TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2
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  TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2
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Author Topic: TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2  (Read 9532 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #50 on: September 07, 2018, 12:07:32 AM »


sup

Bredesen's downward trajectory has been much more gradual than I thought it would be so far, but there's plenty of time left to go.

And if he's really only up 2 points with a +39 favorable rating...it's probably lights out once Blackburn's attack ads start to bring that number back down to earth.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #51 on: September 07, 2018, 12:16:18 AM »


sup

Bredesen's downward trajectory has been much more gradual than I thought it would be so far, but there's plenty of time left to go.

And if he's really only up 2 points with a +39 favorable rating...it's probably lights out once Blackburn's attack ads start to bring that number back down to earth.

You’re utterly delusional. All she’s been doing is attacking Phil the entire campaign and it hasn’t worked, mainly because Bredesen keeps an optimistic message of bipartisanship.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #52 on: September 07, 2018, 12:21:04 AM »


sup

Bredesen's downward trajectory has been much more gradual than I thought it would be so far, but there's plenty of time left to go.

And if he's really only up 2 points with a +39 favorable rating...it's probably lights out once Blackburn's attack ads start to bring that number back down to earth.

You’re utterly delusional. All she’s been doing is attacking Phil the entire campaign and it hasn’t worked, mainly because Bredesen keeps an optimistic message of bipartisanship.

"You're utterly delusional"
"Tennessee voters want an optimistic message of bipartisanship"

LMAO. You should probably ask yourself why a popular moderate former governor with a +39 favorable rating is in a statistical tie with a wingnut if Tennessee really wants "an optimistic message of bipartisanship."
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #53 on: September 07, 2018, 12:46:33 AM »


sup

Bredesen's downward trajectory has been much more gradual than I thought it would be so far, but there's plenty of time left to go.

And if he's really only up 2 points with a +39 favorable rating...it's probably lights out once Blackburn's attack ads start to bring that number back down to earth.

You’re utterly delusional. All she’s been doing is attacking Phil the entire campaign and it hasn’t worked, mainly because Bredesen keeps an optimistic message of bipartisanship.

"You're utterly delusional"
"Tennessee voters want an optimistic message of bipartisanship"

LMAO. You should probably ask yourself why a popular moderate former governor with a +39 favorable rating is in a statistical tie with a wingnut if Tennessee really wants "an optimistic message of bipartisanship."

Yeah, IceSpear has a point.
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #54 on: September 07, 2018, 01:29:45 AM »

Fantastic news. A high quality poll and Bredesen near 50%. Pure toss-up.
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Pericles
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« Reply #55 on: September 07, 2018, 01:49:18 AM »

Bredesen's message clearly has some appeal since he's doing much, much better than a Generic D would be doing.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #56 on: September 07, 2018, 02:27:17 AM »

Bredesen's message clearly has some appeal since he's doing much, much better than a Generic D would be doing.

But is that because he's running on bipartisanship, or is it because he's Phil Bredesen running in a good year for Democrats against a mediocre opponent?

Did Charlie Brown or Gordon Ball run on an optimistic message of bipartisanship in 2014? Probably nobody knows/cares, but I doubt it would make a difference what their message was or wasn't. They were always going to get completely demolished no matter what.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #57 on: September 07, 2018, 06:02:27 AM »


sup

Bredesen's downward trajectory has been much more gradual than I thought it would be so far, but there's plenty of time left to go.

And if he's really only up 2 points with a +39 favorable rating...it's probably lights out once Blackburn's attack ads start to bring that number back down to earth.

You’re utterly delusional. All she’s been doing is attacking Phil the entire campaign and it hasn’t worked, mainly because Bredesen keeps an optimistic message of bipartisanship.

"You're utterly delusional"
"Tennessee voters want an optimistic message of bipartisanship"

LMAO. You should probably ask yourself why a popular moderate former governor with a +39 favorable rating is in a statistical tie with a wingnut if Tennessee really wants "an optimistic message of bipartisanship."

Because Tennessee is a red state. That's the answer. Look at the GOV race. The R is ahead by 13%. Bredesen could be behind by 13% right now, but he's not, thanks his +39 rating.

