FL-GOV Chamber of Commerce: Gillum +4

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/274497-andrew-gillum-leads-ron-desantis-in-florida-chamber-poll

Gillum 47
DeSantis 43

'The spread is 47-43, with Gillum ahead in every major media market but Jacksonville.'

[Politician]

I think it's time to call this Lean D. DeSantis is a disaster.

[junior chįmp]

I think it's time to call this Lean D. DeSantis is a disaster.

If FL Chamber of Commerce has Gillum leading then DeSantis is done

[Tender Branson]

If the Chamber of Commerce (R) has Gillium ahead, it means he's really ahead.

I hope he can keep it up until election day and drag Nelson over the finish line as well.

[ajc0918]

Gillum needs to define himself before the GOP does but he does seem to be slightly ahead. The race shouldn't be lean D until he wins (lol). I still don't trust democrats to close out a race.

That being said, DeSantis' constant negative media coverage seems to be hurting him.

[Xing]

Imagine telling Atlas in 2017 that the Sanders-endorsed candidate would win the Democratic primary in Florida and overperform Nelson in the GE.  Anyway, still a Toss-up for now, but I'd rather be Gillum than DeSantis right now.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tilt D.

The fake Atlas progressives that expect 90 percent of the black vote will still say it's the Bradley effect.

[Zaybay]

This is the nail in the "tossup FLGOV race" narrative. If Gillum is leading by 4 in an R pollster, then DeSantis is not close. This is a lean D race, folks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

But muh Bradley Affect!!

[Virginiá]

This is the nail in the tossup FLGOV race. If Gillum is leading by 4 in an R pollster, then DeSantis is not close. This is a lean D race, folks.

How exactly are tossups rated by most people? I saw someone else post that RCP generally rates any race that is consistently within 5 points or less on either side as tossups, and 5 - 10 are Lean D/R. So just as an example, this would still be a tossup by RCP's system.

On the other hand, my own views are generally not strictly data-oriented. If the race is consistently D+2 or D+3 or whatever, and I don't believe there is any reason it will ever go below that, then I'd put it as Leans D myself, even though it's still within the MoE (more or less).

[Zaybay]

This is the nail in the tossup FLGOV race. If Gillum is leading by 4 in an R pollster, then DeSantis is not close. This is a lean D race, folks.

How exactly are tossups rated by most people? I saw someone else post that RCP generally rates any race that is consistently within 5 points or less on either side as tossups, and 5 - 10 are Lean D/R. So just as an example, this would still be a tossup by RCP's system.

On the other hand, my own views are generally not strictly data-oriented. If the race is consistently D+2 or D+3 or whatever, and I don't believe there is any reason it will ever go below that, then I'd put it as Leans D myself, even though it's still within the MoE (more or less).

I use polls and state variables

In FL for instance, Gillum has a lead of around 3 points. Normally, this would point to a tossup. But the state, FL, is known for being resistant to waves and swinging, so Gillum leading by that is actually worth more than, say, a Democrat in MA leading by 4. There is also the time placement of the polls(this should have been Ron's best moment) and other small things that lead me to say Lean D.

[Scottholes 2.0]

A lean D race. This seems like a good year to be a Democrat. Can't wait to see what happens in November!

[Ronnie]

If Gillum wins, it's hard for me to imagine Nelson losing.  Who on earth would vote for both Gillum and Scott?

[Scottholes 2.0]

If Gillum wins, it's hard for me to imagine Nelson losing.  Who on earth would vote for both Gillum and Scott?

Ticket-splitters maybe?

[Ronnie]

If Gillum wins, it's hard for me to imagine Nelson losing.  Who on earth would vote for both Gillum and Scott?

Ticket-splitters maybe?

I mean, obviously.  But what would be the profile of someone voting for a progressive like Gillum and a right winger like Scott?  I don't think there will be very many people like that.

[Zaybay]

If Gillum wins, it's hard for me to imagine Nelson losing.  Who on earth would vote for both Gillum and Scott?

Ticket-splitters maybe?

I mean, obviously.  But what would be the profile of someone voting for a progressive like Gillum and a right winger like Scott?  I don't think there will be very many people like that.

FL is also not known for ticket splitting. Im pretty sure that if Gillum wins, Nelson wins as well.

[wbrocks67]

At this point, I would't be surprised by Gillum winning by like 3 and Nelson winning by 1.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The voters putting Gillum over the top are not voting for Voldemort.

[Blair]

I do love how the Atlas freakout over Gillum disguised the fact that the GOP nominating a glorified fox pundit was a massive own goal.

[Roblox]

Remember when atlas was calling this safe R the night Gillum won the primary? LMAO.

[Scottholes 2.0]

If Gillum wins, it's hard for me to imagine Nelson losing.  Who on earth would vote for both Gillum and Scott?

Ticket-splitters maybe?

I mean, obviously.  But what would be the profile of someone voting for a progressive like Gillum and a right winger like Scott?  I don't think there will be very many people like that.

True. I feel the same way about Walker and Baldwin here in WI.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Glad that a Sanders-backed candidate is doing well.

[Donerail]

If Gillum wins, it's hard for me to imagine Nelson losing.  Who on earth would vote for both Gillum and Scott?

Ticket-splitters maybe?

I mean, obviously.  But what would be the profile of someone voting for a progressive like Gillum and a right winger like Scott?  I don't think there will be very many people like that.

the key is to understand that the vast majority of americans do not have a coherent political ideology or position on any political spectrum

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Gillum wins, it's hard for me to imagine Nelson losing.  Who on earth would vote for both Gillum and Scott?

Ticket-splitters maybe?

I mean, obviously.  But what would be the profile of someone voting for a progressive like Gillum and a right winger like Scott?  I don't think there will be very many people like that.

FL is also not known for ticket splitting. Im pretty sure that if Gillum wins, Nelson wins as well.

1. Someone who was devastated by the hurricane and credits Scott with the recovery process.
2. Jaded berniebro who only votes for “true progressives”

[Arkansas Yankee]

So Gillum seem to established a uniform lead of about 3-4%. There are question though.

Is the polling better than it was in 2016, when it was biased to Hillary?

Will it hold up under the coming attacks?

Will the Florida Democrats be able to sustain a ground game to get their vote out?

I think DeSantis made a big mistake resigning.

Oh well, if Gillum wins, his program will be DOA in the legislature.