FL-PPP (D): Nelson +1

[Zaybay]

A pure tossup with Scott spending his entire fortune and Nelson barely spending a dime. This race is gonna go D.

[Zaybay]

I believe that Scott now leads 5-6%, in November he will win + 2%. And the results of this poll is due to the fact that PPP always prefers Dems

Thats not true. PPP has a bias of 0.6 on average.....for the Republican. They are an independent pollster, they arent owned by the D party. And even if they were, why would they release bias and false results that show such a close race?

[Zaybay]

Yawn...another WI 2016 type race. Spaceman will win in the end

In the end this is going to Nelson, IF he actually starts campaigning soon. Scott having already spent tons of his money and still trailing in some polls (and leading by pretty narrow margins in others) means that if Nelson gets his sh** together he can win pretty easily.

Money doesn't matter

https://www.twitter.com/SamanthaJoRoth/status/1034615359817560064

Or, more exactly, money after the first couple million really doesn't matter.

Agree with this. Money does matter, but after the first 10$ million, it becomes useless, and in the case of Rick Scott, a negative, due to oversaturation. This race is tilt-Nelson, considering he still hasnt spent any money, and will start after Labour day.

[Zaybay]

I believe that Scott now leads 5-6%, in November he will win + 2%. And the results of this poll is due to the fact that PPP always prefers Dems

Thats not true. PPP has a bias of 0.6 on average.....for the Republican. They are an independent pollster, they arent owned by the D party. And even if they were, why would they release bias and false results that show such a close race?

This poll, like many other PPPs, has been made by ordering Dems and, accordingly, showing their advantage, in my opinion, now Scott leads 5%. Also, the same poll that was held on June 18-19 showed Nelson 48-46

Again, PPP is an independent pollster, they dont take marching orders from the D party. They have, again, had a GOP bias in their polling so far. You cant just add 6%.
Anyway, the change from PPP is -2 for Nelson, and -1 for Scott. Dont know why such a manipulative D pollster would want to publish such a result.

[Zaybay]

Yawn...another WI 2016 type race. Spaceman will win in the end

In the end this is going to Nelson, IF he actually starts campaigning soon. Scott having already spent tons of his money and still trailing in some polls (and leading by pretty narrow margins in others) means that if Nelson gets his sh** together he can win pretty easily.

Money doesn't matter

https://www.twitter.com/SamanthaJoRoth/status/1034615359817560064

You do realize Hillary & her supporting PACs spent over 1/2 billion more than Trump?

Doesn't that prove their point?

[Zaybay]

PPP polls
      April 10-11/18.   Nelson 50.  Scott 44
      June 18-19/18.    Nelson 48 Scott 46
      Aug 29-30/18.     Nelson 46 Scott 45

The debates will be very important. 

Interesting that its the undecided pool thats increasing, and not Scott. I wonder what happens when Nelson starts spending on ads(hes starting today).

[Zaybay]

PPP polls
      April 10-11/18.   Nelson 50.  Scott 44
      June 18-19/18.    Nelson 48 Scott 46
      Aug 29-30/18.     Nelson 46 Scott 45

The debates will be very important. 

Wow- and Scott had the airwaves to himself and dumped $40M on tv ads and still isn't leading after 5 months. Scott might as well light money on fire.

Its in the 50s now.

[Zaybay]

Gillum leads by more than Nelson in the same poll? Bill is in trouble.

Opposite, Gillum is stronger than believed. Nelson is doing the same hes been doing in every other poll. Its just that Gillum is stronger and facing a weaker challenger, where Nelson is not. Anyway, I expect the numbers to rise when Bill starts airing ads, which starts today, and its not good for Scott if hes so far spent 50$ million and, as another poster showed, not gained anything.
PPP polls
      April 10-11/18.   Nelson 50.  Scott 44
      June 18-19/18.    Nelson 48 Scott 46
      Aug 29-30/18.     Nelson 46 Scott 45

[Zaybay]

Gillum leads by more than Nelson in the same poll? Bill is in trouble.

Opposite, Gillum is stronger than believed. Nelson is doing the same hes been doing in every other poll. Its just that Gillum is stronger and facing a weaker challenger, where Nelson is not. Anyway, I expect the numbers to rise when Bill starts airing ads, which starts today, and its not good for Scott if hes so far spent 50$ million and, as another poster showed, not gained anything.
PPP polls
      April 10-11/18.   Nelson 50.  Scott 44
      June 18-19/18.    Nelson 48 Scott 46
      Aug 29-30/18.     Nelson 46 Scott 45

If you’re trusting these numbers, the race went from Nelson +6 in April to Nelson +1 now, so I don’t see how Scott hasn’t gained anything? And it’s not as if PPP is the only polling form polling this race, other polls have shown much better numbers for Scott.