Blackburn is a nut but that rarely matters these days. She has an R behind her name and that will get her tons of votes. The fact that this state voted for Trump by 25%+ and has a D in the lead right now for Senate is pretty damn impressive.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #58 on: September 07, 2018, 06:03:05 AM »


sup

Bredesen's downward trajectory has been much more gradual than I thought it would be so far, but there's plenty of time left to go.

And if he's really only up 2 points with a +39 favorable rating...it's probably lights out once Blackburn's attack ads start to bring that number back down to earth.

Also, as I stated with *facts* in my post on the last page, there has been no downward trajectory if you look at the actual polling #s.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #59 on: September 07, 2018, 11:28:10 AM »


sup

Bredesen's downward trajectory has been much more gradual than I thought it would be so far, but there's plenty of time left to go.

And if he's really only up 2 points with a +39 favorable rating...it's probably lights out once Blackburn's attack ads start to bring that number back down to earth.

You’re utterly delusional. All she’s been doing is attacking Phil the entire campaign and it hasn’t worked, mainly because Bredesen keeps an optimistic message of bipartisanship.

"You're utterly delusional"
"Tennessee voters want an optimistic message of bipartisanship"

LMAO. You should probably ask yourself why a popular moderate former governor with a +39 favorable rating is in a statistical tie with a wingnut if Tennessee really wants "an optimistic message of bipartisanship."

Because Tennessee is a red state. That's the answer. Look at the GOV race. The R is ahead by 13%. Bredesen could be behind by 13% right now, but he's not, thanks his +39 rating.

Blackburn is a nut but that rarely matters these days. She has an R behind her name and that will get her tons of votes. The fact that this state voted for Trump by 25%+ and has a D in the lead right now for Senate is pretty damn impressive.

Right, exactly. It's not like anyone has ever denied that Bredesen is going to do far better than generic D in Tennessee. But it's hardly SO crazy to think Tennessee's partisanship is going to win out in the end just because Bredesen has a statistically insignificant lead in August. The partisanship is already exerting extreme gravity on this race. In any swing state the Republican would be getting BTFO with those respective favorability numbers.

Speaking of the governor's race, even Karl Dean is doing far better than Dems normally do in TN. So that seems to suggest a large part of the reason Dems are doing so much better here is due to the national environment. The rest can be explained by Bredesen's high popularity and Blackburn's mediocre popularity (relative to most Republicans in Tennessee.) I doubt it has much to do with Bredesen's "message" or whatever.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #60 on: September 07, 2018, 11:32:29 AM »

A Marist poll showing Dems leading other than in WI is good news. Due to the fact they showed DeWine winning in OH. Bredesen is likely to beat Blackburn
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #61 on: September 07, 2018, 05:18:36 PM »

B..b..but Bredesen is just a summer fling. Once Labor day is over people will start paying attention and TN will be #SafeR
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #62 on: September 07, 2018, 07:54:11 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.
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« Reply #63 on: September 07, 2018, 07:56:34 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.

You realize Pennsylvania is a red state, right?
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« Reply #64 on: September 07, 2018, 07:57:34 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.

You realize Pennsylvania is a red state, right?

Um, no it isn't? Do you even understand the concept of red and blue states?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #65 on: September 07, 2018, 08:05:59 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.

You realize Pennsylvania is a red state, right?

Um, no it isn't? Do you even understand the concept of red and blue states?

You see, one election that a Republican won by 0.72% with a lower share of the vote than George W. Bush in 2004 makes a state blood red. /s
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GM Team Member WB #NoToJo
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« Reply #66 on: September 07, 2018, 08:12:45 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.
It sucks, but we've had quite a few progressives run for congress here in SC (Arik Bjorn, Dmitri Cherny, and now Mary Geren, and probably some others I'm forgetting) even though they haven't had really much of a chance, but at least I know there are several like minded individuals.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #67 on: September 07, 2018, 09:59:16 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.

You realize Pennsylvania is a red state, right?

Um, no it isn't? Do you even understand the concept of red and blue states?

Part of Beet's new persona is to feign he lost all sense of rationality, or maybe it isn't a persona, which makes it doubly sad.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #68 on: September 07, 2018, 10:11:48 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.

