New Jersey U.S. House of Representatives Megathread

[😥]

I decided to create this topic because I believe that there are many competitive races in New Jersey. You can discuss this, rate the every race and discuss the opinion polls.

[😥]

My rating (all districts):
1th district: Safe D
2th district: Likely D (flip)
3th district: Tossup
4th district: Safe R
5th district: Lean D
6th district: Safe D
7th district: Tossup/Tilt D (flip)
8th district: Safe D
9th district: Safe D
10th district: Safe D
11th district: Lean D (flip)
12th district: Safe D
So, before elections: 7D, 5R
      after elections: 10D, 1R, 1 Tossup

[Thank you for being a friend...]

What's funny is that in 2006 and 2008, two blue wave years, there was only one Democratic pickup (and that was lost in 2010).  Now there's 4 possible pickups (Sherrill, Malinowski, Van Drew, Kim).  Meanwhile, in neighboring New York, the Democrats had their worst recruiting of any state in the country and only 2 are competitive.  In 2006 and 2008, Democrats picked up a total of 6 seats.  (Of course they lost those 6 seats in 2010).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

1th district: Safe D
2th district: Likely D (flip)
3th district: Tilt R
4th district: Safe R
5th district: Lean D
6th district: Safe D
7th district: Tilt D (flip)
8th district: Safe D
9th district: Safe D
10th district: Safe D
11th district: Lean D (flip)
12th district: Safe D

[wesmoorenerd]

What's funny is that in 2006 and 2008, two blue wave years, there was only one Democratic pickup (and that was lost in 2010).  Now there's 4 possible pickups (Sherrill, Malinowski, Van Drew, Kim).  Meanwhile, in neighboring New York, the Democrats had their worst recruiting of any state in the country and only 2 are competitive.  In 2006 and 2008, Democrats picked up a total of 6 seats.  (Of course they lost those 6 seats in 2010).

About New York: I agree that recruiting was awful, but I noticed you said that only two races were competitive. I've said it for a while now, but I think people are really underestimating Max Rose in NY-11. He's not a favorite but he has a clear opening.

Anyway, my ratings:
NJ-01 - Safe D
NJ-02 - Likely D
NJ-03 - Tilt D
NJ-04 - Safe R
NJ-05 - Likely D
NJ-06 - Safe D
NJ-07 - Tilt D
NJ-08 - Safe D
NJ-09 - Safe D
NJ-10 - Safe D
NJ-11 - Lean D
NJ-12 - Safe D

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Here are mine:

NJ-01 - Safe D
NJ-02 - Likely D
NJ-03 - Tilt R
NJ-04 - Safe R
NJ-05 - Likely D
NJ-06 - Safe D
NJ-07 - Lean R
NJ-08 - Safe D
NJ-09 - Safe D
NJ-10 - Safe D
NJ-11 - Lean D
NJ-12 - Safe D

[RRusso1982]

People keep saying the 11th is Lean D. Call me skeptical, but I just don't see Morris County electing a Democrat to Congress.

[Progressive Pessimist]

People keep saying the 11th is Lean D. Call me skeptical, but I just don't see Morris County electing a Democrat to Congress.

It's not just Morris County though, which swung pretty hard for Clinton by the way, the district includes parts of Essex and Passaic County which could offset some of the Morris and Sussex County parts of the districts. If there was any time for this district to flip, it's this year.

Anyway, my ratings:

NJ-1: Safe D
NJ-2: Likely D
NJ-3: Tossup
NJ-4: Safe R
NJ-5: Lean D
NJ-6: Safe D
NJ-7: Tossup
NJ-8: Safe D
NJ-9: Safe D
NJ-10: Safe D
NJ-11: Tossup
NJ-12: Safe D

[jman123]

NJ 11 is centered over Morris County, a gop bastion. How can people say that Sherrill has a shot at flipping this seat?

[IceSpear]

A GOP bastion doesn't vote Republican by 4 points.

[wesmoorenerd]

A GOP bastion doesn't vote Republican by 4 points.

This. It's like an R+3 open seat with an extremely strong challenger in Sherrill that raised seven figures last quarter. Claiming it doesn't stand a chance of flipping because "MUH AFFLUENT NORTHEASTERN GOP STRONGHOLDS" is missing the forest for the trees.

[Gass3268]

The main thing for Democrats is to dominate the portion of Essex County that's in this district, if they do that they should be able to offset a narrow loss in the Morris County portion.

[😥]

Sherrill will win

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I would say lean D for NJ-11 if we could Place Menendez with another Democrat. I fear he will drag her down, As well as Malinowski and Kim.

