New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[free my dawg]

As we know, Tara Reade's accusations are the top topic in politics. There are many ways to defend your position without looking like an asshole. If you're a Reade skeptic, there are ways to do so while respecting victims of sexual assault. Richard Komi (D-Manchester), an unabashed Biden supporter, decided not to do this.

In fact, Komi took the Todd Akin route:



Unsurprisingly, he has resigned after mass bipartisan calls to step down. The district is D+4 and Trump-trending, but Republicans have won here since 2016. I'd rate the race as a tentative Leans Democratic for now, but it's probably closer to Likely.

ARCHIVES:

2018:
Governor ratings
Senate ratings
Executive Council ratings
Secretary of State's Rating

[free my dawg]

State Senate ratings (2020):



Don't think people will really be interested in this yet. Prelim ratings if people want it.

[free my dawg]

Executive Council ratings (2020):

Don't think people will really be interested in this yet.

[free my dawg]

I took care of this while you were absent.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254901.0

Anyway, Molly Kelly is obviously the stronger candidate here. Hopefully Sununu loses and Democrats crush Republicans across the board!

They don't even need to beat Sununu tbh. They're only 6 seats from an outright supermajority in the Senate

[smoltchanov]

Thanks for great analysis! IMHO - may be slightly too bullish, but that's understandable))))

[MT Treasurer]

I took care of this while you were absent.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254901.0

Anyway, Molly Kelly is obviously the stronger candidate here. Hopefully Sununu loses and Democrats crush Republicans across the board!

They don't even need to beat Sununu tbh. They're only 6 seats from an outright supermajority in the Senate

That’s excellent news, I just want to wipe that smirk off his supporters' and his own face, and prevent him from running against Shaheen or Hassan.

[free my dawg]

Now for statewide takeaways:

* Kelly Blanched Marchand. I thought things would be much closer. I really did, especially considering Marchand. But wow.

* The most contested seat, SD-9, came up for Democrats. Jeanne Deitsch (the scientist who ran a close race in 2016 against Nyquist) won over former gubernatorial candidate Mark Fernald. Meanwhile, DUI lawyer Dan Hynes won in NH-9 over state rep. Terry Wolf. That's a very, very good sign. Mark Fernald is most famous for getting Blanched by Craig Benson and supporting an income tax - a non-starter in this district. Dan Hynes, meanwhile, is not taken seriously in politics. Sure, this is the district that elected Andy Sanborn, but he waited until he got elected to start acting like a pile of trash. I'll be moving this from Tilts D to Likely D.

* The rest of the primaries were washes. The closest one was in SD-16, where Boutin won by 66%.

* Jeff Woodburn won his primary. Fairly commandingly, too. Ted Bosen, the vice chair of the Coos County Democratic Party, has resigned over Woodburn, and partially over the establishment's support of Molly Kelly as well. I'm still going to put it as Lean D though.

[NHI]

Great breakdown; I largely agree with your analysis. The Democrats are in better shape last night than I expected. GOP is running against strong headwinds and with a solid Dem gov nominee they should have a very good night.

[Nyvin]

Here's maps I made of the State Senate with 2016 Presidential results,  I never posted it though.  Letter in the parentheses shows the current incumbent's party. Atlas colors.

[Nyvin]

Here's overall results in each district for 2016:

[Nyvin]

Here's executive council:

[free my dawg]

Great job, Coos. You pissed away a Senate seat because you stood by a wife-beater.

More detailed write-up later.

[free my dawg]

Quick recap of last night:

The bad for Dems:

* Throw UNH's gov polls in the trash. Sununu won fairly handily. He even took Manchester, despite it overwhelmingly voting for Pappas.

* Dems lost EC-4 and SD-1. EC-4 was a heartbreaker - Republicans got the best candidate they could in Ted Gatsas, and he only won by about a percent. SD-1 was gross incompetence on the level of the GOP running Brown and Havenstein. All the county Democrats (and the state party, really) had to do was not stand by a wife-beater. They stood by the wife-beater. This was a very winnable seat, especially considering they picked up the Executive Council seat. Republicans had to scramble to find someone. Democrats had a viable candidate. Instead, the NHDP stayed out in the name of neutrality and the powers that be stuck with a radioactively toxic candidate. In this brave new world, this remarks the end of Jeff Woodburn's political career.

* Democrats underperformed in rural areas. SD-2, SD-7, and SD-8 were all rural districts that were swingy very recently. Hell, SD-7 only flipped in 2016 by 17 votes. SD-2, in particular, has the craziest member of the Senate. They all won, despite their various flaws. The path to a supermajority runs through rural New Hampshire, and their performance (mainly against Guida and French) definitely raises some alarms. I don't think a D supermajority will be in the cards until 2022.

The good for Democrats:

* Despite this, Democrats won control of all three houses of the chamber. It's about a 230-170 split. They need 34 more seats for a supermajority. Porn star Frank Sapareto lost, and Democrats beat House Speaker Gene Chandler (along with a few more stars).

