Best possible map for Clinton in 1996

[darklordoftech]

I've heard that he could have won the entire south.

[SingingAnalyst]

Clinton/Gore 400
Dole/Kemp 138

Holding CO and GA would have given Clinton an even 400 EVs and much of the South. Racial polarization, as well as lingering doubts about Clinton's character of the kind that affected Southern voters more than others, would have made it very difficult for Clinton to expand his win any more.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Clinton/Gore 400
Dole/Kemp 138

Holding CO and GA would have given Clinton an even 400 EVs and much of the South. Racial polarization, as well as lingering doubts about Clinton's character of the kind that affected Southern voters more than others, would have made it very difficult for Clinton to expand his win any more.

GA and CO are certainly the easiest targets; Clinton lost each by a little over 1%.  I think we can reasonably add VA, which he lost by just under 2%.

The next targets would be MT (2.9%) and SD (3.5%).  Perot got decent percentages in both states.  Let's say that something happens to cause Perot to drop out and endorse Clinton.  There were a couple of other states that were reasonably close Dole wins with large Perot votes: IN (5.6% margin, Perot with 10.5%) and ND (6.8% margin, Perot 12.2%).  It's not too much of a stretch to give these to Clinton.

There were a few other southern states with fairly close margins (NC, SC, MS, TX), but I think your point about Clinton's character makes these a bridge too far.

So if we flip GA, CO, VA, MT, SD, ND, and IN, the map becomes:

Clinton/Gore 434
Dole/Kemp 104

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

What was the best case scenario for Dole? Probably this...

He could've made Ohio, Florida, and Missouri close, but I don't think he could've won them.

[Pericles]

A lot of the South was just out of reach, with Clinton winning all the states he lost by 4% or less in he'd come very close but just fall short in several states.

President Bill Clinton/Al Gore-Democratic: 419 EV 51.23%
Bob Dole/Jack Kemp-Republican: 119 EV 38.72%

Let's stretch it even further with a 5% swing.

President Bill Clinton/Al Gore-Democratic: 465 EV 51.73%
Bob Dole/Jack Kemp-Republican: 73 EV 38.22%

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

1996 was probably the last year candidates assumed raising national numbers would guarantee an electoral victory. Before big data, micro-targeted electoral vote engineering kept both candidates focused on "battlegrounds." If Clinton rose just a few more points, there would be very few states out of reach. The resulting map would look like a bloodbath:

Conversely, there is no way at all Clinton in the 2000s would win LA, GA, KY, or TN. They would be left for dead by his campaign.