WV-Harper (R): Manchin +6
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 26, 2024, 07:06:07 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  WV-Harper (R): Manchin +6		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: WV-Harper (R): Manchin +6  (Read 2891 times)
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,613
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 30, 2018, 01:06:33 PM »
« edited: August 30, 2018, 01:10:01 PM by yeah_93 »
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,300
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2018, 01:08:01 PM »
Harper is a solid R-outfit.

That means Manchin leads by ~ 10 points.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2018, 01:09:16 PM »
YEAH LET'S GO SON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2018, 01:10:59 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 30, 2018, 01:08:01 PM
Harper is a solid R-outfit.

That means Manchin leads by ~ 10 points.

They had Manchin leading Morrisey 57-35 in November 2016.

Anyway, just like MT, this is Lean D, but with a lot of GOP potential.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2018, 01:15:36 PM »
Likely D, and this seems like a GOP recruiting failure.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2018, 01:20:03 PM »
Quote from: Beat on August 30, 2018, 01:15:36 PM
Likely D, and this seems like a GOP recruiting failure.

No way, Chris Cillizza and Charlie Cook told me that Morrisey was a top-tier recruit.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,717
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2018, 01:27:32 PM »
Wow, even Ha(R)per can't show a GOP lead. Sad!
Logged
GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,289
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2018, 01:30:31 PM »
!oof

Likely D
Logged
wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,600
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2018, 01:30:57 PM »
Lean D, since Morrisey has room for growth. That said, it's looking like he's going to squander it.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,717
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2018, 01:33:48 PM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on August 30, 2018, 01:30:57 PM
Lean D, since Morrisey has room for growth. That said, it's looking like he's going to squander it.

The only growth Fat Pat will experience is around his waistline.
Logged
junior_chimp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,520
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2018, 01:35:08 PM »
Manchin was never going to lose under a Trump presidency. Even (Evan) Jenkins would of lost
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2018, 01:37:42 PM »
Quote from: Joshua on August 30, 2018, 01:33:48 PM
Quote from: westroopnerd on August 30, 2018, 01:30:57 PM
Lean D, since Morrisey has room for growth. That said, it's looking like he's going to squander it.

The only growth Fat Pat will experience is around his waistline.

Oof lol!
Logged
Senator & Ambassador Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,203
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2018, 01:39:03 PM »
Yep, as long as Manchin votes for Kavanaugh, he's Safe.
Logged
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,528
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2018, 01:47:25 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 30, 2018, 01:08:01 PM
Harper is a solid R-outfit.

That means Manchin leads by ~ 10 points.
Logged
GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,289
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2018, 01:47:44 PM »
Even if he doesn't I doubt he'll lose over 10% to make this a tossup. Notice this appears to be an R internal and Manchin is winning bigly.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,067
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2018, 01:49:52 PM »
Quote from: Representative weatherboy1102 on August 30, 2018, 01:47:44 PM
Even if he doesn't I doubt he'll lose over 10% to make this a tossup. Notice this appears to be an R internal and Manchin is winning bigly.
Logged
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,059


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2018, 03:29:18 PM »
If the Democrats are able to put this race away earlier than expected (and hopefully, Nelson in FL is now putting some effort to save his seat), resources can then be directed to the tougher states of ND and MO.

It's still a longshot, but if the Dems hold the above and can pick up 2 out of the 3 potentials in AZ, NV, and TN, it's the majority.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2018, 04:26:55 PM »
Yeah the only reason I could see for them making this poll friendlier to Manchin than it should be would be to provide him a false sense of complacency. But that narrative substantially weakens after seeing this poll is not an outlier at all.
Logged
Senator & Ambassador Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,203
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2018, 05:12:47 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 30, 2018, 04:26:55 PM
Yeah the only reason I could see for them making this poll friendlier to Manchin than it should be would be to provide him a false sense of complacency. But that narrative substantially weakens after seeing this poll is not an outlier at all.

As far as republican pollsters go, Harper is actually pretty good.
Logged
Chief Justice Keef
etr906
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2018, 05:33:16 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 30, 2018, 01:09:16 PM
YEAH LET'S GO SON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[IMG ]http://i65.tinypic.com/20qg76o.jpg[/img]

This might be the most embarrassing thing ever.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2018, 06:23:35 PM »
Quote from: Beat on August 30, 2018, 01:15:36 PM
Likely D, and this seems like a GOP recruiting failure.
TBF it's not so much a GOP recruiting failure (Jenkins was as good of a candidate as possible) as a GOP primary voting failure.

This is still a winnable race if the climate improves for Republicans, but given that the best a Republican firm (admittedly more like PPP than an actual internal, but from memory most of Harper's polling errors are to the right?) can do is Manchin up mid-single digits, it's at least Lean D at this point.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,034
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2018, 07:15:27 PM »
Quote from: Stirring Wolf🥣🐺 on August 30, 2018, 01:13:19 PM
Manchin might not be as safe as some of the slight-Trump state Democrats (Casey Jr., Stabenow, Baldwin); but he's the safest of the heavily-Trump state Democrats.

That's a good way to look at it.
Logged
wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,600
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2018, 07:54:24 PM »
Quote from: Chief Justice Keef on August 30, 2018, 05:33:16 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 30, 2018, 01:09:16 PM
YEAH LET'S GO SON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[IMG ]http://i65.tinypic.com/20qg76o.jpg[/img]

This might be the most embarrassing dank thing ever.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,492
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2018, 10:58:57 PM »
Manchin's definitely the least vulnerable of the Romney state Democrats. He's not safe yet, but I could see him surviving even if Democrats underperform expectations.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,450
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2018, 11:00:55 PM »
Likely D, whether Manchin votes to confirm Kav or not. Fool's gold for GOP.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 12 queries.