[darklordoftech]

I keep seeing ads on Youtube accusing Jay Webber of supporting the Ryan tax code. Could these ads make a difference? Could they backfire by giving Webber name recognition or by annoying people to the point that they vote for Webber just to give the middle finger to the House Majority PAC?

[Virginiá]

It would be preferable for numerous reasons to replace Menendez, but I don't think he'll drag downballot Democrats down too much, if at all. Straight ticket voting based on the top of the ballot is more of a presidential election thing.

[Pollster]

Sherrill scared the chairman of one of, if not THE, most powerful House committees into retirement. Clearly she has a shot to win.

Murphy carried NJ11 in 2017 by 2 points while losing Morris by 8.

[Pollster]

I keep seeing ads on Youtube accusing Jay Webber of supporting the Ryan tax code. Could these ads make a difference? Could they backfire by giving Webber name recognition or by annoying people to the point that they vote for Webber just to give the middle finger to the House Majority PAC?

Anybody who votes to give the middle finger to the House Majority PAC was likely never a gettable voter for Sherrill to begin with.

[Chief Justice Keef]

NJ-01 - Safe D
NJ-02 - Likely D
NJ-03 - Tossup
NJ-04 - Safe R
NJ-05 - Likely D
NJ-06 - Safe D
NJ-07 - Tilt D
NJ-08 - Safe D
NJ-09 - Safe D
NJ-10 - Safe D
NJ-11 - Lean D
NJ-12 - Safe D

[Devils30]

3 is a tossup right now...Kim was up in Monmouth poll and isn't even well known yet.

[LabourJersey]

NJ-02 is Likely Dem.

NJ-11 is Lean Dem

NJ-07 is barely Lean Dem (the grassroots in the district is pretty strong against Lance, and towns in the district have elected Democratic mayors/councilmen for the first time ever)

NJ-03 is a Tossup.

Everyone else is safe.

[darklordoftech]

NJ-1, -6, -8, -9, -10, -12: Safe D
NJ-2, -5: Likely D
NJ-11: Lean D
NJ-7: Tossup
NJ-3: Lean R
NJ-4: Safe R

NJ-11 is the race to watch. Both candidates are exceptional. I expect a re-match in 2020 regardless of the winner, and I expect both to go on to big things in NJ politics. (Webber arguably already has, but I digress.)

What's exceptional about them?

[Senator Incitatus]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzSv9bwgZF4

The District 11 debate is live right now, for those interested. These are two quality candidates.

[Senator Incitatus]

Thoughts so far:

Sherrill has moved so far to the center-right on economic issues that it will be difficult for Webber to win, given his conservative stances on social issues. She either says she will not support economically progressive proposals or says she needs to continue to consider them. "I will have to look at that" is becoming a mantra of hers.

For example, she lodges a strong attack on Webber on conversion therapy – he voted against a bill that outlawed it in New Jersey. Webber responds by posing it as an issue of government interference and doctor-patient confidentiality. He cites the Newark Star-Ledger ("no conservative rag") as sharing his position. He does not say whether he "supports conversion therapy."

Sherrill evasively said she'll vote for Menendez and called him a "fighter for New Jersey." Probably a bad look in this district. Decent chance this makes it into an attack ad and seems like an unforced error; I can't imagine Menendez is currently cracking 45% in this district. (He got 47% here in 2012.)

Webber certainly demonstrates the stronger grasp of the issues. I might prefer Sherrill as my next door neighbor. I would prefer Webber as my representative.

[Senator Incitatus]

NJ-11 Debate (cont.)

Foreign Policy:

When Sherrill is pressed on which country is the greatest threat to the United States, she "can't pick one" but names a few including Russia and China. Webber picks China, noting Chinese military expansion in the SCS and economic expansion (i.e. Belt and Road). He gives NK a footnote as an unpredictable threat.

Social Policy:

On policing and race, Webber is "no sociologist" when it comes to explaining systemic racism. He encourages treating all equally, race-blind opportunity, and quotes Reagan: "The best social program is a job." Sherrill says society does not value women equally and cites Webber's vote against requiring equal pay. Not really an answer to the question, but a good attack. She pivots back to supporting "comprehensible" criminal justice reform – says she will "look at" a lot of types of reform, but doesn't propose or endorse any.

Webber fires back that as an attorney, he has represented women in pay discrimination cases. He says that the law he voted against was redundant and opposed by the NJ Law Journal and that he shares the position of Barack Obama. Sherrill responds that Webber "does not support women" because he does not support Planned Parenthood. Webber calls this offensive and says Sherrill does not represent all women in the district, citing his own wife.

Side note: Michael Aron, whom I am not usually a fan of, is doing a good job of moderating this debate. It helps that the candidates are respectful of him and each other.