WV-Harper (R): Manchin +6
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  WV-Harper (R): Manchin +6
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Author Topic: WV-Harper (R): Manchin +6  (Read 2793 times)
Skye
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« on: August 30, 2018, 01:06:33 PM »
« edited: August 30, 2018, 01:10:01 PM by yeah_93 »

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2018, 01:08:01 PM »

Harper is a solid R-outfit.

That means Manchin leads by ~ 10 points.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2018, 01:09:16 PM »

YEAH LET'S GO SON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2018, 01:10:59 PM »

Harper is a solid R-outfit.

That means Manchin leads by ~ 10 points.

They had Manchin leading Morrisey 57-35 in November 2016.

Anyway, just like MT, this is Lean D, but with a lot of GOP potential.
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Politician
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2018, 01:15:36 PM »

Likely D, and this seems like a GOP recruiting failure.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2018, 01:20:03 PM »

Likely D, and this seems like a GOP recruiting failure.

No way, Chris Cillizza and Charlie Cook told me that Morrisey was a top-tier recruit.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2018, 01:27:32 PM »

Wow, even Ha(R)per can't show a GOP lead. Sad!
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GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2018, 01:30:31 PM »

!oof

Likely D
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2018, 01:30:57 PM »

Lean D, since Morrisey has room for growth. That said, it's looking like he's going to squander it.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2018, 01:33:48 PM »

Lean D, since Morrisey has room for growth. That said, it's looking like he's going to squander it.

The only growth Fat Pat will experience is around his waistline.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2018, 01:35:08 PM »

Manchin was never going to lose under a Trump presidency. Even (Evan) Jenkins would of lost
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2018, 01:37:42 PM »

Lean D, since Morrisey has room for growth. That said, it's looking like he's going to squander it.

The only growth Fat Pat will experience is around his waistline.

Oof lol!
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2018, 01:39:03 PM »

Yep, as long as Manchin votes for Kavanaugh, he's Safe.
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« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2018, 01:47:25 PM »

Harper is a solid R-outfit.

That means Manchin leads by ~ 10 points.
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GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
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« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2018, 01:47:44 PM »

Even if he doesn't I doubt he'll lose over 10% to make this a tossup. Notice this appears to be an R internal and Manchin is winning bigly.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2018, 01:49:52 PM »

Even if he doesn't I doubt he'll lose over 10% to make this a tossup. Notice this appears to be an R internal and Manchin is winning bigly.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2018, 03:29:18 PM »

If the Democrats are able to put this race away earlier than expected (and hopefully, Nelson in FL is now putting some effort to save his seat), resources can then be directed to the tougher states of ND and MO.

It's still a longshot, but if the Dems hold the above and can pick up 2 out of the 3 potentials in AZ, NV, and TN, it's the majority.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2018, 04:26:55 PM »

Yeah the only reason I could see for them making this poll friendlier to Manchin than it should be would be to provide him a false sense of complacency. But that narrative substantially weakens after seeing this poll is not an outlier at all.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2018, 05:12:47 PM »

Yeah the only reason I could see for them making this poll friendlier to Manchin than it should be would be to provide him a false sense of complacency. But that narrative substantially weakens after seeing this poll is not an outlier at all.

As far as republican pollsters go, Harper is actually pretty good.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2018, 05:33:16 PM »

YEAH LET'S GO SON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[IMG ]http://i65.tinypic.com/20qg76o.jpg[/img]

This might be the most embarrassing thing ever.
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morgieb
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« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2018, 06:23:35 PM »

Likely D, and this seems like a GOP recruiting failure.
TBF it's not so much a GOP recruiting failure (Jenkins was as good of a candidate as possible) as a GOP primary voting failure.

This is still a winnable race if the climate improves for Republicans, but given that the best a Republican firm (admittedly more like PPP than an actual internal, but from memory most of Harper's polling errors are to the right?) can do is Manchin up mid-single digits, it's at least Lean D at this point.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2018, 07:15:27 PM »

Manchin might not be as safe as some of the slight-Trump state Democrats (Casey Jr., Stabenow, Baldwin); but he's the safest of the heavily-Trump state Democrats.

That's a good way to look at it.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2018, 07:54:24 PM »

YEAH LET'S GO SON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN MANCHIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[IMG ]http://i65.tinypic.com/20qg76o.jpg[/img]

This might be the most embarrassing dank thing ever.

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Xing
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« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2018, 10:58:57 PM »

Manchin's definitely the least vulnerable of the Romney state Democrats. He's not safe yet, but I could see him surviving even if Democrats underperform expectations.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2018, 11:00:55 PM »

Likely D, whether Manchin votes to confirm Kav or not. Fool's gold for GOP.
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