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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MT-WPA Intelligence (R) - Rosendale +2
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Author Topic: MT-WPA Intelligence (R) - Rosendale +2  (Read 2137 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: August 27, 2018, 09:40:18 am »
« edited: August 27, 2018, 01:08:13 pm by GeorgiaModerate »

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/republican-poll-shows-tight-race-for-montana-senate

Rosendale 47
Tester 45

Aug. 20-22, 600 likely voters.

I think this is an R internal, but not sure.

Edit: Yes, this was conducted for the NRSC.
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President Biden
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« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2018, 09:49:44 am »

Lol, but this race will probably be close.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2018, 09:50:25 am »

Cue Atlas calling this race lean R
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2018, 09:51:59 am »

The difference between the House and the Senate is that for the Senate, Republicans can occasionally scrounge up internals worth releasing.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2018, 09:52:39 am »

Junk poll, Tester is favored in this race. Still lean D.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2018, 09:54:04 am »

A poll showing both Rosen and Rosendale ahead in the same week. I'm surprised the forum hasn't spontaneously combusted yet.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2018, 09:54:32 am »

The difference between the House and the Senate is that for the Senate, Republicans can occasionally scrounge up internals worth releasing.
Thats a rather good point. Its possible that we are more favoured for that seat than previously thought.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2018, 09:55:11 am »

Itís definitely closer to Tester +3 or something like that right now, but the idea that this race is Safe D or less competitive than NJ, MN or WI is nothing short of ridiculous.

A poll showing both Rosen and Rosendale ahead in the same week. I'm surprised the forum hasn't spontaneously combusted yet.

Haha, I love it.
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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2018, 10:02:54 am »

It's time for more MT polls. This is a competitive race. Just because it's MT doesn't mean it has to fly under the radar.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2018, 10:08:22 am »

It's time for more MT polls. This is a competitive race. Just because it's MT doesn't mean it has to fly under the radar.


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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2018, 10:20:44 am »

Itís a Republican internal, but clearly Democrats canít take this seat for granted. We donít want another 2016 when Democrats are declaring victory long before the election.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2018, 10:23:22 am »

Rosendale has been hit with an unprecedented and constant barrage of attack ads which the GOP hasnít countered effectively, heís being heavily outspent and heís losing the ground war badly. The fundamentals still favor Democrats in this race, but maybe if the NRSC/outside GOP groups started putting actual effort into winning this race and defining Tester like they did with Heitkamp instead of wasting $$$ in NV and basing their target list on Charlie Cook's garbage "analysis"/Senate rankings it could become more competitive. Still Lean D for now, Iím not getting my hopes up here. ND, IN, MO and FL are better targets, but WV and MT definitely need to be contested by the GOP.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2018, 10:48:16 am »

Fake News. Unbeatable Electoral Titan Jon Tester will win with 97% of the vote.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2018, 11:07:11 am »

Itís an internal but the dems and reps shouldnít write it off
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« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2018, 11:09:34 am »
« Edited: August 27, 2018, 11:12:57 am by Representative weatherboy1102 »

Edge of likely and lean D since this is an R internal
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2018, 11:13:50 am »

Tester signaling a surprising willingness to vote for Kavanaugh may suggest he also finds this race close
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2018, 11:46:53 am »

Tester signaling a surprising willingness to vote for Kavanaugh may suggest he also finds this race close

Quit kidding yourself, Tester will vote No.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2018, 12:03:45 pm »

It's over folks. Safe R now.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #18 on: August 27, 2018, 12:11:43 pm »

Close race here.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #19 on: August 27, 2018, 12:36:50 pm »

Pure toss up
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2018, 12:50:00 pm »

Their Missouri "poll" was not actually a poll, merely a model these morons came up with. I hope it is not entered into the database.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: August 27, 2018, 01:09:01 pm »

Their Missouri "poll" was not actually a poll, merely a model these morons came up with. I hope it is not entered into the database.

This one claims to be a real poll of 600 likely voters from Aug. 20-22.  (I've edited the OP to include that information.)
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Greatblueheron
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« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2018, 01:20:16 pm »

If Tester is losing, then Democrats are probably losing around 5 Senate seats.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2018, 01:33:08 pm »

If Tester is losing, then Democrats are probably losing around 5 Senate seats.

Hmm, losing NV and AZ, gaining IN, MO, ND, MT and FL = R+3. Not that implausible if 2016 trends continue.

And no, Tester isnít going to vote for Kavanaugh, the #resistance base in MT (unlike ND) is actually fairly sizable and a major reason why Tester has such a high floor. As far as the database is concerned, people here were quick to add that garbage from Gravis and Morning Consult to the database, so I see no reason why this one shouldnít be added, especially since itís not even a model like that MO "poll".
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Lucas Whitefur
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« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2018, 01:45:58 pm »

MT Treasurer has a point. The country is getting more polarized - in 2016 the winning party in each Senate race was the same as the winning party in the presidential race in each state.
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