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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL-PPP (D): Nelson +1
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Author Topic: FL-PPP (D): Nelson +1  (Read 2721 times)
Beto/Biden/Allred voter 4 Cornyn's NUT maps
IndyRep
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« on: August 30, 2018, 12:29:19 pm »
« edited: August 30, 2018, 02:02:40 pm by MT Treasurer »

46% Bill Nelson (D, inc.)
45% Rick Scott (R)

Trump approval: 46/49 (-3)

http://files.constantcontact.com/a97ff0ce601/d420c047-65fd-49bd-9631-f7d774d9c41d.pdf
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2018, 12:31:49 pm »

I think right now Scott is leading by 1-2 points, but I still think Nelson will win in the end.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2018, 12:35:28 pm »

Tossup. Good to see that at least Scott is not ahead in this.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2018, 12:37:15 pm »

A pure tossup with Scott spending his entire fortune and Nelson barely spending a dime. This race is gonna go D.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2018, 12:38:11 pm »

I believe that Scott now leads 5-6%, in November he will win + 2%. And the results of this poll is due to the fact that PPP always prefers Dems
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Delegate Weatherboy
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2018, 12:39:25 pm »

In the end this is going to Nelson, IF he actually starts campaigning soon. Scott having already spent tons of his money and still trailing in some polls (and leading by pretty narrow margins in others) means that if Nelson gets his sh** together he can win pretty easily.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2018, 12:40:46 pm »

I believe that Scott now leads 5-6%, in November he will win + 2%. And the results of this poll is due to the fact that PPP always prefers Dems
Thats not true. PPP has a bias of 0.6 on average.....for the Republican. They are an independent pollster, they arent owned by the D party. And even if they were, why would they release bias and false results that show such a close race?
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Mondale
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2018, 12:43:07 pm »

Yawn...another WI 2016 type race. Spaceman will win in the end

In the end this is going to Nelson, IF he actually starts campaigning soon. Scott having already spent tons of his money and still trailing in some polls (and leading by pretty narrow margins in others) means that if Nelson gets his sh** together he can win pretty easily.

Money doesn't matter

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new_patomic
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2018, 12:46:59 pm »

Yawn...another WI 2016 type race. Spaceman will win in the end

In the end this is going to Nelson, IF he actually starts campaigning soon. Scott having already spent tons of his money and still trailing in some polls (and leading by pretty narrow margins in others) means that if Nelson gets his sh** together he can win pretty easily.

Money doesn't matter



Or, more exactly, money after the first couple million really doesn't matter.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2018, 12:49:21 pm »

Come on Nelson buddy, let's win this thing, push hard man!!
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Zaybay
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« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2018, 12:49:30 pm »

Yawn...another WI 2016 type race. Spaceman will win in the end

In the end this is going to Nelson, IF he actually starts campaigning soon. Scott having already spent tons of his money and still trailing in some polls (and leading by pretty narrow margins in others) means that if Nelson gets his sh** together he can win pretty easily.

Money doesn't matter



Or, more exactly, money after the first couple million really doesn't matter.
Agree with this. Money does matter, but after the first 10$ million, it becomes useless, and in the case of Rick Scott, a negative, due to oversaturation. This race is tilt-Nelson, considering he still hasnt spent any money, and will start after Labour day.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2018, 12:51:30 pm »

Reminder:

Scott has spent $40MM on TV ads and 75% of that went to negatives ads against Nelson.

Nelson JUST went up on TV yesterday.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2018, 12:52:29 pm »


Or, more exactly, money after the first couple million really doesn't matter's only at an exponentially decreasing rate.
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Strong Candidate
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« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2018, 12:55:00 pm »

I believe that Scott now leads 5-6%, in November he will win + 2%. And the results of this poll is due to the fact that PPP always prefers Dems
Thats not true. PPP has a bias of 0.6 on average.....for the Republican. They are an independent pollster, they arent owned by the D party. And even if they were, why would they release bias and false results that show such a close race?

Their reputation is built on their history of independent polling. This year, for the first time, they only are releasing internal polls for clients, so their polls will likely have a more distinct bias than in years past.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2018, 12:56:17 pm »

It doesn't matter if Scott ends up spending 200 Mio. $ or something ...

