Many City Precicts Have Stein Above Trump

[Continential]

Tell Me about them

[NOVA Green]

As I posted on another thread awhile back, here are ones from Oregon that include several in the Cities of Portland and Eugene, as well as several from rural Southern Oregon, not to mention a decent chunk of close 3rd place finishes:

Generally most Oregon Precincts tend to have relatively high voting population, since precincts were consolidated with Vote-by-Mail, so generally one is less likely to see 3rd Parties popping into 2nd Place that often anymore.

If we exclude Write-In votes (Many of which were likely for Bernie in heavily Democratic Precincts), we see: the following precincts where Stein came in 2nd behind Clinton, and ahead of Trump and Johnson...

Multnomah County:

Precinct 4203: 8219 Total Votes (85.8% Clinton- 5.2% Stein, 4.2% Trump, 3.0% Write-In, 1.9% Johnson).

It basically includes most of the Buckman and Kerns neighborhoods (Inner SE Portland), which are traditional Progressive Democrat and Alternative strongholds...

Precinct 4207: 4862 Total Votes (88.2% Clinton-- 4.2% Stein, 3.8% Trump, 2.3% Write-In, 1.5% Johnson)

It includes most of your classic Sunnyside neighborhood, including the iconic Belmont and Hawthorne districts, heavily settled by New Left and Counter-Culture types in the 1970s, that despite the past few decades of neighborhood gentrification, still retains many of the original residents now "empty nesters" Baby Boomer types.

Honorary mention goes to the following precincts where Stein places with 2% points of Trump:

Precincts 4209 (6674 Total Votes), 4204 (7897 Total Votes), 4208 (2777 Total Votes), 4301 (8552 Total Votes), 4205 (3941 Total Votes), 4302 (9059 Total Votes), 4304 (7006 Total Votes), 4310 (7493 Total Votes.

These are all precincts in traditionally inner-Northeast and Southeast working-class Portland.

It is actually remarkable that 20% of the voters of Portland were in precincts where Trump lost or only narrowly beat Stein for 2nd place, and telling about the complete collapse of the Republican brand in much of the city.

Stein came in 3rd in most of the rest of Portland, as well as Multnomah County.

Lane County:

Precinct 1123: (1834 Total Votes)--- (75.8% Clinton, 9.3% Stein, 7.8% Trump, 4.5% Write-Ins, 2.8% Johnson).

Again, this is a precinct where a lot of New Left and Counterculture types established strong roots in the '70s and early '80s, in inner West Eugene, that consists of predominately modest single-family older homes in a relatively blue-collar part of Eugene. Again, similarities with some of the Stein 2nd place neighborhoods in Portland, empty nester baby-boomer types are a significant chunk of the electorate.

Honorary mention:

Precincts 1783 (2440 Total Votes)---  (71.8% Clinton, 10.2% Trump, 9.3% Stein, 5.4% Write-In, 3.2% Johnson)

It basically consists of the heavily alternative Whittaker neighborhood plus "downtown" proper, including a fairly large senior retirement high-rise, which anyone who has ever been to Eugene will recognize as the backdrop photo shoot as you look towards the Butte to the North... There have also disturbingly been some way overpriced local condos popping up in the precinct, that is basically gentrification spill-over from the University of Oregon moving into parts of Downtown Eugene.

Precinct 1125: (3667 Total Votes)--- (74.7% Clinton, 9.5% Trump, 8.1% Stein, 4.6% Write-In, 3.1% Johnson).

This precinct has an interesting mix since it basically stretches East to West from the edge of the University District, with a significant concentration of apartments and older homes divided into studios in the type of "Empty Nester" and alternative Baby Boomer types areas in the central and Western Part of the precinct.

Just as with Multnomah county, if I were to go through every precinct where Stein placed third, I would be here all night long.

Jackson County: (Southern Oregon):

Nowhere that Stein placed 2nd in, or fell within a 2% margin of Trump, but there are several precincts that stand out....

