NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Those TX 23rd numbers are starting to get nauseating.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Both Valadao and Hurd did strongly outperform their party's presidential nominee in 2016. (Though I suppose Paulsen did too.)

Hurd got about 1% more of the vote than Trump. That is not exactly impressive over-performance given that the Clinton-Trump race drew off a greater than normal number of 3rd party voters (relatively high Libertarian and Green vote).

Valadao is a somewhat different story - he did run well ahead of Trump, but on the other hand he was not facing a really serious and well-funded challenge.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Ackchyually, Paulsen had a tough race running for an open seat in 2008 of all years. Which makes the fact that he might get Blanched even more insane.

I know that and agree. "DOA incumbent who has never had a tough race who is about to get triaged" was meant as a paraphrase of what I heard other people saying about Paulsen on Atlas, not what I think.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Those TX 23rd numbers are starting to get nauseating.

LOL, it is fine. Right now they only have gotten 37% of the sample non-white, as compared to their target of 48%. Despite that, Ortiz-Jones is only behind 51-43 (with a very high MOE still). The weighting will start to bring up the non-white share of the projected electorate as they get more responses.

[Sorenroy]

So Republicans are leading in every House race polled so far, except one in suburban Minneapolis. Why do we think the House is going to flip again?

Assuming that all seven completed polls so far are 100% accurate (in terms of the final two party margin), none of these districts are necessarily on the list of must takes for Democrats to win back the House. In fact, 538's current deluxe model shows that these polls fit right where we expect them to be in a 228-207 Democratic win.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So Republicans are leading in every House race polled so far, except one in suburban Minneapolis. Why do we think the House is going to flip again?

Assuming that all seven completed polls so far are 100% accurate (in terms of the final two party margin), none of these districts are necessarily on the list of must takes for Democrats to win back the House. In fact, 538's current deluxe model shows that these polls fit right where we expect them to be in a 228-207 Democratic win.

If any of these races is a "must win" for Dems, it's CA-48.  Though that race might not be decided until weeks after the election, so we'll almost certainly know the national result first.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Those TX 23rd numbers are starting to get nauseating.

LOL, it is fine. Right now they only have gotten 37% of the sample non-white, as compared to their target of 48%. Despite that, Ortiz-Jones is only behind 51-43 (with a very high MOE still). The weighting will start to bring up the non-white share of the projected electorate as they get more responses.

I mean Hurd can still win and not be an ominous sign for the rest of the seats, but it can't be by the current margin.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Those TX 23rd numbers are starting to get nauseating.

LOL, it is fine. Right now they only have gotten 37% of the sample non-white, as compared to their target of 48%. Despite that, Ortiz-Jones is only behind 51-43 (with a very high MOE still). The weighting will start to bring up the non-white share of the projected electorate as they get more responses.

I mean Hurd can still win and not be an ominous sign for the rest of the seats, but it can't be by the current margin.

Re: the non-white number, I think I was looking at the wrong # when I posted the above - that is the % that they have in the sample, but they do already seem to have the weight for non-white higher. So that may not help as much as I was thinking.

If Hurd wins by the margin currently in the poll, that is certainly not a good sign, but it does seem pretty clear that there is a fairly sharp distinction between different sorts of districts. The Dem surge is much more focused on college educated whites than Hispanics.

The more concerning bit to me about the TX-23 poll is actually that at the moment at least, Hurd is winning College educated whites 68-23 (beware small sample of only 96).

If that is at least somewhat close to right, it is hard to imagine Beto doing huge amounts better than Ortiz-Jones, and Beto absolutely has to do waaay better than that with College whites to have any chance of making TX actually competitive. So if that holds up, it suggests that the Beto hype may indeed be overhyped, as I have kinda-sorta suspected given my username...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And the other thing to notice is that there is hardly any difference between the Senate race and the House race

51-42 in favor of Hurd

and

51-44 in favor of Cruz

That is not exactly a picture of Beto over-performing by a lot, and is not a picture of Cruz being a "weak candidate," Beto a "strong candidate who is running the best campaign ever" and Hurd a "strong candidate. Rather, both races are about the same, regardless of the "strength" of candidates.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I wonder why they polled so few people in VA-07 today.

