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October 29, 2020, 12:31:47 PM

  Talk Elections
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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
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Author Topic: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4  (Read 2355 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: September 11, 2018, 06:32:22 PM »

http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2018/09/11/decision-2018--gillum-and-desantis-to-face-close-race



Gillum leads with independents 42-32.
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2018, 06:33:09 PM »

YESSS
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2018, 06:34:26 PM »

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KingSweden
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2018, 06:39:11 PM »

SurveyUSA is kinda meh but we’ve seen consistent Gillum leads in every poll
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mollybecky
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2018, 06:42:37 PM »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2018, 06:45:11 PM »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2018, 06:58:43 PM »

Conservatives say that the Gubernatorial map will reflect presidential map, not always, as Nelson is giving strength to GILLUM Momentum😁
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Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2018, 07:03:44 PM »

Gillum has had a consistent lead this whole time, I wonder if this means that perhaps he is favored in this race? Nah, that FBI investigation will bring him down......eventually......any time now



So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.
Yeah, this doesnt exist
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2018, 07:05:43 PM »

Gillum up 10 with independents and 27 with moderates.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2018, 07:23:38 PM »

SurveyUSA is kinda meh but we’ve seen consistent Gillum leads in every poll

Meh?  I've always thought they were very solid.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2018, 07:25:24 PM »

Gillum up 10 with independents and 27 with moderates.

But the pundits told me that progressive Democrats can't win moderates at all.
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Elastic Iowan Going Nuclear on Joni
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2018, 07:29:32 PM »

Tilt D, closer to Lean D than Toss-up.
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2018, 07:34:08 PM »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.

Yes it can.
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mollybecky
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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2018, 07:34:20 PM »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect
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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2018, 08:07:12 PM »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect
No offense, but this article proves nothing. A black man has won Florida in a statewide contest twice in the past 10 years. Polarization is as high as ever. There is no reason a Republican would lie and say they are voting for Gillum.
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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2018, 08:14:24 PM »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

No Bradley Effect occurred with Obama in Florida.
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Badger
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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2018, 08:15:32 PM »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

No Bradley Effect occurred with Obama in Florida.

Or anywhere else for that matter.
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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2018, 08:35:46 PM »

Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2018, 08:41:34 PM »

Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?
Yeah, this is really dumb. There is no Bradley effect, or Shy Tory effect, or whatever. Gillum is leading. Deal with it.
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Mondale
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« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2018, 08:56:05 PM »

Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?

The Bradley effect probably used to exist in the 80s and 90s but doesn't anymore.

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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2018, 08:57:44 PM »

Booker can win FL in 2020, too.
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Very Legal & Very Cool
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« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2018, 08:58:50 PM »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.

The Bradley effect has been thoroughly discounted.
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#Joemala2020
RFKFan68
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« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2018, 09:02:26 PM »

If anything Gillum is going to overperform.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2018, 09:05:02 PM »

What's interesting is that this is an LV screen model, as opposed to an RV model.

Although Florida is an extremely tricky State to poll, because of a wide range of Metro Areas, fast changing population and demographic changes (Much like Texas), we are starting to see some interesting numbers in recent polls contrary to political conventional wisdom (CW).

I wonder to what extent the "Medicare for All" part of his platform is resonating among Senior Anglo swing voters, in a State with a high % of retirees that are quite comfortable with Medicare???

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/aarp-politico-florida-poll.html
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mollybecky
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« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2018, 09:13:42 PM »

What's interesting is that this is an LV screen model, as opposed to an RV model.

Although Florida is an extremely tricky State to poll, because of a wide range of Metro Areas, fast changing population and demographic changes (Much like Texas), we are starting to see some interesting numbers in recent polls contrary to political conventional wisdom (CW).

I wonder to what extent the "Medicare for All" part of his platform is resonating among Senior Anglo swing voters, in a State with a high % of retirees that are quite comfortable with Medicare???

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/aarp-politico-florida-poll.html

The "Medicare for All" would probably have more of an impact with the 50-64 year old voter--where health insurance premiums are ridiculous with high deductibles, narrow networks, and poor coverage.    To create this option may be resonating with these voters--by getting access to Medicare, they would effectively get a larger access to doctors and hospitals (over 90% of doctors participate in Medicare) and have a higher level of coverage than what is available with private insurance HMOs.
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