* The fifth time was the charm for county commissioner and perennial candidate Mike Cryans, who finally beat Joe Kenney. This is massively surprising, considering the general Trump-leaning trend, Joe Kenney's entrenchment, and Jeff Woodburn still being a thing. I'm genuinely shocked he won. This weird little quasi-legislative body approves nominees and state contracts. In effect, this also means Planned Parenthood will still be funded.

* Dems still have control of the Senate, matching the University of Cambridge's average of 4 seats.  I was expecting Dems to lose SD-23 - they had solid candidates every year and still lost, even when it was open. I had Dems picking up SD-2 and SD-7 throughout, while I waffled on SD-8. I underestimated how much Belknap and Sullivan were actually re-aligning. IMO, SD-9 and SD-12 were sure bets to flip (due to bad Republican candidate quality). The rest were due to the realignment - the coasts are starting to become Democratic strongholds again.

For what little we know about the future:

* Dietsch and Sherman seem to be the best-placed freshmen, but Chandley isn't that far behind. Realignment certainly helps here, and ironically has made this a vote-sink. I think they will be roughly wave-proof, as will Cavanaugh. Levesque, however, does strikes me as a bit of a weak candidate in the swingiest district in the country, and Morgan is on tough turf. Overall, the NH state senate map has turned itself into a full-blown GOP dummymander, for various reasons. Democrats always had potential in SD-11 - they just couldn't compete because of major recruitment failures. SD-9 and SD-24 are just due to the realignment. In SD-9, they used the majorly GOP stronghold of Bedford to anchor a few Dem-leaning Manchester suburbs, while in SD-24 they removed Portsmouth in favor of R-leaning states. The problem is, in SD-9, Bedford went from "titanium GOP" to "strong GOP", while SD-24 had a steady leftward trend. Republicans will need to win one D-leaning seat from now on to win the senate.

* I'm not sure if Starr will run again. He's 75, and to be honest seems like a completely accidental senator. What little online presence he has is tucked away in the dark depths of the Internet. He has no website for his campaign, only opting for a very Web 1.0 Blogspot blog. I had to significantly dig to find his Facebook. On the issues, he's closer to Trump than Ray Burton, but focuses a bit more on fiscal issues. I'm cautiously optimistic that Democrats could take it back, especially considering how crazily elastic Coos County is.

[Meatball Ron]

Quick recap of last night:

Great write-up! Was pleasantly surprised about the EC results (sort of expected the House and Senate to flip).

Can you elaborate about where the re-alignment occurred, what it means, why, etc.?

[free my dawg]

Quick recap of last night:

Great write-up! Was pleasantly surprised about the EC results (sort of expected the House and Senate to flip).

Can you elaborate about where the re-alignment occurred, what it means, why, etc.?

Generally the same thing you see on a national scale. Rural areas, which were previously swingy, are now Lean R districts, while suburban areas are becoming Lean D.

I originally thought the path to the Democratic majority would go through more rural districts, like SD-2, SD-7, and SD-8. SD-2 and SD-8 are very rural in nature, and I thought they would flip. Due to a combination of strong candidates, wave elections, and Trump, they have stayed consistently Republican. SD-7 does have a history of electing Democrats, but due to the rise of Trump, he lost. These areas have trended Republican, and I would say they're just out of reach.

Instead, the majority was won through SD-9, SD-11, and the coastal districts in SD-23 and SD-24. The coastal districts and SD-9 were pretty clearly gerrymandered. Originally, SD-24 was a Likely D district that fell to moderate Republican Nancy Stiles in the wave. Because she won, they decided to make a new vote sink based around Portsmouth (rather than Dover), took in some more Republican areas in SD-23, and SD-23 compensated by taking in more GOP-leaning Manchester exurbs. The areas in question trended towards Hillary due to anti-Trump backlash and Stiles retiring. SD-23 is still swingy - I'd say Dems picked it up because Morgan was that good of a candidate - but I think SD-24 is Lean D as of now.

SD-9 was the GOP town of Bedford, mixed with a few swingy towns and the Democratic stronghold of Peterborough. The swingy towns went to Trump, but the Manchester suburbs trended sharply to Hillary. Although they've gone from Titanium R to Solid R, it was enough to offset the rural towns and tip the balance in Dietsch's favor.

SD-11 is a curious case in that Democrats hadn't fielded a proper candidate since 2008. They either fielded marijuana activist/Some Dude Roger Tilton or nobody at all. I was always of the school of thought that Democrats could be competitive here.

SD-1 is very, very weird, in that the result's a bit of an anomaly due to the Woodburn scandal. I'll have to check the results to see how Cryans did in Coos.

