TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2
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  TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2
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Author Topic: TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2  (Read 13623 times)
reagente
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« on: September 06, 2018, 04:00:43 PM »
« edited: September 06, 2018, 04:05:13 PM by reagente »

Bredesen (D): 48%
Blackburn (R): 46%
Undecided: 5%



http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Tennessee-Tables-of-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_September-2018_1809051213.pdf#page=4
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2018, 04:00:58 PM »

Beat me to it, lol

Tossup
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2018, 04:01:04 PM »

Oh ****.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2018, 04:01:39 PM »

Senate gonna flip y'all
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2018, 04:01:42 PM »

"Likely R"
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hofoid
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2018, 04:01:45 PM »

Tightening even more. Blackburn's got it. Bayh 2.0.
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2018, 04:02:12 PM »

Called it perfectly!

Bredesen near 50% is great news as undecideds usually vote Republican in Tennessee. Also, ignore the post above me.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2018, 04:02:52 PM »

Tightening even more. Blackburn's got it. Bayh 2.0.

Yep, Blackburn by 8 seems right.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2018, 04:03:19 PM »

Tightening even more. Blackburn's got it. Bayh 2.0.

She's clearly gonna win by 10
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2018, 04:03:50 PM »

Kinehora (yiddish version of 'knock on wood')
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2018, 04:04:30 PM »

Tossup/Tilt D.
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2018, 04:06:30 PM »

It is interesting that to note that Bredesen is doing better with RVs (ahead by 4) than with LVs (ahead by 2).

That won't be typical in most states, but that is an indication of the way TN is different from most states with competitive Senate races, and part of why it could end up breaking differently from other races at the end.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #12 on: September 06, 2018, 04:07:18 PM »

Bredesen has a 61-22 favorable rating
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KingSweden
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« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2018, 04:08:42 PM »

Well damn. Thatís much better than I expected...
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2018, 04:09:20 PM »


Fav/unfav for Bredesen: 61%-22% (+39) Fav/unfav for Blackburn: 46%-36% (+10)

Trump's job rating in TN (likely voters): Approve: 47% Disapprove: 43%

Congressional preference (likely voters) GOP control: 50% Dem control: 38%
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2018, 04:10:10 PM »


That is definitely possible (and more likely than Bredesen by 10, I would say), but definitely not clear.
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JG
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« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2018, 04:10:38 PM »

Bredesen is holding his own better than I would have expected.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2018, 04:11:52 PM »


That is definitely possible (and more likely than Bredesen by 10, I would say), but definitely not clear.

I was being sarcastic
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2018, 04:12:47 PM »


I know.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2018, 04:13:58 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2018, 04:19:44 PM by PittsburghSteel »

Generic Ballot for the state was R+30 in 2016, itís R+12 in the poll. Obviously I donít expect any D pickups for the house in the state, but I expect a massive improvement for the party in Tennessee.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2018, 04:14:07 PM »

This poll is great, since he is nearly at 50%, but the trend line for Bredesen is really bad, as it seems hes losing support as time goes on. I worry what will happen to this race by election day.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #21 on: September 06, 2018, 04:16:33 PM »

This poll is great, since he is nearly at 50%, but the trend line for Bredesen is really bad, as it seems hes losing support as time goes on. I worry what will happen to this race by election day.

To state the obvious, Blackburn will probably win.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #22 on: September 06, 2018, 04:17:45 PM »


Fav/unfav for Bredesen: 61%-22% (+39) Fav/unfav for Blackburn: 46%-36% (+10)

Trump's job rating in TN (likely voters): Approve: 47% Disapprove: 43%

Congressional preference (likely voters) GOP control: 50% Dem control: 38%

I would've liked to see Trump's approval a touch higher, as I'd be surprised if he was only +4 in TN, but this is poll is still very pleasant news.  Bredesen is holding up into September, which is what I wanted to see before viewing this race as a tossup as opposed to Lean R.
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Pollster
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« Reply #23 on: September 06, 2018, 04:17:51 PM »

This poll is nothing but a testament to the strength of Bredesen as a candidate.

Blackburn likely making a huge mistake trying to drag down his favorability instead of trying to boost hers. The GOP easily wins this race if the Dem and Rep are equally well-liked.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #24 on: September 06, 2018, 04:20:17 PM »

This poll is great, since he is nearly at 50%, but the trend line for Bredesen is really bad, as it seems hes losing support as time goes on. I worry what will happen to this race by election day.

You just said two contradicting things in your statement.
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