...wow. If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad. Like...really bad.
If you compare those numbers to 2016...
Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.
Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.
Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.
Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.
Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics. Anything can happen. However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!
If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.
A place like Hamilton County may be in the single digits for Braun.
Yeah, I think there is a decent chance that Braun in the suburbs turns out to be what we thought vs what happened for Gillespie in NOVA in 2017, myself included as well.
Maybe Pence could help out though, I guess we will see.
Pence could've lost Hamilton County if he ran for Governor in 2016. He wasn't going to win the state at all. This myth that Pence was a popular figure in Indiana who can save the INGOP needs to go away, especially in the suburbs, where he was most unpopular in comparison to a generic Indiana Republican (ala Eric Holcomb or Mitch Daniels)
Yep. I was a poll worker in Hamilton County for the 2016 primaries —there were a record number of blank votes in the Republican gubernatorial race then, when Pence was running unopposed; it was fairly obvious his interest in the vice presidency was motivated by the knowledge that he was not getting a second term as governor. I think the predictions that Donnelly will carry Hamilton County are overly optimistic at this stage, but if these numbers hold, he's certain to improve on Clinton's margin and may well carry Democrats to victory in some of the local races (including Senate District 29, where far-right fundamentalist Mike Delph is facing his 2014 opponent, who gave him the closest race of his career against the backdrop of a GOP landslide in the rest of the state).