I’m not saying this race isn’t a Tossup, but all three polls you cited were commissioned by Democratic groups, so I think you’re being a little selective here.

He has only actually gained 1 point from the first poll, the others have become undecideds. If Scott were gaining, they should have gone over to Scott, but they are still up for grabs.

And the problem with this race is that, while we are getting polling, most of it is garbage. The Florida Chamber of Commerce and Florida Atlantic University polls arent even considered legitimate by Nate, Cook, Sabato, and even Gonzalez. And good pollsters havent polled this race for a month and a 1/2 now. This is the first good pollster, though it is only a B pollster, coming in, so I take their numbers over the flood of poor polling info that shows Nelson winning whites and Scott winning Hispanics.

[Zaybay]

This and the Gillum poll indicates the serious need for both wings of the Democratic Party to work together.   The situation in Georgia is quite similar--Abrams at the top of the ticket has a reasonable chance to carry some Democrats (LG, SOS--major office in GA) with her.

The two(Nelson and Gillum) do have a great synergy. Gillum turns up turnout, while Nelson convinces the conservative Ds. But its clear that one strategy is working much better than the other.

[Zaybay]

This and the Gillum poll indicates the serious need for both wings of the Democratic Party to work together.   The situation in Georgia is quite similar--Abrams at the top of the ticket has a reasonable chance to carry some Democrats (LG, SOS--major office in GA) with her.

The two(Nelson and Gillum) do have a great synergy. Gillum turns up turnout, while Nelson convinces the conservative Ds. But its clear that one strategy is working much better than the other.

Painfully obvious but yeah. None the less, we gotta work together, we’ll help guard the flanks in WV, Mn 7th, PA 17th, etc, and yall guard the flanks in FL, MT, and Ohio, this has got to be a team effort, it’s our best bet to be united.

Well, actually, we are also guarding the flanks in WV with Ojeda(actually said hes leaning to the CPC )but yeah, it does seem that both sides are really doing well holding down the flanks for the other.

[Zaybay]

This and the Gillum poll indicates the serious need for both wings of the Democratic Party to work together.   The situation in Georgia is quite similar--Abrams at the top of the ticket has a reasonable chance to carry some Democrats (LG, SOS--major office in GA) with her.

The two(Nelson and Gillum) do have a great synergy. Gillum turns up turnout, while Nelson convinces the conservative Ds. But its clear that one strategy is working much better than the other.

Painfully obvious but yeah. None the less, we gotta work together, we’ll help guard the flanks in WV, Mn 7th, PA 17th, etc, and yall guard the flanks in FL, MT, and Ohio, this has got to be a team effort, it’s our best bet to be united.

Well, actually, we are also guarding the flanks in WV with Ojeda(actually said hes leaning to the CPC )but yeah, it does seem that both sides are really doing well holding down the flanks for the other.

Well nah, it’s blue dogs for now in WV. It’s quite obvious that Manchin is holding the flank and giving coattails to Ojeda. If Ojeda wins, he can probably thank Manchin in the same way for Nelson and Gillum. Now 10-20 years in the future, it may very well be Ojeda and the more left wingers holding the flank in WV, but for this cycle, it’s pretty obvious whose holding the flank and giving the coattails.

I dont think Manchin is giving coattails, in fact, I think they will get the same result. Besides, the two hate each other, so I would rather say both are defending two different flanks.

BTW, are you thinking that Gillum will get more of the vote, or Nelson?

[Zaybay]

This and the Gillum poll indicates the serious need for both wings of the Democratic Party to work together.   The situation in Georgia is quite similar--Abrams at the top of the ticket has a reasonable chance to carry some Democrats (LG, SOS--major office in GA) with her.

The two(Nelson and Gillum) do have a great synergy. Gillum turns up turnout, while Nelson convinces the conservative Ds. But its clear that one strategy is working much better than the other.

Painfully obvious but yeah. None the less, we gotta work together, we’ll help guard the flanks in WV, Mn 7th, PA 17th, etc, and yall guard the flanks in FL, MT, and Ohio, this has got to be a team effort, it’s our best bet to be united.

Well, actually, we are also guarding the flanks in WV with Ojeda(actually said hes leaning to the CPC )but yeah, it does seem that both sides are really doing well holding down the flanks for the other.

Well nah, it’s blue dogs for now in WV. It’s quite obvious that Manchin is holding the flank and giving coattails to Ojeda. If Ojeda wins, he can probably thank Manchin in the same way for Nelson and Gillum. Now 10-20 years in the future, it may very well be Ojeda and the more left wingers holding the flank in WV, but for this cycle, it’s pretty obvious whose holding the flank and giving the coattails.

