Which state result would you want to see if you're trying to predict 2020?

[Barack Oganja]

You're trying to predict which party wins the Electoral College in 2020. You're allowed to see the result of one state. Which do you choose?

[White Trash]

Florida. If Trump doesn't win it he loses the entire election.

[pbrower2a]

Indiana. No Republican nominee for President has won the Presidency since 1908 without winning Indiana by at least 10%. (Taft barely won the state in 1908 and won the election).

Indiana, unless rally close, will be one of the first states to be called  in the 2020 election. If Trump wins it by 7% or so, then he is going to lose Ohio.

[IceSpear]

Wisconsin. If the Dem is winning that, they're probably winning at minimum the Hillary states and MI/PA as well, and that's the ballgame.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

PA or WI.

[MT Treasurer]

I actually think FL is basically a must-win for both sides in 2020, so FL. I could see WI voting to the right of FL and PA to the left of it.

[TDAS04]

Pennsylvania or Wisconsin is the likely tipping point state.  Democrats probably need both, while Republicans probably need Florida.

[Nyssus]

Most likely Michigan or Wisconsin. However, I would also like to see Arizona, North Carolina, or Iowa.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida. If Trump doesn't win it he loses the entire election.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I would pretty surprised if PA doesn't go for the winning candidate in 2020.

[McGarnagle]

Florida, with Pennsylvania as a close second choice.

If the Democrat won Florida, it almost certainly means they won the election.

If the Republican won Florida, it means there's about a 75% chance they won the election. The last time they won Florida but lost the election was 1992. Since 1996, the winner of the election has been whoever won Florida. For the last two decades it has proven the most reliable bellwether.

If the Democrat won Pennsylvania, it doesn't necessarily mean they won the election, 2000 and 2004 being prime examples.

If the Republican won Pennsylvania, they have almost certainly won the election. The last time a Republican won Pennsylvania and lost the election was 1948.

[Peanut]

PA
FL
WI
AZ

In that order

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Provided I am allowed to see the Township/County Map, Illinois.

There are areas in the state that would be useful to look at when it comes to estimating what that means for almost all the competitive states.

[SN2903]

Michigan and PA.

I would look at Macomb County and also look at the rural counties in PA.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Are we allowed to look at county/precinct data? If we are, then Pennsylvania will tell us everything we need to know.

[😥]

1.PA
2.FL
3.OH
4.WI
5.IA

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida, with Pennsylvania as a close second choice.

If the Democrat won Florida, it almost certainly means they won the election.

If the Republican won Florida, it means there's about a 75% chance they won the election. The last time they won Florida but lost the election was 1992. Since 1996, the winner of the election has been whoever won Florida. For the last two decades it has proven the most reliable bellwether.

If the Democrat won Pennsylvania, it doesn't necessarily mean they won the election, 2000 and 2004 being prime examples.

If the Republican won Pennsylvania, they have almost certainly won the election. The last time a Republican won Pennsylvania and lost the election was 1948.

That's a pretty comprehensive and accurate take.

[Grassroots]

IL, I just want to examine that county map and it might give an accurate picture of the election.

[pops]

Wisconsin. If the Dem is winning that, they're probably winning at minimum the Hillary states and MI/PA as well, and that's the ballgame.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Wisconsin. If the Dem is winning that, they're probably winning at minimum the Hillary states and MI/PA as well, and that's the ballgame.

If a Democrat is winning Wisconsin narrowly but Trump is cleaning up in the WOW counties, that might mean he's made up ground in places like Virginia and Colorado.  If Trump is losing WI while doing just as badly in WOW as he did in 2016, then it's lights out.