A continuation...
Alright, 1, the races that you mention, MA and IL, had special circumstances that allowed the GOP to win them. If you were to say in 2009, that the GOP would pick them up, everyone would think you are crazy. Same with AL-2017, so I will stay away from predicting those.
2. The GOP strength that can be gained in a wave would be much weaker than before. The GOP has a downward trend when it comes to national strength, so, while at their demographic height in 2010, they may have gotten R+7.5, in 2024, they can likely get only R+6.
Anyway, the disputed races....
NV - NV would have changed since 2018. The state would have become more D, more inelastic, and more urban. The state would also have a large Hispanic population, who, while dropping in midterms, would show up in 2024. Add in an incumbent, and the Reid Machine, and its hard to see a victory. Sure, Brian may make it competitive, but its possible he would be a retread, and not so popular. Only one retread has ever really worked, and thats Bredesen.
AZ - Most of the same reasons as NV, but even more inelastic. And by 2024, or two presidential cycles, at its current trend, the state would be around CO blue. And while CO voted for an R in 2014, it took a scandal plagued candidate and an R wave, and Sinema, an incumbent would likely not have that problem.
NM - Susana running for this seat would make it safe D, no question. Not only is she a retread, but shes also basically a Pawlenty, being super unpopular leaving office. While NM has a weak R bench, literally anyone would do better than her in the end. But, again, the same reasons as the previous two.
MN - Two words:Amy Klobachar. I mean, thats all I really have to say...
WI - This is the same as Susana, a terrible choice. The bench is stronger in WI, and I could see a decent challenge to Baldwin. But the state is trending D, and it would be hard to erode at Baldwin's rather large floor.
MI - 1994 was a lifetime in the political sense, and cant really be applied here. Anyway, its unknown which way the state will go, as Trump winning it could have been a fluke, but Detroit has been gaining people, or being stagnant, so the D base isnt falling out. I would say this race is the most likely to flip of the 3 in the Midwest, but thats like a 15%, thanks to the strong incumbent.
VA - This is basically speculation of what if the best and greatest VAGOP member came down and saved the VAGOP. Well, two things
1. The VAGOP has gone far-right, so I dont see a moderate hero winning it anytime soon
2. By this point, the VAGOP would have been gerrymandered out, so their bench is rather weak, and untraconservative.
Not really a chance of occurring.
PA - Yes, both have won senate races. But this is vs an incumbent, and not only that, but an uber popular incumbent that regularly wins by double digits. It would take a lot, and the state trending hard R, for him to lose, and both would likely not occur.
ME - This is the largest stretch of them all. Even though he is a moderate, he is still a Liberal, and would have no reason to suddenly switch sides. This race is not on the table for a wave with him in charge, and predicting his retirement is pointless.
So yeah, all of these still dont have a good chance of flipping, even in an R wave year.
