New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[free my dawg]

Lynch would probably be the strongest candidate Democrats could put up and would have a chance of winning.

I would disagree. Lynch isn't entrenched or institutional like the Sununus were. He was a popular governor with a strong record, of course, but he's faded out of the minds of the people. 10 years ago is a long time. When John Lynch left the governor's mansion, Gangnam Style was taking over the Internet, Taylor Swift had just started her musical evolution to pop, and I was a DNC hack who wanted to join the Democratic Party to change the world.

Between that, the moderate heroism, and him campaigning for a de facto Republican, he seems like a memberberry candidate like McAuliffe or Bredesen. He'd lose pretty handily to Sununu, even considering NH's high-information bend. Someone like Pappas or a political outsider would be much better.

[Roll Roons]

Lynch would probably be the strongest candidate Democrats could put up and would have a chance of winning.

I would disagree. Lynch isn't entrenched or institutional like the Sununus were. He was a popular governor with a strong record, of course, but he's faded out of the minds of the people. 10 years ago is a long time. When John Lynch left the governor's mansion, Gangnam Style was taking over the Internet, Taylor Swift had just started her musical evolution to pop, and I was a DNC hack who wanted to join the Democratic Party to change the world.

Between that, the moderate heroism, and him campaigning for a de facto Republican, he seems like a memberberry candidate like McAuliffe or Bredesen. He'd lose pretty handily to Sununu, even considering NH's high-information bend. Someone like Pappas or a political outsider would be much better.

Bredesen lost because of the state's partisanship. I really don't think any other Democrat could have done as well as him.

[Duke of York]

https://www.wmur.com/article/former-gov-john-lynch-says-hes-not-considering-running-for-governor-again/38227457#

Lynch says he is not considering running.

[HarrisonL]

There's no doubt Lynch was formidable a decade ago, but I really don't see him doing much next year if he does run. It's just hard to revive the political energy one loses after leaving office. The longer the gap the more it fades.

[free my dawg]

Here's a roadmap to beating Sununu, and how to turn the state blue:

1. Return to their local roots - The "Trump guy through and through" strategy has been an unmitigated disaster for Democrats in the state. For those who aren't familiar, Sununu made a quote in a debate that he was a “Trump guy through and through” in the primary. The quote became the NHDP's centerpiece of their campaign strategy since Sununu got elected.

It sounded desperate and ignored that Sununu had been noncontroversial, especially during pre-vaccination COVID. Abortion and post-vax COVID are weak spots now, but you won't be able to beat Sununu alone on those issues. You have to mix in local issues. Youngkin didn't win on Biden bashing and Ciattarelli didn't come close by saying "Let's go Brandon" over and over again. They did well by remembering that all politics is local.

2. Education, education, education - This is by far the weakest spot of Sununu's campaign. His agenda is the most conservative that has been passed since Brownback and Fallin. It's all based on DeVos's "education freedom account" plan, and has run massively over budget, costing $7 million instead of the $130,000 advertised. He nominated a DeVos-esque, unqualified political hack to be his Secretary of Education and together they're filtering money from our schools and communities to fund their donors.

This is the single biggest missed opportunity that the NHDP has had regarding Sununu. It might not be as important as COVID or the economy, but education has made the GOP radioactive in states like Kansas and Pennsylvania. Cuts to the USNH even caused a mini-wave on the state level here 10 years ago. You could have easily done the same here but for whatever baffling reason the NHDP has never really made Sununu's education policies an issue.

3. Flip the script on taxes - The "I'm not like other Democrats" strategy isn't enough. The message shouldn't be that Democrats Don't Actually Support Income Taxes, but that Republicans are the party of higher taxes and want to shift the tax burden onto our local communities and property taxes. While taking The Pledge to not support income taxes is important, there's a way to win while supporting an income tax.

There's a reason why Volinsky was the most successful progressive candidate in recent memory. He explicitly ran on cutting property taxes and had an effective counter to Feltes's attacks regarding an income tax. He lost by 5%. In contrast, Jackie Cilley, the progressive candidate, campaigned against the idea of tying herself to The Pledge and lost by 14%. By flipping the script, Volinsky stayed competitive in the primary and I believe he would have won if he entered earlier. It's no coincidence his ideas are starting to take hold in the party establishment.

4. Attack Sununu's roots - Sununu is a dynasty candidate. He came from a rich political family, used their connections to form a consulting company, bought a ski resort with the help of his family, and got elected with the help of his family. He may be an engineer, but how can a man of science throw in with anti-vaxxers at every turn?

