This isn't a very popular answer, but I tend to think that Al Gore would have tried for a rematch and maybe even won the election if there was neither a 9/11 nor an Iraq and the desire for a "war president" that came with those. If Iraq still happens, Kerry runs and wins the nomination, but his primary rivals do somewhat better.
The peacetime election would concern the deteriorating economy and the gay marriage debate, for which Gore might pick populist primary rival John Edwards as his running mate. He would already be looking for more Southern appeal based on 2000 and the past success of Bill Clinton.
I think you might actually be right. A lot of people thought Bush was doomed to be a one-termer before 9/11. Questions about his legitimacy and what went down in the 2000 election would have remained potent issues longer, for one thing. Al Gore could easily campaign as the guy who should be president anyway, and blast Bush for a middling economy compared to Clinton’s and unpopular domestic policies like Social Security privatization. Bush would have to answer for that instead of making the whole thing about how true patriots vote for the president in wartime. This is one rematch I could see being pulled off. I’m not sure Gore goes with Edwards but it’s possible and could work for him.
