NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[henster]

I don't know why people didn't see Bredesen as another Bob Kerrey/Evan Bayh right at the start. It was so obvious that it was always going to end up this way. It seems like every year we get the storied pol come out of the woodworks to be the great hope for the Dems in deep red states and they end up losing badly in the end. Next year it will be Mark Beebe.

[IceSpear]

I don't know why people didn't see Bredesen as another Bob Kerrey/Evan Bayh right at the start. It was so obvious that it was always going to end up this way. It seems like every year we get the storied pol come out of the woodworks to be the great hope for the Dems in deep red states and they end up losing badly in the end. Next year it will be Mark Beebe.

How dare you spell Sen-elect Mike Beebe's name wrong!

Anyway, some of us did see it...

Sorry to interrupt the party (not really ), but this will be Linda Lingle 2.0.

[Tender Branson]

Don't know what Siena is polling, but it's not the TN Senate race ...

The real results will be much closer.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Those Senate numbers are not good for the Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

The NYT/Siena results right now are a mess. The Trump approvals can show you that they are too GOP-leaning. If anything, TX looked pretty normal when it was like Cruz +5.

Nevada is not out of the question but Trump's approval is only -2, which was his vote margin, so that's... unrealistic.

TX has Trump +6, which is also unrealistic. As is Beto being underwater and Ted being +10. As is Beto only winning 18-29 year olds by 7%.

And Tennessee, let's be real, Blackburn does not have a +15 approval where Bredesen is underwater.

The samples are just horrific again.

[Politician]

The NYT/Siena results right now are a mess. The Trump approvals can show you that they are too GOP-leaning. If anything, TX looked pretty normal when it was like Cruz +5.

Nevada is not out of the question but Trump's approval is only -2, which was his vote margin, so that's... unrealistic.

TX has Trump +6, which is also unrealistic. As is Beto being underwater and Ted being +10.

And Tennessee, let's be real, Blackburn does not have a +15 approval where Bredesen is underwater.

The samples are just horrific again.

Completely. Of course, IceSpear and blue avatars need to take ridiculous R-friendly samples to "reassure" them of a red wave.

[BudgieForce]

The idea of hiring multiple call centers around the country to conduct 100+ polls sound good on paper, but clearly something is getting lost in translation.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, not surprising that the VERY DISHONEST New York Times would lend to credence to such blatant Republican fake polls.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah, not surprising that the VERY DISHONEST New York Times would lend to credence to such blatant Republican fake polls.

This forum has far too much sarcasm.

I know I'm a hack, you could just say that.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Guys, these polls aren't inaccurate just because they don't align with your Blue Wave fantasies. If anything, that CNN D+13 poll that had things extremely polarized at 63D-33R, 50R-45D, and Democrats winning the 65+ demographic at 59D-37R was what you should have been calling out.

It's perfectly reasonable for Trump's approval in Texas to be around 50%.

[MT Treasurer]

This forum has far too much sarcasm.

I know I'm a hack, you could just say that.

My point is that people shouldn’t dismiss these polls just because they don’t like the results, just treat them as data points and move on. It’s true that a few of them are a little hard to believe, but overall they really don’t strike me as particularly unreliable, and certainly not more so than any other polls we’re likely to get.

[BudgieForce]

This forum has far too much sarcasm.

I know I'm a hack, you could just say that.

My point is that people shouldn’t dismiss these polls just because they don’t like the results, just treat them as data points and move on. It’s true that a few of them are a little hard to believe, but overall they really don’t strike me as particularly unreliable, and certainly not more so than any other polls we’re likely to get.

my gut > facts and reasoning

/s

[Politician]

Guys, these polls aren't inaccurate just because they don't align with your Blue Wave fantasies. If anything, that CNN D+13 poll that had things extremely polarized at 63D-33R, 50R-45D, and Democrats winning the 65+ demographic at 59D-37R was what you should have been calling out.