Attacking Kennedy's upbringing in a Democratic primary in Massachusetts didn't hurt Markey much. People are tired of politics as usual, and that runs both ways. A self-made political outsider can win.

It's a shame that Feltes didn't have the campaigning skills because his background was perfect to beat Sununu. Feltes was a lawyer who came from a humble, working-class background, gave back to his community as a legal aid lawyer, and fought his way up the ladder. Instead he never really defined himself and ran an uninspired, negative campaign spouting off party talking points. Someone like a Joyce Craig or a Tom Sherman would be perfect, background-wise. Pappas doesn't fit this but at least has deep ties to Manchester.

5. Define the legislature and tie him to it - As I've said, the legislature is one of the most far-right in the country. It's probably the single most anti-vaccine legislature in the United States. Our Speaker of the House has made appearances at anti-vax rallies and our Executive Council was the only legislative body to deny federal vaccine funding. Downplay talk about Biden's mandate, and talk about how Sununu's cronies are opposed to the COVID vaccine itself. This is Sununu's legislature that he endorsed and campaigned for. He said to elect Republicans to help him enact his agenda. At best, the legislature is in control of him. At worst, he's an anti-vax, anti-abortion extremist.

6. Go more specific on abortion - Sununu's abortion ban is controversial and divisive at face value. It's absolutely something that can and will hurt him, but any sort of abortion ban is at best 50-50. Focus more on the deeper parts, like him forcing invasive ultrasounds and refusing to include exceptions for rape and incest. Aside from term, it's one of the strictest abortion bans in the nation. He may say that he opposes some of these things, but he signed the bill. This is his abortion ban and he has to take ownership.

7. Conman Chris - Sununu has gotten this far from his smiley, positive, Nice Guy FF image. You want to portray him as a snake oil salesman who is looking for a quick buck and political donations. You portray him as someone who will change his beliefs and sell us out for a quick campaign donation. You portray him as someone who will spread COVID throughout the state or force a rape victim to carry their rapist's baby for a vote. You paint him as a looter who is willing to take from us and our local communities and give to his donors and friends in the party. If he says he opposed these things, he's lying. He signed the damn bills.

[Roll Roons]

Wow: https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1478079481583656965

[free my dawg]

Secretary of State Bill Gardner is resigning. This ends a 46-year long career at the post. When Gardner took office, some little-known attorney named Bill Shaheen had just chaired Carter's NH campaign, Gerald Ford was president, Chadwick Boseman had just turned 3 days old, and a cool little sports movie named Rocky was making waves across America. He's had an interesting career, to say the least.

Despite being a Democrat, everyone saw Gardner as a nonpartisan figure until around 2018. He's been seen as the defender of the NH primary, even getting re-elected by the GOP supermajority in these tumultuous times. Nobody really had an issue with him - even the Freedom Caucus-types. Of course, that all ended when he decided to serve on Trump's voter fraud commission.

This started Gardner's fall from grace with the NHDP. At best, he was a serial bothsidesist who took Trump's bad-faith commission seriously. At worst, he was quite literally a Democrat in Name Only who didn't believe in his party's right to vote. Either way, he was essentially a Republican on voting rights and became the de facto Republican candidate once he joined the sham commission.

In 2018, he got a challenge from failed gubernatorial candidate Colin van Ostern. The election (and SoS elections in general) are very strange. Here, we elect SoS through the state legislature, and Democrats had taken both chambers and had a 30-seat margin. Gardner won re-election by 4 votes.

Now, to be fair, most of this is because of the age of the legislature. Many of the Gardner Democrats were old and had been in politics as long as he did. Some, like state senator Lou D'Allessandro and state rep Barbara Shaw, have known Gardner personally for longer than some members' parents have been alive. They have long-standing political and personal connections to him. Despite these advantages, most saw Gardner's re-election as a major upset.

But I've always argued that Democrats blew this race. State party leadership had effectively coronated Van Ostern, and his status as an elected official and candidate played into pro-Gardner talking points about "injecting partisanship into the SoS office" and using the office as a stepping stone. CVO's campaign was essentially a legal pay-to-play scheme. He had a PAC that supported your State House run with the unspoken expectation that you voted for him. There was another candidate in the "primary" who had effectively endorsed Gardner after losing because the state party pushed him out for donorbux.

