Decision 2008: Crossroads

[KaiserDave]

Will this be 2000 again given how close the Race is?

We shall see

Thoughts on the McCain admin in this TL?

I think McCain himself recovered nicely. Palin of course was useless.

Recovered?

[LoneStarDem]

How will the Governorships be factored in 2012 ?

I'm assuming NC Governor Beverly Perdue (D) still doesn't seek reelection because of corruption scandals ?

What about the United States Senate ?

[KaiserDave]

How will the Governorships be factored in 2012 ?

I'm assuming NC Governor Beverly Perdue (D) still doesn't seek reelection because of corruption scandals ?

What about the United States Senate ?

I will provide details after the election, Dems made major gains in 2010.

Perdue does not run for reelection.

Dems have 60? Maybe 61? Gotta check Senators.

[2016]

Will this be 2000 again given how close the Race is?

We shall see

Thoughts on the McCain admin in this TL?

I think McCain himself recovered nicely. Palin of course was useless.

Recovered?

His Approvals I mean. It's now +3. And that will help Romney.

[KaiserDave]

Will this be 2000 again given how close the Race is?

We shall see

Thoughts on the McCain admin in this TL?

I think McCain himself recovered nicely. Palin of course was useless.

Recovered?

His Approvals I mean. It's now +3. And that will help Romney.

We shall see. But that could be health sympathies. Your thoughts on his policies?

[BigVic]

Tipping a split EC/PV

[KaiserDave]

Decision 2012

Wolf Blitzer: It's 6:30 here in New York, and we have our first poll closings.

We're projecting that the states of Indiana and Kentucky are too early to call. I repeat too early to call, we just don't have enough votes from either states to make much of a conclusion. Especially in Kentucky, where we have but a few votes from the Lexington area. We're also watching contested Governor and Senate races in Indiana. The senate race where Representative Joe Donnelly is favored over Richard Mourdock. And the Governor's race, a razor thin race between Representative Mike Pence and John Gregg.

So far, it's just too early.

Anderson Cooper: While we have these early results coming in, we have reporters at the scene at polling stations across the country, and at the campaign headquarters. We'll be discussing the consequences of tonight's elections, and results across the country.



Wolf: It is 7 on the East Coast. We're making some major projections. Are you ready Anderson?

We're projecting that Senator Clinton, will win the state of Vermont. Which makes her the first female Presidential candidate to win a state. We're saying the presidential election in the states of Florida, Virginia, South Carolina, and Georgia is too early to call. We're also tracking Senate races in Virginia and Florida. We have a projection there too.

Senator Bill Nelson is the projected winner in the Florida senate race, he'll be elected by a strong margin according to the CNN exit poll. Here's where we stand.

Hillary Clinton/Michael Bennet: 3
Mitt Romney/Marco Rubio: 0

We're also going to take a closer look at the Senate race in Indiana, a critical pickup opportunity for Democrats, and the presidential election in Florida. John King is going to take us to the magic wall.

John King:
Here we go Wolf.  First, Indiana's Senate race, and it's a big swing state too. This is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats since Senator Dick Lugar opted not run for reelection. Polls said they could win and win big over Richard Mourdock since his unsavory comments on abortion. Early numbers are very good news for them. Right now the race is about tied with Mourdock ahead by a percentage point. But this is very early results, usually supposed to favor Republicans. If we look at Vermillion county, here in western Indiana, bordering Illinois, on the Presidential level, Secretary Romney leads by 2% with some of the vote counted. Here in the Senate race, Representative Donnelly up by 20 points. That's very, very, very bad news for Mr. Mourdock. And as we see, there we go. It just got closer, we will get more votes from Marion county, Indianapolis, where Donnelly leads by 38, with very few votes in. And from Lake County, Gary, which has no votes in, this could be a pickup already.

Wolf: Was this expected?

John: You could say so. The Republican Senatorial committee stopped airing ads here in the late summer, and it's been all downhill from there.

Wolf: What's going on in the presidential race?

John: It's still close Wolf. Secretary Romney leads by 8 right now, but like I said, a lot of vote to go. Secretary Romney's hoping to run the totals in Western and Central Indiana. Like in Wells county, he's getting 65% of the vote there, that's about where he needs to be. Strong turnout it looks like. But let's look at Vigo county, it's predicted the winner of the Presidential race since the end of 19th century. Early results, early ones. Have Senator Clinton up by 5, let's see how that continues.

Wolf: Can we see Florida?

John: Here in the Sunshine state, we just said Senator Nelson will win reelection. He was expected to win big, he's a southern Democrat, strong family ties to the state. You can see it, Brevard county. This is the space coast, this is a red county. Senator Nelson leads by 8. But at the Presidential level, now this is interesting. Secretary Romney leads Brevard by 14, but lets look at the real bellwethers here. First, Broward county. This is the heart of Miami, where Democrats need to really run the total to win in Florida. Senator Obama as we can see, got 63%, pretty good, not good enough, President McCain took the state. Senator Clinton, so far is at 65%. That's a marginal improvement, is it good enough? We don't know yet.