It's perfectly reasonable for Trump's approval in Texas to be around 50%.

Whistling past the graveyard, I see? Good, good...

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Guys, these polls aren't inaccurate just because they don't align with your Blue Wave fantasies. If anything, that CNN D+13 poll that had things extremely polarized at 63D-33R, 50R-45D, and Democrats winning the 65+ demographic at 59D-37R was what you should have been calling out.

It's perfectly reasonable for Trump's approval in Texas to be around 50%.

Whistling past the graveyard, I see? Good, good...

I think that's what you might be doing lol

[Xing]

I think the TX numbers are the most believable, actually. I don't think Trump being slightly above water in TX is hard to believe. I do think Bredesen has sunk to the point where he doesn't have a chance of winning, but I doubt he's going to lose by 18. NV... well, those of you who want to believe that an unpopular incumbent can win a light blue state in a great year for Democrats are free to do so, but I'll be ready to say I told you so when Senator-elect Rosen is projected the winner.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Guys, these polls aren't inaccurate just because they don't align with your Blue Wave fantasies. If anything, that CNN D+13 poll that had things extremely polarized at 63D-33R, 50R-45D, and Democrats winning the 65+ demographic at 59D-37R was what you should have been calling out.

It's perfectly reasonable for Trump's approval in Texas to be around 50%.

Nevada has been very close to the national average over the past few election cycles, if anything slightly D leaning. 

So how does it make sense for Trump to be -2 in approval and the GCB to be D+1 in Nevada, when Trump approval is -10 and the GCB D+8 nationwide?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

@NickG: Simple, those national approval ratings and GCB numbers are flawed..

[Zaybay]

@NickG: Simple, those national approval ratings and GCB numbers are flawed..

Thats....unrealistic. That would suggest that literally every other poll, national, statewide, and all, have been wrong, while one poll is correct. There are trends, narratives, and such, but that suggests just outright failure on multimillion $ companies and groups.

[Xing]

PA-01 will be next. I'll guess Fitzpatrick +6.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

@NickG: Simple, those national approval ratings and GCB numbers are flawed..

Thats....unrealistic. That would suggest that literally every other poll, national, statewide, and all, have been wrong, while one poll is correct. There are trends, narratives, and such, but that suggests just outright failure on multimillion $ companies and groups.

Well for my sake I hope they are unrealistic.

[Zaybay]

PA-01 will be next. I'll guess Fitzpatrick +6.

Watch NYT get Wallace +10 or something. My prediction is Fitz near double digits, not because I think he will win, but because Ive learned the patterns of NYT, and this race will either be complete double digit landslide, or will have Wallace ahead by a bit. I dont trust NYT to get the latter.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Watch NYT get Wallace +10 or something.

That doesn't sound entirely crazy or implausible, TBH. Remember, NJ-03 is literally right next door. Whatever trends are happening in the NJ suburbs, similar trends will be going on in the PA suburbs.

Even Andy Kim's TV ads - insofar as they are anti-Republican in general, will be hurting Fitzpatrick in PA-01 as well, since voters are seeing them across the Philadelphia media market. Every time voters in PA-01 see a Kim ad about MacArthur repealing Obamacare, that is a reminder about how Republicans tried to repeal Obamacare, and that reminder hurts Fitzpatrick as well. So to some extent anyway, he will have interstate coattails. Probably not a huge effect, but media markets tend to swing together for this reason.

[Continential]

Blackburn isn't winning by 18 points

[Florida Man for Crime]

Blackburn isn't winning by 18 points

Leaving aside Bayh 2016...

Atlas this time in 2010 on CA-SEN: ~ "Boxer isn't winning by 10 points."

Atlas this time in 2004 on OK-SEN: ~ "Coburn isn't winning by 11 points."

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approval is not +7 in Texas and it's not +30 in Tennessee. That's where these NYT/Siena polls are flawed right now.