US-SEN 2020: Who's running?

[wesmoorenerd]

Who are the strongest recruits on both sides in 2020 Senate seats?

AL: Bradley Byrne, maybe one of the other Reps, perhaps a state senator or mayor

AK: Since Mark Begich seems to be destroying his goodwill, I'll go with Ethan Berkowitz or Bill Wielechowski

CO: Probably John Hickenlooper, followed by Ed Perlmutter

GA: I've heard a lot of rumors about Teresa Tomlinson and Scott Holcomb, so I'll defer to that judgement

IA: Short of running Tom Vilsack (who I doubt runs), I'd go with Dave Loebsack (Abby Finkenauer would be a great candidate, with the important caveat that she'd be one of the youngest Senators ever by far)

MT: Bullock or bust for the Dems pretty much

NC: One of Dan McCready (if he wins this year), Anthony Foxx, or Jeff Jackson

TX: Either Castro, although neither would run

[Politician]

Alaska: Ethan Berkowitz
Arizona: Ruben Gallego and Greg Stanton
Arkansas: Mike Beebe but I doubt he runs
Colorado: John Hickenlooper and Ed Perlmutter
Georgia: Stacey Abrams if she loses this year, otherwise Scott Holcomb or Teresa Tomlinson
Idaho: Lol who cares
Iowa: Tom Vilsack or Abby Finkanauer
Kansas: Carl Brewer or Josh Svaty
Kentucky: Amy McGrath? Jim Gray?
Louisiana: Mitch Landrieu (Edwards won't run for this)
Maine: Troy Jackson, Mark Eves or Chellie Pingree
Mississippi: Ronnie Musgrove or Brandon Presley
Montana: Bullock!
Nebraska:
North Carolina: Jeff Jackson, or Anthony Foxx
Oklahoma: Brad Henry?
South Carolina: Stephen K. Benjamin?
South Dakota: Brendan Johnson?
Tennessee: Jim Cooper?
Texas: Either of the Castro brothers
West Virginia: Richard Ojeda ofc
Wyoming: Dave Freudenthal but I doubt he runs

[TarHeelDem]

Not as familiar with the bench in other states but I think Jeff Jackson is our best play here in NC.

[wesmoorenerd]

Not as familiar with the bench in other states but I think Jeff Jackson is our best play here in NC.

Yeah, I've been hearing about him for a while now. He seems like he'd be phenomenal.

What do you think of Foxx?

[Dr. MB]

Steve Bullock.

Bill Wielechowski.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't see Hickenlooper being interested in a senate run. He seems like one of those executive type politicians.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO, ME, KS and NC are in the Dems target list

[I’m not Stu]

Gardner's approval rating is very low.

[Del Tachi]

What about Josh Stein in North Carolina?  He seems like a good candidate to me

Also, Sally Yates in Georgia.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Teresa Tomlinson and Scott Holcomb hopefully.

Sally Yates isn't happening.

[Alabama_Indy10]

What about Josh Stein in North Carolina?  He seems like a good candidate to me

Also, Sally Yates in Georgia.

I’d put money on Josh Stein running

[I’m not Stu]

If Brian Kemp wins the governorship, why couldn't Stacey Abrams run for Senate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see, but Collins is vulnerable in ME, and Iowa isn't a Lean R state, should Hubbell win. KS is a shot due to Roberts age

[Continential]

Georgia Why Not Evans

Arkansas Beebe or Conner Eldridge

[aaroncd107]

If Ojeda can win in a somewhat comfortable way, I’d like to see him run for Senate or Governor. Governor might be better so he can be in a position to run for Manchin’s seat when and if he leaves.

[aaroncd107]

We will see, but Collins is vulnerable in ME, and Iowa isn't a Lean R state, should Hubbell win. KS is a shot due to Roberts age

I think Svaty or Welder could try and run for an open seat in KS, but it would have to be a perfect alignment of the stars for them to win with Trump at the top of the ticket. Orman or Kelly could try too, whichever of them loses this year.