Either way, this marks an end to an institution in NH politics. I don't believe there will be a special election, and deputy SoS David Scanlan will succeed him. He has the same policies as Gardner, but has shown some token support for Democrats. It's unknown that he stays in.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/FostersDailyDem/status/1478397561149038598?t=SP3g_sOQYkCaWvi...

Likely R --> Titanium R

Looks like I'll be voting third party for governor too.

[free my dawg]

Truly amazing stuff, folks. After four years of screaming Orange Man Bad ad nauseam, you finally have a chance to attack Sununu's record...

and you throw it all away to embrace California-style Branch COVIDianism.

[xavier110]

Truly amazing stuff, folks. After four years of screaming Orange Man Bad ad nauseam, you finally have a chance to attack Sununu's record...

and you throw it all away to embrace California-style Branch COVIDianism.

I am no COVID authoritarian (I got it eating out living my life!) but what is so objectionable about encouraging mask wearing indoors and vaccination? That’s all that article seemingly amounted to, which surprised me given your reaction

[free my dawg]

Truly amazing stuff, folks. After four years of screaming Orange Man Bad ad nauseam, you finally have a chance to attack Sununu's record...

and you throw it all away to embrace California-style Branch COVIDianism.

I am no COVID authoritarian (I got it eating out living my life!) but what is so objectionable about encouraging mask wearing indoors and vaccination? That’s all that article seemingly amounted to, which surprised me given your reaction

This goes far beyond encouraging mask-wearing and explicitly endorses a mask mandate. Berlin has had blanket mandates for a while, and Keene and Nashua just put them out as well. (Manchester doesn't really count, as the mandate applies to public buildings)

This is an unelectable and ridiculous position, considering we've been "back to normal" for nine months and been fine, even through the rise of Delta. Sununu's pandemic approval has been in the high 50s because of our return to normalcy. Bringing back mask mandates in response to the rise of a less dangerous variant is electoral poison.

You can't just try to shove the genie back in the bottle when he's been living fine outside it. I know I won't be the only one driven away by the "muh numbers" crowd.

[Calthrina950]

Truly amazing stuff, folks. After four years of screaming Orange Man Bad ad nauseam, you finally have a chance to attack Sununu's record...

and you throw it all away to embrace California-style Branch COVIDianism.

I am no COVID authoritarian (I got it eating out living my life!) but what is so objectionable about encouraging mask wearing indoors and vaccination? That’s all that article seemingly amounted to, which surprised me given your reaction

This goes far beyond encouraging mask-wearing and explicitly endorses a mask mandate. Berlin has had blanket mandates for a while, and Keene and Nashua just put them out as well. (Manchester doesn't really count, as the mandate applies to public buildings)

This is an unelectable and ridiculous position, considering we've been "back to normal" for nine months and been fine, even through the rise of Delta. Sununu's pandemic approval has been in the high 50s because of our return to normalcy. Bringing back mask mandates in response to the rise of a less dangerous variant is electoral poison.

You can't just try to shove the genie back in the bottle when he's been living fine outside it. I know I won't be the only one driven away by the "muh numbers" crowd.

It does astonish me how Democrats have tied themselves to mask mandates, and that they have done so in such an enthusiastic and vigorous manner. Of course, many Democratic voters strongly support mask mandates and have acquiesced to them with few or no problems. But mask mandates aren't the kind of policy that would appeal to independents, and they arouse the near-universal opposition of Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Truly amazing stuff, folks. After four years of screaming Orange Man Bad ad nauseam, you finally have a chance to attack Sununu's record...

and you throw it all away to embrace California-style Branch COVIDianism.

I am no COVID authoritarian (I got it eating out living my life!) but what is so objectionable about encouraging mask wearing indoors and vaccination? That’s all that article seemingly amounted to, which surprised me given your reaction

This goes far beyond encouraging mask-wearing and explicitly endorses a mask mandate. Berlin has had blanket mandates for a while, and Keene and Nashua just put them out as well. (Manchester doesn't really count, as the mandate applies to public buildings)

This is an unelectable and ridiculous position, considering we've been "back to normal" for nine months and been fine, even through the rise of Delta. Sununu's pandemic approval has been in the high 50s because of our return to normalcy. Bringing back mask mandates in response to the rise of a less dangerous variant is electoral poison.

You can't just try to shove the genie back in the bottle when he's been living fine outside it. I know I won't be the only one driven away by the "muh numbers" crowd.

