MT-WPA Intelligence (R) - Rosendale +2

[MT Treasurer]

It’s definitely closer to Tester +3 or something like that right now, but the idea that this race is Safe D or less competitive than NJ, MN or WI is nothing short of ridiculous.

A poll showing both Rosen and Rosendale ahead in the same week. I'm surprised the forum hasn't spontaneously combusted yet.

Haha, I love it.

[MT Treasurer]

Rosendale has been hit with an unprecedented and constant barrage of attack ads which the GOP hasn’t countered effectively, he’s being heavily outspent and he’s losing the ground war badly. The fundamentals still favor Democrats in this race, but maybe if the NRSC/outside GOP groups started putting actual effort into winning this race and defining Tester like they did with Heitkamp instead of wasting $$$ in NV and basing their target list on Charlie Cook's garbage "analysis"/Senate rankings it could become more competitive. Still Lean D for now, I’m not getting my hopes up here. ND, IN, MO and FL are better targets, but WV and MT definitely need to be contested by the GOP.

[MT Treasurer]

If Tester is losing, then Democrats are probably losing around 5 Senate seats.

Hmm, losing NV and AZ, gaining IN, MO, ND, MT and FL = R+3. Not that implausible if 2016 trends continue.

And no, Tester isn’t going to vote for Kavanaugh, the #resistance base in MT (unlike ND) is actually fairly sizable and a major reason why Tester has such a high floor. As far as the database is concerned, people here were quick to add that garbage from Gravis and Morning Consult to the database, so I see no reason why this one shouldn’t be added, especially since it’s not even a model like that MO "poll".