I dont think Manchin is giving coattails, in fact, I think they will get the same result. Besides, the two hate each other, so I would rather say both are defending two different flanks.

BTW, are you thinking that Gillum will get more of the vote, or Nelson?

Ojeda and Manchi, hate each other? Source?

I thought this was widely known, Ojeda hates Manchin for being the embodiment for the Coal Industry heads, and Manchin hates Ojeda for breaking his machine and disrespecting him.
I cant find a specific source, but many of his tweets express the anger. Ask bagel about it.

[Zaybay]

This and the Gillum poll indicates the serious need for both wings of the Democratic Party to work together.   The situation in Georgia is quite similar--Abrams at the top of the ticket has a reasonable chance to carry some Democrats (LG, SOS--major office in GA) with her.

The two(Nelson and Gillum) do have a great synergy. Gillum turns up turnout, while Nelson convinces the conservative Ds. But its clear that one strategy is working much better than the other.

Painfully obvious but yeah. None the less, we gotta work together, we’ll help guard the flanks in WV, Mn 7th, PA 17th, etc, and yall guard the flanks in FL, MT, and Ohio, this has got to be a team effort, it’s our best bet to be united.

Well, actually, we are also guarding the flanks in WV with Ojeda(actually said hes leaning to the CPC )but yeah, it does seem that both sides are really doing well holding down the flanks for the other.

Well nah, it’s blue dogs for now in WV. It’s quite obvious that Manchin is holding the flank and giving coattails to Ojeda. If Ojeda wins, he can probably thank Manchin in the same way for Nelson and Gillum. Now 10-20 years in the future, it may very well be Ojeda and the more left wingers holding the flank in WV, but for this cycle, it’s pretty obvious whose holding the flank and giving the coattails.

I dont think Manchin is giving coattails, in fact, I think they will get the same result. Besides, the two hate each other, so I would rather say both are defending two different flanks.

BTW, are you thinking that Gillum will get more of the vote, or Nelson?

Monmouth polls which has been really just awesome in their WV poll showed Manchin doing substantially better than Ojeda in WV 3rd.

that doesnt indicate coat tails, though. If Ojeda were being pulled across by Manchin, and it was mostly Manchin, then yes, I would agree with you. But Manchin isnt really liked in WV-03, even though they would vote for him. Ojeda, however, is well liked, and doesnt really have any association with Manchin. Anyway, these are just semantics, both are probably going to win come Nov.

[Zaybay]

This and the Gillum poll indicates the serious need for both wings of the Democratic Party to work together.   The situation in Georgia is quite similar--Abrams at the top of the ticket has a reasonable chance to carry some Democrats (LG, SOS--major office in GA) with her.

The two(Nelson and Gillum) do have a great synergy. Gillum turns up turnout, while Nelson convinces the conservative Ds. But its clear that one strategy is working much better than the other.

Painfully obvious but yeah. None the less, we gotta work together, we’ll help guard the flanks in WV, Mn 7th, PA 17th, etc, and yall guard the flanks in FL, MT, and Ohio, this has got to be a team effort, it’s our best bet to be united.

Well, actually, we are also guarding the flanks in WV with Ojeda(actually said hes leaning to the CPC )but yeah, it does seem that both sides are really doing well holding down the flanks for the other.

Well nah, it’s blue dogs for now in WV. It’s quite obvious that Manchin is holding the flank and giving coattails to Ojeda. If Ojeda wins, he can probably thank Manchin in the same way for Nelson and Gillum. Now 10-20 years in the future, it may very well be Ojeda and the more left wingers holding the flank in WV, but for this cycle, it’s pretty obvious whose holding the flank and giving the coattails.

I dont think Manchin is giving coattails, in fact, I think they will get the same result. Besides, the two hate each other, so I would rather say both are defending two different flanks.

BTW, are you thinking that Gillum will get more of the vote, or Nelson?

Monmouth polls which has been really just awesome in their WV poll showed Manchin doing substantially better than Ojeda in WV 3rd.

that doesnt indicate coat tails, though. If Ojeda were being pulled across by Manchin, and it was mostly Manchin, then yes, I would agree with you. But Manchin isnt really liked in WV-03, even though they would vote for him. Ojeda, however, is well liked, and doesnt really have any association with Manchin. Anyway, these are just semantics, both are probably going to win come Nov.

Fair points, I did not think of it that way. So I like Sargent, but I think Scheinberg would have had a better chance, what do you think?

I kinda agree, TBH. Sargent doesnt even really have a good page up. Scheinberg also looks like a sort of Ojeda, using his military experience and whatnot. Anyway, thought this is the most "D friendly district" Im pretty sure none of them would have had a good chance.