Why is Kavanaugh so unpopular?

[J. J.]

It will make a difference on a couple cases though. Arizona State Legislature v. AIRC (which made independent redistricting commissions constitutional) will be guaranteed to be overturned by Kavanaugh, for example, since he was the deciding vote and Roberts dissented.

How much of a practical difference would that make?

The electorate of Arizona can elect legislators that could establish the commission, or that could submit it to the electorate as a constitutional amendment, complying with the dissent.   Either way, they would need a majority of the legislature, but the same people that vote for the legislature would be voting in the referendum.

I agree with Roberts when he wrote:  “Failure of political will does not justify unconstitutional remedies." SCOTUS ruled that the legislature can be circumvented; the Court has tended to say the opposite. 

The dissent is not saying that a commission is unconstitutional.  It is saying that the establishment of one must go through the legislature.

[Beet]

This is a no brainer, and yet many of you seem to fail to see the underlying issue.

There will be a conservative majority on the Court for a long time, perhaps decades.

Kavanaugh himself could be on the Court for as many as 30-40 years.

Shouldn't that be of concern to anyone who doesn't want to see that happen?

This shouldn't be such a personal issue.

Roberts is not all that conservative.  His voting record is very close to Kennedy.

At worst, there will be 4 strong conservatives, 1 in the middle, 2 liberals, and 2 strong liberals.  That assumes that both Gorsuch and Kavanaugh (if confirmed) team up with Thomas and Alito.

I don't think that there is enough information to classify Gorsuch, but so far, he is more liberal than Thomas or Alito.

I'm wondering if we will see more 7 to 2 decisions.  

Roberts and Kennedy ARE/WERE CONSERVATIVES.

They would have been considered Rehnquist's closest ideological allies if they served on the 70's. We've only just been moving the goalposts as to what constitutes a "conservative" justice for 40 years.  

Oh, and saying Gorsuch (maybe, possibly) isn't as conservative as Thomas and Alito is like saying the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean isn't as deep as the Marianas Trench.

One of those "conservatives" voted that Obamacare was constitutional; the other voted that is unconstitutional to prohibit same sex marriage.  It is hard to call those justices "conservatives,"or at least "strong conservatives." 

Shelby County v. Holder, FEC v. Citizens United, Burwell v. Hobby Lobby, and Janus v. AFSCME were absolutely not moderate decisions, and both voted on the hard right side of the court in those decisions.

Indeed, Kennedy made conservative rulings in 71% of 5-4 cases and Roberts has done so 82% of the time in 5-4 decisions. If that's the definition of a "moderate judge," then the term "moderate" has no meaning anymore.

Then you are saying, a conservative won't make a difference.

It will make a difference on a couple cases though. Arizona State Legislature v. AIRC (which made independent redistricting commissions constitutional) will be guaranteed to be overturned by Kavanaugh, for example, since he was the deciding vote and Roberts dissented.

You're a Canadian; why do you care so much about the U.S. Supreme Court?

[Lord Admirale]

Polarization.

[°Leprechaun]

I don't agree with the idea that the SCOTUS is always above politics. Kennedy's decision to retire before a new Senate is sworn in was political. Bush v Gore was also political.

It is true that Justices are not always partisan, but sometimes they are.

[J. J.]

Polarization.

I would not call it polarization.  I think it is a misunderstanding of the dissent.  For Roberts, this was a process question.

Is there a big practical difference between the majority and Roberts decisions?  One is saying that a commission is valid if the mechanism creating it is adopted by the legislature.   The other says that the legislature need not be involved.  That is it.

Here is Roberts' ruling.  https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/13-1314#writing-13-1314_DISSENT_4

It deals with what constitutes a "legislature."  It doesn't say that the legislature cannot create a commission.  It doesn't say that a referendum can't be used; there was case law permitting a referendum to be part of the process.  It doesn't even say that the legislature has to be involved in the drawing of the lines of the districts or approving of those drawn lines.

It does say that, when this process is set up, it has to go through the legislature.  That is it. This is the big ideological difference were are talking about.

[SCNCmod]

The question asked is why is he so unpopular (According to polling he is the most unpopular nominee in a long time... I think even below Bjork).

