07:13:53 am »

Not insurmountable by any means but it should be concerning for her camp that she has not led in a single poll of this race in a state that is much redder than even 2012. If future polls continue to show Montana being competitive I could easily see her getting triaged

When you say 'is much redder than even 2012', are you talking about Trump's win expanding the GOP electorate or something? Because GWB won by somewhat similar margins in both 2000 and 2004. It was almost 30 points in 2000, and while Trump's was bigger, the actual % Trump got was not anything special in comparison to GWB. Most of Trump's extra margin % was just anti-Clinton voters going 3rd party. The only difference I guess is that polarization has locked in more voters for Republicans there, but it's still swingy enough for Democrats to win. Just maybe not as much as they used to. Also keep in mind that over the past 40 years, Democrats have held North Dakota's 2 Senate seats more often than Republicans. (link)

All-in-all, I don't buy this "Trump changed the Dakotas" argument. They were already voting bigly for Republicans a generation ago and Democrats were still winning Senate/House seats there.

I think it's just that Clinton's 27% in ND was absolutely abysmal and voting has become more polarized since the Bush era.
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