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November 24, 2020, 10:15:58 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO-Marist: McCaskill +4 with third parties, tied head-to-head
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Author Topic: MO-Marist: McCaskill +4 with third parties, tied head-to-head  (Read 1462 times)
ON Progressive
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« on: September 04, 2018, 05:58:02 AM »

McCaskill 44
Hawley 40
Campbell (L) 5
Crain (G) 3

Head-to-head:
McCaskill 47
Hawley 47

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/03/claire-mccaskill-tied-with-josh-hawley-nbc-marist-poll.html
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jimmie
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2018, 06:06:22 AM »

toss up tilt R.

lmao a year ago I was ridiculed for stating this race was a toss up when everyone had Claire doa.

Now I am in a minority in believing Hawley probably wins.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=statepred&fips=29&class=1

lmao
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2018, 06:07:57 AM »
« Edited: September 04, 2018, 06:47:47 AM by Zaybay »

The third parties will likely not have as large of a percentage, but they still will take some votes, and that should hurt Hawley here. It does look like McCaskill is favoured here. Tilt D.
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President Biden
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2018, 06:47:14 AM »

Pretty much a tossup, but gun to my head, McCaskill wins.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2018, 06:52:40 AM »

So toss up with a slight tilt to McCaskill
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2018, 07:01:31 AM »

Tossup/Tilt D
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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2018, 08:00:50 AM »

The disparity is a bit strange. Oh well.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2018, 09:18:19 AM »

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2018, 09:20:56 AM »

Come on Claire!!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2018, 09:36:42 AM »

This forum is going to be an absolute mess when this race is called, lol. Anyway, some other numbers:

Trump approval: 44/46 (-2)
McCaskill favorability: 41/49 (-8)
Hawley favorability: 36/36
House vote? 43R, 42D
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jimmie
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« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2018, 10:00:11 AM »

This forum is going to be an absolute mess when this race is called, lol. Anyway, some other numbers:

Trump approval: 44/46 (-2)
McCaskill favorability: 41/49 (-8)
Hawley favorability: 36/36
House vote? 43R, 42D

See mo02 will be competitive!
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jimmie
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« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2018, 10:12:58 AM »

Wish there were Auditor numbers, though that race hasnít really gotten underway. Iím sure not many people know yet that McDowell is a fraud

Galloway should win by 5 to 7.. but if environment improves for GOP significantly it is feasible that Hawley could win large enough and the Senate race dominate the air waves enough to pull that creepy witch across the finish line.

Jesus.. McDowell even looks creepy

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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2018, 10:19:37 AM »

Queen Claire is in a dangerous spot, but in the end she can't lose (hopefully...)

I am a bit nervous about this one though. Also, imagine the blanching if it were a Hillary midterm and if the Reps had a better candidate like Wagner!
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JG
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« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2018, 10:33:41 AM »

Queen Claire is in a dangerous spot, but in the end she can't lose (hopefully...)

I am a bit nervous about this one though. Also, imagine the blanching if it were a Hillary midterm and if the Reps had a better candidate like Wagner!

I think Claire would probably have retired.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2018, 11:40:54 AM »

The crosstabs show Hawley winning 18-29 year olds by 30 in a head-to head. Any explanation for that?
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2018, 12:07:18 PM »

The crosstabs show Hawley winning 18-29 year olds by 30 in a head-to head. Any explanation for that?


It is normal for crosstabs to be wrong/have high margin of error, especially for groups that are hard to get a sample for such as young voters.
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Mondale
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« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2018, 12:10:03 PM »

Hawley will not win
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2018, 01:55:25 PM »

Toss-Up, as it always has been. Imagine telling this forum a year ago that both Nelson and McCaskill would be dead even with their opponents in the polls, lol.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2018, 02:20:03 PM »

Beautiful poll! I am confident that on November 6th the women of Missouri will see McCaskill through to victory.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2018, 05:33:39 PM »

Here's How Claire McCaskill Is Still DOA:
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2018, 05:48:35 PM »

There were more than 300k more votes in the Democratic primary this year than in the 2010 and 2012. There were even more votes than in 2006 when the Dem primary vote narrowly surpassed the GOP one. That shows a good bit of Democratic energy. Plus, McCaskill is a great campaigner in rural areas and will undoubtedly pick up some buyer's remorse Trump voters.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2018, 08:06:26 PM »

Tossup remains tossup.
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Badger
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« Reply #22 on: September 05, 2018, 12:20:15 AM »

Pretty much a tossup, but gun to my head, McCaskill wins.
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