[😥]

Alabama: Bradley Byrne or Robert Aderholt
Alaska: Ethan Berkowitz
Arizona: dems Ruben Gallego and Greg Stanton
             reps David Schweikert and Debbie Lesko
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Georgia: Teresa Tomlinson
Idaho: Raul Labrador or Brad Little
Iowa: Tom Vilsack or Abby Finkanauer
Kansas: Paul Davis
Kentucky: Andy Beshear?
Louisiana: Mitch Landrieu (Edwards won't run for this in 2020)
Montana: Steve Bullock
North Carolina: Jeff Jackson or Anthony Foxx
Tenessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: one of Castro

[GoldenMainer]

Not as familiar with the bench in other states but I think Jeff Jackson is our best play here in NC.

I've had my eye on him for a while.

For Maine, there's just one option for me. Troy Jackson. He's progressive, a logger with blue collar appeal, from the more conservative second district. He checks off all the boxes needed to win statewide. Pingree is progressive but from a liberal island in the first district. And I'm sure Republicans can dig up some dirt on her ex-husband Donald Sussman and try to use it against her.

Also, keep an eye on Erin Herbig (current state rep running for state senate this year). She has a bright future ahead of her.

[Senator Incitatus]

I won't put any races as SAFE this far out, but here would be my preliminary rankings:

LIKELY D – DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

LEAN D – CO (flip), MI, MN, NH

TOSS UP – AZ, NC

LEAN R – IA, KY, ME, MT

LIKELY R – AL (flip), AK, AR, GA, ID, KS, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

As every cycle, we'll see what happens with:

* Incumbent retirements, especially in KY, ME, TN, TX. (The incumbent has a serious advantage except in KY, where I think McConnell retiring would shore up the seat as Republican.

* As already asked: Who's running (as challengers)?

* President Trump and the 2020 Democratic nominee.

* The economy.

But right now, I'd range it as R+1 to D+2.

[JMT]

The best recruits for each state (note: some of these people definitely will not run)

AL: Bradley Byrne
AZ-Special: Martha McSally (if she loses this year), Greg Stanton
AR: Mike Beebe (he won't run, but Dems can dream)
CO: John Hickenlooper (after he ends his run for President), Ed Perlmutter
DE: Ken Simpler??
GA: Stacey Abrams
ID: ??
IL: ??
IA: Tom Vilsack
KS: Josh Svaty, Carl Brewer
KY: Amy McGrath (even if she loses narrowly this year)
LA: Mitch Landrieu, John Bel Edwards (he won't run)
ME: Chellie Pingree
MA: Charlie Baker (unlikely to run), Karyn Polito (but probably will run for Gov in 2022 instead)
MI: Brian Calley
MN: Tom Emmer?
MS: Jim Hood (won't run, seems to be running for Gov in 2019)
MT: Steve Bullock (after he unsuccessfully runs for President)
NE: Pete Festersen
NH: Chris Sununu, Kelly Ayotte
NJ: ??
NM: ?? (I would've said Susana Martinez, but she's not all too popular anymore)
NC: Anthony Foxx
OK: Dan Boren?
OR:
RI: ??
SC: ??
TN: James Mackler?
TX: Either Castro (I don't expect either to run, though)
VA: Rob Wittman, Barbara Comstock (if she miraculously wins reelection in Nov)
WV: Richard Ojeda, Earl Ray Tomblin
WY: Dave Freudenthal (he won't run, but Dems can dream)

[I’m not Stu]

Possible candidates.

AL: Bradley Byrne, Mo Brooks, Robert Aderholt
AZ-Special: Martha McSally (if she loses in 2018), Ruben Gallego
AR: Mike Beebe, Jared Henderson?
CO: John Hickenlooper, Ed Perlmutter
DE: Mike Castle
GA: Stacey Abrams, Jason Carter
ID: Paulette Jordan, AJ Balukoff
IL: Darin LaHood
IA: Tom Vilsack, Fred Hubbell
KS: Josh Svaty, Carl Brewer, Kris Kobach, Jeff Colyer
KY: Amy McGrath, Andy Beshear
LA: Mitch Landrieu, John Bel Edwards, David DuKKKe
ME: Chellie Pingree, Troy Jackson
MA: Charlie Baker, Karyn Polito, Bill Weld, Joe Kennedy
MI: Brian Calley, Bill Schuette
MN: Jeff Johnson
MS: Jim Hood, Brandon Presley
MT: Steve Bullock
NE: Chris Beutler
NH: Chris Sununu
NJ: Bob Hugin, Phil Murphy (if Booker runs for President)
NM: Steve Pearce
NC: Anthony Foxx, Jeff Jackson
OK: Brad Henry, Drew Edmondson, Mick Cornett
OR: Knute Buehler
RI: Allan Fung
SC: James Smith
TN: James Mackler
TX: Joaquin Castro
VA: Rob Wittman
WV: Richard Ojeda, Earl Ray Tomblin
WY: Dave Freudenthal, Mary Throne, Foster Friess

