Counties in your state to swing from 2000 to 2004

[nclib]

List all counties in your state to vote Dem in 2000 and Rep in 2004 (or visa versa). If you know any information about said counties, please give a description.

North Carolina

Rep -> Dem

Guilford (Greensboro)
Mecklenburg (Charlotte)

Dem -> Rep

Bladen (rural SE)
Chowan (rural NE)
Columbus (rural SE)
Cumberland (Fayetteville)
Granville (rural NE)
Martin (rural NE)
Tyrrell (rural NE)

[Alcon]

Whatcom County (Bellingham) from Republican to Democrat, due to Nader being off the ballot.

[Cashcow]

Salem and Monmouth, from Dem to Rep.

[DanielX]

Of both my 'real-life' state (Maryland) and my 'fantasy' state (Wyoming), both had only one switch each:

Somerset, MD switched from from Democrat to Republican:
2000:
Gore 49.8% 3,785   
Bush 47.5% 3,609   
Nader 1.9% 142   
Other 0.9% 68

2004:
Kerry 44.9% 4,034   
Bush 54.3% 4,884   
Other 0.8% 76   

Teton, WY switched from Republican to Democrat:
2000:
Gore 38.5% 4,019   
Bush 52.3% 5,454   
Nader 7.3% 764   
Other 1.9% 194

2004:
Kerry 52.6% 5,972   
Bush 45.1% 5,124   
Other 2.3% 263   

[jimrtex]

Culberson, Reeves, Morris, Newton, Robertson, Frio, and Cameron from Dem to GOP

and

Travis from GOP to Dem.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

GOP -> Dem : Alpine and Mono
Dem. -> GOP : none

Too bad not too many other historically very Republican rural Mormon counties decided to vote for Kerry.

[memphis]

This is really depressing, but we did have the home state advantage in 2000 (not that it did any good).

Rep to Dem:
none

Dem to Rep:
Gibson
Crockett
Henry
Decatur
Dickson
Hickman
Lewis
Robertson
Giles
Marshall
Bedford
Marion
Franklin
Warren
Cannon
DeKalb
Campbell

The only one of these that is in a major metro area is Robertson, which is just North of Nashville. The rest are moderate, rural counties. Kerry had respectable results (mostly in the high 40s) in these overwhelmingly white and remote Southern counties. Voting behavior is not nearly as racial (I'm a White who voted for Kerry) here in Tennessee as it is in many Southern states.

[Frodo]

The one county I am aware of that is best known to have switched is Fairfax County.  There may be some others that I don't know about. 

[Alcon]

The one county I am aware of that is best known to have switched is Fairfax County.  There may be some others that I don't know about. 

GOP to Dem
Albemarle County
Fairfax County
Nelson County
Prince Edward County
City of Danville
City of Fairfax

Dem to GOP
Caroline County
Russell County
Southampton County
City of Clifton Forge
City of Norton
City of Suffolk

[Kevinstat]

Whatcom County (Bellingham) from Democrat to Republican, due to Nader being off the ballot.

That should be Republican to Democratic.  Bush won by 0.34% in 2000 (with Nader getting 6.1% of the vote), but Kerry won by 8.82% in 2004.  Bush's % of the vote in Whatcom county did drop between 2000 and 2004 though, from 46.49% to 44.58%.  Bush got 17.5% more votes in the county in 2004 than in 2000, but Kerry got 25.3% more votes in than Gore and Nader had combined in 2000.  The total vote for President in the county was up 22.6%.

[Alcon]

Whatcom County (Bellingham) from Democrat to Republican, due to Nader being off the ballot.

That should be Republican to Democratic.  Bush won by 0.34% in 2000 (with Nader getting 6.1% of the vote), but Kerry won by 8.82% in 2004.  Bush's % of the vote in Whatcom county did drop between 2000 and 2004 though, from 46.49% to 44.58%.  Bush got 17.5% more votes in the county in 2004 than in 2000, but Kerry got 25.3% more votes in than Gore and Nader had combined in 2000.  The total vote for President in the county was up 22.6%.

Oops, yes.  You're right.

I wonder why so many more votes were cast from 2000 to 2004.  Population was only up 8% for the period.

[Kevinstat]

Oh yeah, ...

Maine:

GOP to Dem
Lincoln
Penobsot
Waldo

Dem to GOP
none

The collapse of the Nader vote in Maine as almost everywhere can largely explain these shifts (Bush hadn't won a majority in any of these counties in 2000 and Kerry's margin in all three of them was less than the decline in the Nader vote from 2000 to 2004 as a % of the overall vote), but Bush's share of the vote did go down by about 1.25% in Lincoln County while the combined Democratic and Nader share grew by about 1.62%.  Kerry won Lincoln County with 51.26% of the vote to Bush's 46.83%.  Quite a shift from 1988 when George H. W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis in Lincoln County 61.79% to 37.31%.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[muon2]

Nine counties in IL moved from D to R: Pulaski, Gallatin, Franklin, Perry, Macoupin, Montgomery, Macon, Henry, and LaSalle. They are generally rural, thoush Macon and LaSalle have moderate-sized cities. These were all traditionally Dem counties, two of which (franklin, Gallatin) voted for Mondale over Reagan in 1984. Interestingly, most of these counties did better for Reagan in 1980 than in 1984.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nine counties in IL moved from D to R: Pulaski, Gallatin, Franklin, Perry, Macoupin, Montgomery, Macon, Henry, and LaSalle. They are generally rural, thoush Macon and LaSalle have moderate-sized cities. These were all traditionally Dem counties, two of which (franklin, Gallatin) voted for Mondale over Reagan in 1984. Interestingly, most of these counties did better for Reagan in 1980 than in 1984.