It does astonish me how Democrats have tied themselves to mask mandates, and that they have done so in such an enthusiastic and vigorous manner. Of course, many Democratic voters strongly support mask mandates and have acquiesced to them with few or no problems. But mask mandates aren't the kind of policy that would appeal to independents, and they arouse the near-universal opposition of Republicans.

That's not true - mask mandates have consistently been popular according to polling, with it usually being like 58/35-40 or something.

[Calthrina950]

Truly amazing stuff, folks. After four years of screaming Orange Man Bad ad nauseam, you finally have a chance to attack Sununu's record...

and you throw it all away to embrace California-style Branch COVIDianism.

I am no COVID authoritarian (I got it eating out living my life!) but what is so objectionable about encouraging mask wearing indoors and vaccination? That’s all that article seemingly amounted to, which surprised me given your reaction

This goes far beyond encouraging mask-wearing and explicitly endorses a mask mandate. Berlin has had blanket mandates for a while, and Keene and Nashua just put them out as well. (Manchester doesn't really count, as the mandate applies to public buildings)

This is an unelectable and ridiculous position, considering we've been "back to normal" for nine months and been fine, even through the rise of Delta. Sununu's pandemic approval has been in the high 50s because of our return to normalcy. Bringing back mask mandates in response to the rise of a less dangerous variant is electoral poison.

You can't just try to shove the genie back in the bottle when he's been living fine outside it. I know I won't be the only one driven away by the "muh numbers" crowd.

It does astonish me how Democrats have tied themselves to mask mandates, and that they have done so in such an enthusiastic and vigorous manner. Of course, many Democratic voters strongly support mask mandates and have acquiesced to them with few or no problems. But mask mandates aren't the kind of policy that would appeal to independents, and they arouse the near-universal opposition of Republicans.

That's not true - mask mandates have consistently been popular according to polling, with it usually being like 58/35-40 or something.

But mask mandates are becoming less popular over time, and support or opposition to them, as I've noted, is sharply polarized along partisan lines at this point, just as the CDC and Dr. Fauci are.

[wbrocks67]

Truly amazing stuff, folks. After four years of screaming Orange Man Bad ad nauseam, you finally have a chance to attack Sununu's record...

and you throw it all away to embrace California-style Branch COVIDianism.

I am no COVID authoritarian (I got it eating out living my life!) but what is so objectionable about encouraging mask wearing indoors and vaccination? That’s all that article seemingly amounted to, which surprised me given your reaction

This goes far beyond encouraging mask-wearing and explicitly endorses a mask mandate. Berlin has had blanket mandates for a while, and Keene and Nashua just put them out as well. (Manchester doesn't really count, as the mandate applies to public buildings)

This is an unelectable and ridiculous position, considering we've been "back to normal" for nine months and been fine, even through the rise of Delta. Sununu's pandemic approval has been in the high 50s because of our return to normalcy. Bringing back mask mandates in response to the rise of a less dangerous variant is electoral poison.

You can't just try to shove the genie back in the bottle when he's been living fine outside it. I know I won't be the only one driven away by the "muh numbers" crowd.

It does astonish me how Democrats have tied themselves to mask mandates, and that they have done so in such an enthusiastic and vigorous manner. Of course, many Democratic voters strongly support mask mandates and have acquiesced to them with few or no problems. But mask mandates aren't the kind of policy that would appeal to independents, and they arouse the near-universal opposition of Republicans.

That's not true - mask mandates have consistently been popular according to polling, with it usually being like 58/35-40 or something.

But mask mandates are becoming less popular over time, and support or opposition to them, as I've noted, is sharply polarized along partisan lines at this point, just as the CDC and Dr. Fauci are.

That's not true either - I've been following the weekly YouGov polls and mask mandates have been generally popular the entire time. People - outside of the typically irrational 30% or so - are not really that against them. If anything, with these variants popping up, it feels like masks themselves have become less polarized than they were before, and especially compared to vaccine mandates.

And lbr, Republicans will be against whatever measures are being implemented/proposed, so it's kind of a moot point

[Calthrina950]

Truly amazing stuff, folks. After four years of screaming Orange Man Bad ad nauseam, you finally have a chance to attack Sununu's record...

and you throw it all away to embrace California-style Branch COVIDianism.