Wolf: Now this state is critical for the Romney camp.

John: Yes, there is no map to victory for Secretary Romney without Florida. He knows that, he's focused on this since day one, he picked Senator Rubio as his Vice Presidential candidate, Senator Rubio has rallied the Cuban vote, he's spent weeks in the state. Let's see if it's paying off, Seminole county, in suburban Orlando, Romney, so far is at 55%, President McCain got 57% in this county. This county is getting more Republican, but we'll see how this goes. It's super early, we're watching closely.

Anderson: I gotta interrupt, we have a major projection.

We're projecting that the Democrats will hold their majority in the House of Representatives. This isn't surprising, as it would've required a massive effort and some miracles for the Republicans to flip the House, Democrats will retain their majority of 60, 70, many many seats. We'll see if they can expand it, not very surprising. We are also saying that the state of Kentucky will be won by Mitt Romney, not very surprising, even if some Clinton strategists were playing up this state in 2011.

Hillary Clinton/Michael Bennet: 3
Mitt Romney/Marco Rubio: 8

[Grassroots]

bump

[KaiserDave]

bump

I'm here
More updates soon
Thoughts on early numbers?

[Grassroots]

bump

I'm here
More updates soon
Thoughts on early numbers?

I lean the race lean D, and the map so far basically shows this. The Vermont, Kentucky, Indiana calling order usually shows the outcome. If Romney doesn't win Indiana before the next D state is called, he won't win. This is how it has happened IRL, but things could be different this time, who knows?

[KaiserDave]

bump

I'm here
More updates soon
Thoughts on early numbers?

I lean the race lean D, and the map so far basically shows this. The Vermont, Kentucky, Indiana calling order usually shows the outcome. If Romney doesn't win Indiana before the next D state is called, he won't win. This is how it has happened IRL, but things could be different this time, who knows?

If Indiana could be localized

[LoneStarDem]

Go on..... 😁

[JG]

Really hoping Clinton will pull it out.

[2016]

Technically saying or making a Projection Florida being "Too Early To Call" at 7pm ET doesn't make sense. Haven't we learned from 2000? No characterization of a State until all the Polls have closed. Projecting Nelson win at 7pm ET when the Panhandle is still voting is also wrong.

[KaiserDave]

Technically saying or making a Projection Florida being "Too Early To Call" at 7pm ET doesn't make sense. Haven't we learned from 2000? No characterization of a State until all the Polls have closed. Projecting Nelson win at 7pm ET when the Panhandle is still voting is also wrong.

Well, the characterization is that they are waiting for the panhandle, thus too early

Given that Nelson is winning republican strongholds like Brevard easily, then it's safe to assume he's winning.

[LoneStarDem]

Really hoping Clinton will pull it out.

She's going to choke AGAIN.

[Cold War Liberal]

Go on..... 😁

[KaiserDave]

Go on..... 😁

Don't worry, still here.

[Mycool]

Really looking forward to the results. Come on Hillary!

[Cold War Liberal]

Really looking forward to the results. Come on Hillary!

[RedPrometheus]

Really looking forward to the results. Come on Hillary!

[Continential]

Really looking forward to the results. Come on Hillary!

[KaiserDave]

Decision 2012

Wolf Blitzer: It's 7:49 on the east, and the numbers we have are interesting. If we look at Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, very interesting numbers. First in Indiana, Representative Joe Donnelly is inching over State Treasurer Mourdock, it looks like the door is shutting quickly for Republicans in Indiana. We'll have John King look over the Ohio and Virginia and uh Florida results.

John King: Wolf, very interesting results first in Florida. Strong numbers for Secretary Romney and Senator Rubio, although Clinton leads still statewide. Look at Miami Dade, this is a Democratic county, but Little Havana is also here. Senator Clinton is at 58%. Senator Obama won 59% in this county. So...some iffy numbers. And we're still waiting on the conservative panhandle. So some time to go. In Ohio, Ashtabula county. This is strong Democratic turf. Senator Clinton at 56%, that's strong, very strong. And in Hamilton county, this is a McCain county. Cincinnati, usually votes for Republicans, but going to Democrats lately. Senator Clinton is at roughly 50%, also good news. Very strong numbers for Senator Clinton in Ohio. Um...Wolf I believe we have a projection.

Wolf: Yes we do, here we go.

Joe Donnelly, Representative from Indiana, has defeated State Treasurer Mourdock in the Indiana Senate race, Major pickup for the Democrats, and good news for Democrats nationwide. And we now have 8 o'clock poll closings. Here we go....

Hillary Clinton/Michael Bennet: 3
Mitt Romney/Marco Rubio: 22

[Politician]

GO MITT

[LoneStarDem]

Go on because I'm waiting for more results