What's interesting about some of those counties, is that there seems to have been a large direct shift of Gore voters to Bush, rather than a moderate shift and a high GOP turnout.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania:

Dem -> GOP

Carbon
Mercer
Lawrence
Greene
Cambria

GOP -> Dem

none, but we made significant gains in Chester which was virtually solid GOP now on the brink of becoming Dem.  We also fell 4 (not a typo) votes short in Monroe County, which NEVER went Dem since LBJ.  Montgomery and Delaware also had sizzling Democratic performance which was unprecedented.

[muon2]

Nine counties in IL moved from D to R: Pulaski, Gallatin, Franklin, Perry, Macoupin, Montgomery, Macon, Henry, and LaSalle. They are generally rural, thoush Macon and LaSalle have moderate-sized cities. These were all traditionally Dem counties, two of which (franklin, Gallatin) voted for Mondale over Reagan in 1984. Interestingly, most of these counties did better for Reagan in 1980 than in 1984.

What's interesting about some of those counties, is that there seems to have been a large direct shift of Gore voters to Bush, rather than a moderate shift and a high GOP turnout.

If the behavior in 1980 is a clue, then I think nationalism played a role in the 2004 vote. In 1980 Carter was seen as allowing America to be weak in the world. Despite his personal diplomacy with Egypt and Israel, the Iran hostage drama continued to define Carter's foreign policy. Populists with a strong nationalist streak would be drawn to Reagan. In 1984, the nation was looking stronger again, but the intervening recession was enough to put some D-leaning voters back with Mondale.

In 2004 the impact of 9/11 was a dominant theme. Kerry had the appearance on an appeaser in the Carter mold. For those D-leaning populists they again would be drawn to the strong-sounding words of Bush, as they were to Reagan in 1980.

Obviously the voters are different than in 1980. They are a full generation removed from the Reagan win. However, to the exent that nationalism makes up part of the rural culture, it could have been a common factor in both 1980 and 2004.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

GOP-->Dem

Kittson (the economy took precedence over social issues this time)
Mahnomen (higher Native American turnout)
Norman (a combination of the above two factors)
Koochiching (economy over social issues again)
Cook (much smaller Nader factor)
Chippewa (ditto)
Blue Earth (much smaller Nader factor again + mobilized college students [my home county, yeah!])
Nicollet (same as Blue Earth)

Dem-->GOP

Aitkin (more mobilized Republicans)
Lincoln (a long running Republican trend finally took it)

[phk]

GOP -> Dem : Alpine and Mono
Dem. -> GOP : none

Too bad not too many other historically very Republican rural Mormon counties decided to vote for Kerry.

I'v been weirded out about Alpine and Mono. Why on earth would these switch?

[Alcon]

GOP -> Dem : Alpine and Mono
Dem. -> GOP : none

Too bad not too many other historically very Republican rural Mormon counties decided to vote for Kerry.

I'v been weirded out about Alpine and Mono. Why on earth would these switch?

Alpine County had strange demographics - 20% Native American, 40% Mormon, 60% non-churchgoing.  It probably was a matter of who turned out.

Mono County has a healthy tourism industry, with several ski resorts.

[phk]

GOP -> Dem : Alpine and Mono
Dem. -> GOP : none

Too bad not too many other historically very Republican rural Mormon counties decided to vote for Kerry.

I'v been weirded out about Alpine and Mono. Why on earth would these switch?

Alpine County had strange demographics - 20% Native American, 40% Mormon, 60% non-churchgoing.  It probably was a matter of who turned out.

Mono County has a healthy tourism industry, with several ski resorts.

But they haven't gone GOP since like 1936 or 1940. Why support Goldwater, Bush Sr, Dole.. and than suddenly support Kerry? It seems weird.

[Jake]

Pennsylvania:

Dem -> GOP

Carbon
Mercer
Lawrence
Greene
Cambria

GOP -> Dem

none, but we made significant gains in Chester which was virtually solid GOP now on the brink of becoming Dem.  We also fell 4 (not a typo) votes short in Monroe County, which NEVER went Dem since LBJ.  Montgomery and Delaware also had sizzling Democratic performance which was unprecedented.

Opposite happened in Luzerne where Bush came within 4% and Washington (0.5%).

[TeePee4Prez]

I'll say that Washington will go GOP next time around, but Luzerne is interesting to say the least.  You have an exurban trend which may tilt it Democratic, you still have Hazelton and Wilkes-Barre, but you also have a lot of social conservatives and that seems to be in fashion as of late for the GOP.  Luzerne and Carbon are strange animals to say the least.  I think Carbon could move back as well.

[Jake]

Simply put, Luzerne County's Democratic organization is pitiful. The GOP ground game just obliterated them here. Now, if they can't get their act together and deliver a big (57-43+) victory here for Casey, the race will tighten a great deal.

[© tweed]

Cayuga, Seneca, Montgomery, Sullivan, Rockland from D ---> R

[nclib]

Didn't Richmond (Staten Island) switch too?