I am no COVID authoritarian (I got it eating out living my life!) but what is so objectionable about encouraging mask wearing indoors and vaccination? That’s all that article seemingly amounted to, which surprised me given your reaction

This goes far beyond encouraging mask-wearing and explicitly endorses a mask mandate. Berlin has had blanket mandates for a while, and Keene and Nashua just put them out as well. (Manchester doesn't really count, as the mandate applies to public buildings)

This is an unelectable and ridiculous position, considering we've been "back to normal" for nine months and been fine, even through the rise of Delta. Sununu's pandemic approval has been in the high 50s because of our return to normalcy. Bringing back mask mandates in response to the rise of a less dangerous variant is electoral poison.

You can't just try to shove the genie back in the bottle when he's been living fine outside it. I know I won't be the only one driven away by the "muh numbers" crowd.

It does astonish me how Democrats have tied themselves to mask mandates, and that they have done so in such an enthusiastic and vigorous manner. Of course, many Democratic voters strongly support mask mandates and have acquiesced to them with few or no problems. But mask mandates aren't the kind of policy that would appeal to independents, and they arouse the near-universal opposition of Republicans.

That's not true - mask mandates have consistently been popular according to polling, with it usually being like 58/35-40 or something.

But mask mandates are becoming less popular over time, and support or opposition to them, as I've noted, is sharply polarized along partisan lines at this point, just as the CDC and Dr. Fauci are.

That's not true either - I've been following the weekly YouGov polls and mask mandates have been generally popular the entire time. People - outside of the typically irrational 30% or so - are not really that against them. If anything, with these variants popping up, it feels like masks themselves have become less polarized than they were before, and especially compared to vaccine mandates.

And lbr, Republicans will be against whatever measures are being implemented/proposed, so it's kind of a moot point

Well, you're correct that mask mandates have been generally popular throughout the pandemic, and that many people have obeyed them. But I still think you underestimate the extent to which this issue has become polarized at this point. It's probably accurate to say that-as with Dr. Fauci-Democrats support mask mandates, Republicans oppose them, and independents support them, but not as overwhelmingly as Democrats. This is to say nothing of the very divergent approach towards such mandates which have been taken by Democratic and Republican jurisdictions. Democratic jurisdictions, in many instances, continue to cling to them, while Republicans have gone so far as to ban them in some areas.

It also depends on where in the country you are located. Rural and small-town areas are far less supportive of mask mandates than large cities are. Nevertheless, I will say that there is a segment of the population that is just as ardently supportive of mask mandates as there are those who oppose them and would rather that such mandates continue in perpetuity. I certainly don't want to see such an outcome.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

"Group of NH House Republicans want New Hampshire to secede from US"

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/592648-lewandowski-says-trump-asked-him-to-look-for-challenger-to-sununu
Trump is trying to find a candidate to challenge Sununu.

[GregTheGreat657]

"Group of NH House Republicans want New Hampshire to secede from US"

Lol

[Schiff for Senate]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/592648-lewandowski-says-trump-asked-him-to-look-for-challenger-to-sununu
Trump is trying to find a candidate to challenge Sununu.

Trump should find a better use of his time.

[free my dawg]

Tom Sherman is officially exploring. He's been long-rumored to be interested and would be a fine candidate. Seems to at least be moving away from the COVID lunacy, so he has a chance. He's good enough to earn my vote to stop Sununu.

The new SD-24 is probably Mindi's if she wants it. It swaps some of the Republican south/western parts of the old district with the town of Exeter, making it pretty much safe if she's looking for a comeback.

[NHI]

Tom Sherman is officially exploring. He's been long-rumored to be interested and would be a fine candidate. Seems to at least be moving away from the COVID lunacy, so he has a chance. He's good enough to earn my vote to stop Sununu.

The new SD-24 is probably Mindi's if she wants it. It swaps some of the Republican south/western parts of the old district with the town of Exeter, making it pretty much safe if she's looking for a comeback.

I’m encouraged by this move. If he focuses on Sununu’s record, then he has a good chance at winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good Tom Sherman next Gov of NH😁

[LAB-LIB]

https://www.seacoastonline.com/story/news/2022/03/07/robert-renny-cushing-dies-hampton-nh-house-democratic-leader-prostate-cancer/9417816002/

New Hampshire State Representative Renny Cushing passed away today from cancer, just five days after stepping down as Minority Leader, at the age of 69. Condolences to his family and friends.

[Orwell]

Can someone tell me who won the election for Bedford School Board? I can’t find the results.