[NewYorkExpress]

Not as familiar with the bench in other states but I think Jeff Jackson is our best play here in NC.

I've had my eye on him for a while.

For Maine, there's just one option for me. Troy Jackson. He's progressive, a logger with blue collar appeal, from the more conservative second district. He checks off all the boxes needed to win statewide. Pingree is progressive but from a liberal island in the first district. And I'm sure Republicans can dig up some dirt on her ex-husband Donald Sussman and try to use it against her.

Also, keep an eye on Erin Herbig (current state rep running for state senate this year). She has a bright future ahead of her.

When you give Pingree without a first name, are you talking about Chellie (who won't run) or Hannah (who could run, but might be better off running for Governor in 2022, or Senate in 2024, regardless of whether King retires).

[Senator Incitatus]

Some commentary on the two races I am most familiar with:

Massachusetts:

Baker will almost definitely not run. He has no interest in DC and less interest in running on a slate with Trump. Polito might, but it's still unlikely.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Markey forced out by Moulton, Kennedy, or both. Maybe Pressley even jumps in if it's an open race, though I don't see her winning.

New Jersey:

If Booker is still in the Senate, smart/competitive Republicans (Kean, Ciattarelli, hypothetically Webber) probably stay out. Maybe Guadagno plays sacrificial lamb again or Lonegan takes another hopeless swing. Sleeper is someone like Shaun Golden, but he's probably holding out for 2021. Kelly Yaede is constantly mentioned in these conversations but is not a serious candidate and will probably not be re-elected next year.

On the Democratic side, it's the usual suspects – Fulop, Sweeney, Gottheimer, Pallone. Fulop is the most likely to survive a primary. Sleepers include Vin Gopal, Reed Gusciora, and Mikie Sherrill. The Democratic bench in NJ is extremely deep. Van Drew is almost certainly too conservative to gain traction, and none of the other House incumbents (or Malinowski) is compelling. I won't even go into potential Assembly members who might run.

[Mycool]

Some of these may be stronger predictions than others

Arizona: Greg Stanton, Kelli Ward (already announced)
Colorado: Hickenlooper or Cary Kennedy
Georgia: Teresa Tomlinson or Michelle Nunn
Illinois: Cheri Bustos (ugh she should be speaker, but I’ll take her in the senate)
Iowa: Abby Finkenauer or Cindy Axne (if either or both wins this year)
Kansas: I could see Orman trying this again, Coyler could run a comeback campaign (or Kobach if he loses), I’d love to see Sebelius run, but I think she has zero interest, but maybe Brewer could be convinced
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes or Amy McGrath (if she wins), I think Beshear clears the field for governor, so this will be what ALG looks to. Mitch is even more reviled now, so it may be a race to watch
Louisiana: give this seat back to a Landrieu (Mitch)
Maine: Chellie Pingree seems to be the best choice, and could make Collins sweat if (when) she bungles the Kavanaugh vote
Massachusetts: if Markey retires, I would bet Maura Healey goes for this seat
Montana: Bullock is really Democrats’ best/only choice
New Hampshire: Sununu will run for this, lose, and Democrats will take the Governor’s mansion
New Jersey: Booker if he’s not somewhere on the ticket, if he is, it’s probably Sheila Oliver or Mikie Sherrill (again, if she wins)
Texas: hopefully one of the Castro brothers?
Virginia: there’s some buzz that Warner retires, if so, it’s either Justin Fairfax or Jennifer Wexton
Wyoming: ugh, get used to Senator Liz Cheney

[Webnicz]

At the Maricopa County Democratic Convention on Saturday, Ruben Gallego was asked in front of the audience and he made it pretty obvious that he wants to run.