You realize Pennsylvania is a red state, right?

Um, no it isn't? Do you even understand the concept of red and blue states?

Part of Beet's new persona is to feign he lost all sense of rationality, or maybe it isn't a persona, which makes it doubly sad.

Didn't he call Obama the N word, wasn't that quoted somewhere?
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Overturn Dobbs
Beet
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« Reply #69 on: September 07, 2018, 10:39:37 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.

You realize Pennsylvania is a red state, right?

Um, no it isn't? Do you even understand the concept of red and blue states?

You see, one election that a Republican won by 0.72% with a lower share of the vote than George W. Bush in 2004 makes a state blood red. /s

Pennsylvania is trending Republican. Trump's steel tariffs help its industries. The rallies he's getting in traditional Democratic strongholds like Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (one of the places mentioned by Mario Cuomo in his "two Cities" speech) is huge. In 2000, Tennessee was only red by "one election" too. Anyways, I just thought Shadow's comment was ironic. Back on topic.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #70 on: September 07, 2018, 10:46:45 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.

You realize Pennsylvania is a red state, right?

Um, no it isn't? Do you even understand the concept of red and blue states?

You see, one election that a Republican won by 0.72% with a lower share of the vote than George W. Bush in 2004 makes a state blood red. /s

Pennsylvania is trending Republican. Trump's steel tariffs help its industries. The rallies he's getting in traditional Democratic strongholds like Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (one of the places mentioned by Mario Cuomo in his "two Cities" speech) is huge. In 2000, Tennessee was only red by "one election" too. Anyways, I just thought Shadow's comment was ironic. Back on topic.

The tariffs didn't even help a Republican win a district 20 points more Republican than the state as a whole, lol.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #71 on: September 07, 2018, 10:56:51 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.

You realize Pennsylvania is a red state, right?

Um, no it isn't? Do you even understand the concept of red and blue states?

You see, one election that a Republican won by 0.72% with a lower share of the vote than George W. Bush in 2004 makes a state blood red. /s

Pennsylvania is trending Republican. Trump's steel tariffs help its industries. The rallies he's getting in traditional Democratic strongholds like Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (one of the places mentioned by Mario Cuomo in his "two Cities" speech) is huge. In 2000, Tennessee was only red by "one election" too. Anyways, I just thought Shadow's comment was ironic. Back on topic.
Tennessee was already established as a red-trending state way before 2000.  The only reason it was a "swing" state was because a Southerner had won the state in the previous two elections.  If someone like Jerry Brown or Mario Cuomo was the nominee in 1992, Tennessee would have stayed in the red column.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #72 on: September 07, 2018, 11:17:35 PM »

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.

You realize Pennsylvania is a red state, right?

Um, no it isn't? Do you even understand the concept of red and blue states?

You see, one election that a Republican won by 0.72% with a lower share of the vote than George W. Bush in 2004 makes a state blood red. /s

Pennsylvania is trending Republican. Trump's steel tariffs help its industries. The rallies he's getting in traditional Democratic strongholds like Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (one of the places mentioned by Mario Cuomo in his "two Cities" speech) is huge. In 2000, Tennessee was only red by "one election" too. Anyways, I just thought Shadow's comment was ironic. Back on topic.

Are you seriously going to compare a Southern state like TN that gave GWB a majority of the vote against one of their own Senators in 2000 to PA giving Trump a narrow plurality victory? It's especially an awful comparison since Bush ended up staying popular in TN and Trump has tanked hard in the state.

Let me put it this way: An extremely well-liked ex-governor is the Democratic nominee in TN, and he's barely ahead despite having a massive net favourability lead.

Meanwhile in PA, both Casey in the Senate and Wolf in the gubernatorial race appear well on their way to annihilating their opponents. We also saw Democrats flip a US House seat that Trump won by 20 points right at the same time those steel tariffs you mentioned got put in.
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Dukakisite1988
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« Reply #73 on: September 08, 2018, 10:20:28 AM »

I cannot help but wonder whether this will be the race that will take days or even weeks to discover the winner.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #74 on: September 08, 2018, 12:50:45 PM »

PA is now a red state? This thread is officially off the rails
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