ND-SEN: Cramer leads by 4, 48-44 (FOX)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I thought just hit me. If the AARP had a pole recently showing voters 50 and up preferred Cramer by only three points, does it make any sense that he would be up 4 Points among all voters? Not to me.

The point is, one of those polls almost surely has to be off, so why would it be the AARP pole as opposed to this one?

I mean, it's not impossible. North Dakota is somewhat ancestrally Democratic, and given how a ton of younger voters in the state are in the fracking industry, it's plausible that there isn't a big age gap.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The thing to keep in mind about North Dakota polls is North Dakota is pretty much impossible to properly poll. That is because it DOES NOT HAVE VOTER REGISTRATION.

That difficulty of polling the electorate with any accuracy is probably one of the reasons why Heitkamp overperformed the polls in 2012.