KS-PPP: Kobach +1
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Author Topic: KS-PPP: Kobach +1  (Read 3031 times)
Jeppe
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« on: August 30, 2018, 04:34:53 PM »
Kobach - 39%
Kelly - 38%
Orman - 9%
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2018, 04:35:32 PM »
Doesn't surprise me, this race is a tossup.
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Buchanan 96
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2018, 04:38:20 PM »
KS is a supply side economics wasteland. They need to get it together.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2018, 04:38:24 PM »
I have no idea how this race can go, PPP is good, but the undecided vote is rather large.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2018, 04:41:23 PM »
Quote from: Zaybay on August 30, 2018, 04:38:24 PM
I have no idea how this race can go, PPP is good, but the undecided vote is rather large.

I mean 14% Undecided isn't that weird, especially since there are probably Colyer voters now floating in the air in addition to the base undecideds.
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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2018, 04:45:59 PM »
Is this a PPP conducted internal?

Anyway, it'd be nice to know how many voters Orman's pulling from which side. On one hand, being a moderate earns him support among Republican leaning voters that are turned off by Kobach. On the other, Orman was effectively the de-facto D candidate when he ran in 2014, so maybe that isn't doing Kelly too many favors.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2018, 04:48:11 PM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on August 30, 2018, 04:45:59 PM
Is this a PPP conducted internal?

Anyway, it'd be nice to know how many voters Orman's pulling from which side. On one hand, being a moderate earns him support among Republican leaning voters that are turned off by Kobach. On the other, Orman was effectively the de-facto D candidate when he ran in 2014, so maybe that isn't doing Kelly too many favors.
Not sure, unlike the Gillum poll, Kelly is the one who revealed it. Not sure, but that could greatly impact the quality of this poll.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2018, 04:58:42 PM »
Quote from: Zaybay on August 30, 2018, 04:48:11 PM
Quote from: yeah_93 on August 30, 2018, 04:45:59 PM
Is this a PPP conducted internal?

Anyway, it'd be nice to know how many voters Orman's pulling from which side. On one hand, being a moderate earns him support among Republican leaning voters that are turned off by Kobach. On the other, Orman was effectively the de-facto D candidate when he ran in 2014, so maybe that isn't doing Kelly too many favors.
Not sure, unlike the Gillum poll, Kelly is the one who revealed it. Not sure, but that could greatly impact the quality of this poll.

I can't find any other information about this poll, so I suspect that it is indeed an internal.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2018, 05:10:19 PM »
Man, I'd love to see some Kobach-Kelly head to head numbers. Really interesting to see what Orman's effect on the race really is.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2018, 05:11:17 PM »
Hopefully Orman supporters defect to Kelly to stop Kobach.
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morgieb
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« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2018, 06:19:54 PM »
ing Orman.

Oh well, at least he's third and getting little of the vote so hopefully we'll see some defections to Kelly to stop Kobach.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2018, 06:21:19 PM »
If Orman starts from so low then he might become a non-factor by election day.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2018, 06:26:53 PM »
New Poll: Kansas Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2018-08-26

Summary: D: 38%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Orman ran a lot of ads in the weeks leading up to the primary and went down 3% from the Remington poll last month. Not great.
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Politician
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« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2018, 06:34:48 PM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on August 30, 2018, 06:26:53 PM
New Poll: Kansas Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2018-08-26

Summary: D: 38%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Orman ran a lot of ads in the weeks leading up to the primary and went down 3% from the Remington poll last month. Not great.

Good riddance to Goofy Greg.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2018, 06:37:58 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2018, 06:44:54 PM by Delegate The Saint »
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1035306096062332930

Kelly and Orman both rise by 1% after those polled heard one of the statements above.

EDIT: This poll was reportedly commissioned by a PAC that supports Kelly.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2018, 06:39:37 PM »
Yeah, this race is a Toss-Up. I'm honestly not sure whether Orman losing support would help Kelly or Kobach.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2018, 07:08:46 PM »
Kobach leading by even 0.1% is too much.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2018, 07:35:56 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 30, 2018, 06:39:37 PM
Yeah, this race is a Toss-Up. I'm honestly not sure whether Orman losing support would help Kelly or Kobach.
I honestly can't see anyone who currently supports Orman saying, "You know what, I think I'm going to support Kobach instead." As for those undecided who are considering Orman, though, I'm not sure who will benefit the most from Orman's possible collapse.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2018, 08:50:23 PM »
We need women's advocacy groups to swarm into Kansas like bees. We need that seat!
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2018, 09:36:17 AM »
Toss-up/tilt R. It's Dem pollster and Orman is a factor whose impact isn't fully known yet. I hope we see home head-to-head polls soon. My by bet now is that Kobach pulls this out by a five point win. Might chance as the campaign progresses.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2018, 11:44:42 AM »
If the race is a tie at this point you'd have to bet on Kobach, especially with Goofy Greg in the race. More partisans are going to come home over the next 2 months.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2018, 11:51:03 AM »
I really wish we could get a poll for Kelly vs Kobach to see who Orman is harming more.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: August 31, 2018, 05:56:24 PM »
Kelly will win
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Badger
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« Reply #23 on: August 31, 2018, 11:14:41 PM »
Third-party candidates support always deflates as election day approaches, particularly on Election Day itself. If Ormond is only at 9% now, he's going to be near a non-factor on Election Day. Yes, he still might be enough to swing a close race, damn him, but I think there's a good argument that the voters who abandoned him will go overwhelming against Kobach, and the undecideds mostly will as well. Still wish he would drop out though.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2018, 11:53:24 PM »
Even if you buy this poll, this poll is bad news for GOP, only 1 ahead in a conservative state like KS.
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