[Zaybay]

Love it when Atlas discards a candidate based on a poll that uses 2014 for its sample, has multiple flaws, and has a small sample of only 500 people. But I guess Atlas will be Atlas.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Love it when Atlas discards a candidate based on a poll that uses 2014 for its sample, has multiple flaws, and has a small sample of only 500 people. But I guess Atlas will be Atlas.

It doesn't just use 2014 for its sample (although for a district like TX-23 especially, that probably wouldn't be too far off).

[Zaybay]

Love it when Atlas discards a candidate based on a poll that uses 2014 for its sample, has multiple flaws, and has a small sample of only 500 people. But I guess Atlas will be Atlas.

It doesn't just use 2014 for its sample (although for a district like TX-23 especially, that probably wouldn't be too far off).

No, they do, its in the official methodology that thats what they use. 2014 is the baseline for these polls.

[Xing]

Interesting how some Republican posters suddenly took an interest in this thread the second certain polls started to show a few leads larger than 1% for Republicans, and now some are even praising the New York Times. Interesting times indeed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, I'm not going to look at that page ever again. I already have enough stupid, pointless things to stress about in relation to the election as it is. I'll look at these polls' results only when 538 adds them to their model (and only to the extent that they actually affect Dem's odds).

[Arkansas Yankee]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1039226998449692672

Something to think about.

Listen, I understand that Siena polls showing a GOPer doing well is not a guarantee the GOPer will be elected
.
But they also show the GOPer is not DOA.

SOME of them will escape their predicted execution.

That is all enough to make me happy.  Plus seeing the NYT pay for some of these resurrections adds to the joy.

[Arkansas Yankee]

OK, I'm not going to look at that page ever again. I already have enough stupid, pointless things to stress about in relation to the election as it is. I'll look at these polls' results only when 538 adds them to their model (and only to the extent that they actually affect Dem's odds).

I feel your angst.   These polls help me shift some of my angst to some of you.  And to think you cannot even face these polls makes it even more enjoyable.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The 40-point gender gap in WV-03 is completely nuts.  How do people in West Virginia stay married??  I can't imagine living with a Trump supporter.

You know what I am going to say!

I CANNOT IMAGINE LIVING WITH A HILLARY SUPPORTER!!!

[henster]

VA-07, TX-23, & TX-SEN are probably going to be shifted to Likely R soon. This also bodes poorly for AZ-SEN there seems to be a real weakness for Dems in the sunbelt I would probably say Sinema is an underdog at this point.

[Zaybay]

VA-07, TX-23, & TX-SEN are probably going to be shifted to Likely R soon. This also bodes poorly for AZ-SEN there seems to be a real weakness for Dems in the sunbelt I would probably say Sinema is an underdog at this point.

realllllly hope your being sarcastic.

[wbrocks67]

It's still very early in TX-23 and VA-07 but there's no way they both end up like that. Hurd is nowhere near +9 in a district that Clinton won by 3 and he only won by 1. Also, no way Trump is at +3 approval in a suburban dsitrict (VA-07) that he only won by 7.

There's also barely any 18-29 year olds in either, which is a huge problem for all of these tbh.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

What the hell are they doing to get such a ridiculous number(also it implies democrats are doing much better somewhere outside of suburbs if this is at all accurate).

[Lachi]

The sample sizes are beyond awful here...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hurd could still possibly win, but I doubt he wins by 9.

[wbrocks67]

Just look at VA-07 right now.

I mean wut.


Brat is winning 18-29 year olds by +73 and 30-44 year olds by +19.

Abigail is winning 45-64 year olds by 5 and 65+ by 2.

Obviously the sample sizes here are skewing this to hell, but the fact that 27% of the sample is <44 and 73% of the sample is 45+ shows this poll right now is nowhere near representative.

If anything, it's encouraging for Abigail that the sample size is way bigger for 45+ and she's winning it, and she's more than likely to gain in the <45 sample as it gets bigger, since it's definitely more Democratic.