Precinct # 7 (Ashland)--- (2931 Total Votes)--- (77.6% Clinton, 10.7% Trump, 6.1% Stein, 3.2% Write-In, 2.4% Johnson)

Basically a precinct that surrounds Southern Oregon State University, but is not the "University Precinct" proper, although with some college student population in the area, shares some of the same "empty nester" and baby boomer demographics, and an historically large counter-cultural population.

Precinct #21 (Rural- "Pinehurst")---- (195 Total Votes).

(54.9% Clinton, 30.3% Trump, 8.2% Stein, 4.1% Libertarian, 2.6% Write-Ins)

Stein's best precinct in the county.... Not totally sure what's going on there, but it does have the highest percentage of "other" for Census self-identification, which usually has a high correlation with Native-American voters. This is on the edge of Klamath Native land, so it is entirely possible that there is a connection here.

Josephine County:

If we roll over one county to the West, which is a much more Republican County overall, we see a similar phenomenon regarding Stein performance in rural areas....

There are many parts of rural Josephine county that tend to be much more Democratic than the cities and towns, again historically populated with alternative types during the Vietnam era from Vets to hippies (And frequently a bit of both combined)...

Precinct # 34: (286 Total Votes)--- Far SW Josephine West and SW of Cave Junction---

(53.8% Trump, 29.7% Clinton, 9.4% Stein, 5.2% Write-Ins, 1.7% Libertarian)

Precinct # 40 (759 Total Votes)----  "Williams area"

(44.9% Trump, 41.6% Clinton, 7.8% Stein, 4.0% Write-Ins, 1.7% Libertarian)

Precinct # 31 (2474 Total Votes)--- SE rural Josephine County

(48.0% Trump, 38.6% Clinton, 6.3% Stein, 3.6% Write-Ins, 3.5% Libertarian)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261951.msg5610672#msg5610672

DJT also placed 3rd behind Jill Stein in campus precincts around Stanford and UC-Berkeley, and quite possibly in a precinct or two in off-campus areas around the University of Washington (Seattle).

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5925172#msg5925172[/b]

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They aren't just student areas.

[NOVA Green]

They aren't just student areas.

Who said they were??

You didn't quote and bold the relevant section, but I'm assuming you are talking out the metaphorical shots out to Berkeley and Palo Alto

The reason I didn't go into a heavy in-depth analysis of the Stein Vote by precincts, is that without really spending tons of time on that project, I can only call out the individual precincts that I have actually looked at as part of other research projects....

That's why I brought up data from Oregon and a few PAC-12 College precincts, since those are the only ones that I have spent time looking at.   

Tell us about the high performing Stein precincts in California, from the North Coast, to the East Bay, LA and the LBC, back up to San Jose and "The City" in Norcal and back down to West LA....

I'm interested in Ishan (the OPs) original question: "Many City Precincts have Stein above Trump: Tell me about them?"

I can only speak about the one's I've looked at, so *tag* you're it....

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They aren't just student areas.

Who said they were??

You didn't quote and bold the relevant section, but I'm assuming you are talking out the metaphorical shots out to Berkeley and Palo Alto

The reason I didn't go into a heavy in-depth analysis of the Stein Vote by precincts, is that without really spending tons of time on that project, I can only call out the individual precincts that I have actually looked at as part of other research projects....

That's why I brought up data from Oregon and a few PAC-12 College precincts, since those are the only ones that I have spent time looking at.   

Tell us about the high performing Stein precincts in California, from the North Coast, to the East Bay, LA and the LBC, back up to San Jose and "The City" in Norcal and back down to West LA....

I'm interested in Ishan (the OPs) original question: "Many City Precincts have Stein above Trump: Tell me about them?"

I can only speak about the one's I've looked at, so *tag* you're it....

In Berkeley and Oakland, the Stein precincts tended to be poorer flats areas rather than hill areas, and the strongest ones I found weren't the areas with the most students. I think she did well in a lot of Hispanic areas, and some areas that had a fair amount of blacks, as well as some areas that are more white. Maybe she didn't do so well with Asians, which might have hurt her near UC Berkeley.