For someone to fall this far in polling- I think it has to do with more than just the politics of it (b/c probably 10% of those polled are either completely in the middle politically or don't following the process in depth are not very knowledgeable regarding specifics of Supreme Court ).  These people most likely have a favorable or unfavorable opinion based on snap gut reaction opinion they have formed seeing him briefly in news, clips, etc. 

And in this snap reaction... IMO He lacks charm & doesn't have an especially compelling bio, childhood, etc.  I imagine if Kavanaugh had been appoint to Scalia's seat & the current nominee was Gorsuch or Hardiman ... both would poll higher regarding popularity (even with the balance of the court at play) simply because they come across as more charming or more likeable in general.

[KingSweden]

The question asked is why is he so unpopular (According to polling he is the most unpopular nominee in a long time... I think even below Bjork).

For someone to fall this far in polling- I think it has to do with more than just the politics of it (b/c probably 10% of those polled are either completely in the middle politically or don't following the process in depth are not very knowledgeable regarding specifics of Supreme Court ).  These people most likely have a favorable or unfavorable opinion based on snap gut reaction opinion they have formed seeing him briefly in news, clips, etc. 

And in this snap reaction... IMO He lacks charm & doesn't have an especially compelling bio, childhood, etc.  I imagine if Kavanaugh had been appoint to Scalia's seat & the current nominee was Gorsuch or Hardiman ... both would poll higher regarding popularity (even with the balance of the court at play) simply because they come across as more charming or more likeable in general.

I’m still convinced Hardiman would have drawn 4-5 Dems

[Calthrina950]

The question asked is why is he so unpopular (According to polling he is the most unpopular nominee in a long time... I think even below Bjork).

For someone to fall this far in polling- I think it has to do with more than just the politics of it (b/c probably 10% of those polled are either completely in the middle politically or don't following the process in depth are not very knowledgeable regarding specifics of Supreme Court ).  These people most likely have a favorable or unfavorable opinion based on snap gut reaction opinion they have formed seeing him briefly in news, clips, etc. 

And in this snap reaction... IMO He lacks charm & doesn't have an especially compelling bio, childhood, etc.  I imagine if Kavanaugh had been appoint to Scalia's seat & the current nominee was Gorsuch or Hardiman ... both would poll higher regarding popularity (even with the balance of the court at play) simply because they come across as more charming or more likeable in general.

I’m still convinced Hardiman would have drawn 4-5 Dems

How many do you think Kavanaugh will get? 4-5 is still a low number.

[KingSweden]

The question asked is why is he so unpopular (According to polling he is the most unpopular nominee in a long time... I think even below Bjork).

For someone to fall this far in polling- I think it has to do with more than just the politics of it (b/c probably 10% of those polled are either completely in the middle politically or don't following the process in depth are not very knowledgeable regarding specifics of Supreme Court ).  These people most likely have a favorable or unfavorable opinion based on snap gut reaction opinion they have formed seeing him briefly in news, clips, etc. 

And in this snap reaction... IMO He lacks charm & doesn't have an especially compelling bio, childhood, etc.  I imagine if Kavanaugh had been appoint to Scalia's seat & the current nominee was Gorsuch or Hardiman ... both would poll higher regarding popularity (even with the balance of the court at play) simply because they come across as more charming or more likeable in general.

I’m still convinced Hardiman would have drawn 4-5 Dems

How many do you think Kavanaugh will get? 4-5 is still a low number.

One or two at most

[Calthrina950]

The question asked is why is he so unpopular (According to polling he is the most unpopular nominee in a long time... I think even below Bjork).

For someone to fall this far in polling- I think it has to do with more than just the politics of it (b/c probably 10% of those polled are either completely in the middle politically or don't following the process in depth are not very knowledgeable regarding specifics of Supreme Court ).  These people most likely have a favorable or unfavorable opinion based on snap gut reaction opinion they have formed seeing him briefly in news, clips, etc. 

And in this snap reaction... IMO He lacks charm & doesn't have an especially compelling bio, childhood, etc.  I imagine if Kavanaugh had been appoint to Scalia's seat & the current nominee was Gorsuch or Hardiman ... both would poll higher regarding popularity (even with the balance of the court at play) simply because they come across as more charming or more likeable in general.

I’m still convinced Hardiman would have drawn 4-5 Dems

How many do you think Kavanaugh will get? 4-5 is still a low number.

One or two at most

It will probably be Heitkamp and one of Manchin or Donnelly, perhaps both.