If Nelson keeps airing mostly positive ads, he can still pull Scott's teeth in the coming months.

The Gillum surge and enthusiasm will create a favourable environment for Nelson as well, bringing a lot of Blacks to the polls who will also vote for him.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2018, 01:14:42 pm »

Nelson leading Scott 55-30 among Hispanics. Devastating result for the Algae Governor.
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2018, 01:17:13 pm »

Yawn...another WI 2016 type race. Spaceman will win in the end

In the end this is going to Nelson, IF he actually starts campaigning soon. Scott having already spent tons of his money and still trailing in some polls (and leading by pretty narrow margins in others) means that if Nelson gets his sh** together he can win pretty easily.

Money doesn't matter



LMAO holy sh**t! That is a a lot of money for a 4th place finish by Greene
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2018, 01:19:23 pm »

Minority crossover and generalized hatred of Rick Scott may just save Nelson this year
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Blair
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« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2018, 01:19:39 pm »

It's because tons of political consultants advise candidates to spend millions on TV Ads, and direct mail. The companies that produce TV Ads, and direct mail tend to be owned by the same consultants. Rinse and repeat.

 
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Delegate Weatherboy
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« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2018, 01:30:59 pm »

It's because tons of political consultants advise candidates to spend millions on TV Ads, and direct mail. The companies that produce TV Ads, and direct mail tend to be owned by the same consultants. Rinse and repeat.

 


:thinking:
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2018, 01:58:58 pm »

I believe that Scott now leads 5-6%, in November he will win + 2%. And the results of this poll is due to the fact that PPP always prefers Dems
Thats not true. PPP has a bias of 0.6 on average.....for the Republican. They are an independent pollster, they arent owned by the D party. And even if they were, why would they release bias and false results that show such a close race?
This poll, like many other PPPs, has been made by ordering Dems and, accordingly, showing their advantage, in my opinion, now Scott leads 5%. Also, the same poll that was held on June 18-19 showed Nelson 48-46
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2018, 02:02:49 pm »

Yawn...another WI 2016 type race. Spaceman will win in the end

In the end this is going to Nelson, IF he actually starts campaigning soon. Scott having already spent tons of his money and still trailing in some polls (and leading by pretty narrow margins in others) means that if Nelson gets his sh** together he can win pretty easily.

Money doesn't matter



You do realize Hillary & her supporting PACs spent over 1/2 billion more than Trump?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2018, 02:04:36 pm »

I believe that Scott now leads 5-6%, in November he will win + 2%. And the results of this poll is due to the fact that PPP always prefers Dems
Thats not true. PPP has a bias of 0.6 on average.....for the Republican. They are an independent pollster, they arent owned by the D party. And even if they were, why would they release bias and false results that show such a close race?
This poll, like many other PPPs, has been made by ordering Dems and, accordingly, showing their advantage, in my opinion, now Scott leads 5%. Also, the same poll that was held on June 18-19 showed Nelson 48-46
Again, PPP is an independent pollster, they dont take marching orders from the D party. They have, again, had a GOP bias in their polling so far. You cant just add 6%.
Anyway, the change from PPP is -2 for Nelson, and -1 for Scott. Dont know why such a manipulative D pollster would want to publish such a result.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2018, 02:05:37 pm »

Yawn...another WI 2016 type race. Spaceman will win in the end

In the end this is going to Nelson, IF he actually starts campaigning soon. Scott having already spent tons of his money and still trailing in some polls (and leading by pretty narrow margins in others) means that if Nelson gets his sh** together he can win pretty easily.

Money doesn't matter



You do realize Hillary & her supporting PACs spent over 1/2 billion more than Trump?
Doesn't that prove their point?
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Beet
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« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2018, 02:09:38 pm »

Money is important when it comes to getting candidates viable and making people think they can run in the first place. Not a lot of people can raise even $100,000, let alone $6.6 million. But once you are a viable candidate, differences in spending don't make that much difference. That's why it's a much bigger factor in things like state legislative races, or even Congressional races than statewide races.
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