[free my dawg]

2018 NH-Gov ratings - saved for posterity

Republicans:

Chris Sununu: An enigma. He is neither conservative nor liberal. He is a Romneyist, in that he is a man of zero principle. Chris Sununu believes in whatever is politically convenient at the time for Chris Sununu. Whether it be Planned Parenthood, voting rights, or rail, Chris Sununu has flip-flopped on many issues. On the other hand, he has remained relatively inoffensive to the center of the state. If Democrats won a supermajority, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a change of heart on things like HB1264 to gear up for a Senate run in the near future.

Democrats:

Molly Kelly: The state establishment's horse. A very fine candidate who's favored in the primary. Former state senator from Keene.

Steve Marchand: Former Portsmouth mayor. Interestingly enough, a former No Labels NH head who later became a Berniecrat.

Outlook: Leans Kelly. She's a very powerful political opponent.

General:

I'd say it Leans R. He hasn't really done a lot to alienate the political center, and Democrats aren't really sending their best. Sure, he's far ahead of both Kelly and Marchand, but I attribute that to low name recognition.

[free my dawg]

2018 State Senate ratings - archived for posterity



State Senate candidate profiles. Italics mean open seats, and I'll be updating as I get info. This will be the main battleground, I believe, and there's certainly a chance that the GOP gerrymander will fall and the Democrats will have a supermajority.

SD-1 (D+1): This is the North Country seat. It swung very hard to Trump, where Senate Minority Leader Jeff Woodburn (D) ran 55-45 against a Some Dude. The GOP could conceivably knock him off with a better candidate in a good year, but 2018 doesn't seen like the time. Now, normal logic says to field a credible candidate, make Democrats play a little bit on the defensive, and take a real shot at 2020. But this is the NHGOP. Instead, the NHGOP has failed to field a candidate.I would have rated this Likely D, but this is clearly a Safe D seat.
As of August 3rd, there's been a major development in this race. Woodburn has been arraigned on domestic violence and possibly sexual assault. Right now the GOP is stuck with Some Dude David Starr. Woodburn is refusing to resign, despite 90% of prominent politicians in the state calling on him to do so. Logging business owner Kathleen Kelley is running in his stead. Stranger things have happened - Ray Burton (a similar institutional figure in North Country politics) won his race despite massive calls to resign over employing a pedophile. Gun to my head, in an open race, I'll go with the environment change. Tilts D

SD-2 (R+3): A bit of a vote-sink. Obama won 50-47 in 2012, but Trump took it 51-43. Encompasses most of the Lakes Region, and sinks through lower Grafton County . After Jeanie Forrester retired in her failed bid for Governor, noted loon Bob Giuda (R) won this seat 54-46. Plymouth Selectman Bill Bolton seems to be the Democratic candidate, which is fairly iffy but doable. I'm admittedly unsure how to rate this, but there's clearly ground to make up here for Democrats. Toss-up

SD-3 (R+4): Businessman Steven Steiner is running in the GOP primary, but let's be real. This seat is Jeb Bradley's as long as he wants it. Attorney Chris Meier is running as well. Safe R.

SD-4 (D+6): David Watters (D) usually underperforms compared to other Safe D seats, but will hold on here. He also has no opponent. Safe D

SD-5 (D+16): A votesink designed to dilute Democratic strength in the northwest part of the state. Has Hanover and Claremont. Martha Hennessey will win here, even if she faced anyone. But instead, they failed to Safe D.

SD-6 (R+6): Consists of Rochester, its suburbs, and the lower Lakes Region. Once again, swung very heavily to Trump after Sam Cataldo retired for a quixotic bid for Executive Council. Went from 50-49 Obama to a staggering 55-39 Trump. Former state rep. James Gray won by a similar 55-45 margin. Democrats are running Anne Grassie, a school board member and former 10-term state representative. She got washed out by noted birther and Bundy Rancher Susan DeLemus in 2014, and this is a heavily R-trending district. I'm surprised if this flips. Likely R

SD-7 (R+3): State rep/auctioneer Harold French flipped this seat by just 17 votes in a bit of an upset. Former occupant Andrew Hosmer survived in 2014 by the skin of his teeth, but the 7-point Trump trend was too much for him to bear in this Lakes Region seat. Diversity consultant/selectman Mason Donovan is the candidate of choice here for Democrats. Not as good as Hosmer, but considering the wave's led to commanding results in the area, they might not need an A-lister. Toss-up

SD-8 (R+3): This district, which encompasses most of Sullivan County and rural Merrimack County, has been a Democratic target since 2014, when local institution and truly moderate Republican Bob Odell retired. After Republican Jerry Little won handily, he got appointed to some banking commission, and it started again. The third time was the charm for nurse and two-time failed state Rep candidate Ruth Ward, who finally won as a state senator in 2016. Ward's main issue was school choice, which got her a win in the primary and could be a viability here in the general with Kelly's focus on education. Democrats are running geographer Jenn Alford-Teaster here. This generally seems to be a bit more Republican down-ballot, and the swing from 50-47 Obama to 51-44 Clinton does not help her case. However, she is raising money at a very good clip. Toss-up

SD-9 (D+1): Ironically, this gerrymandered district may have finally cracked with the 5-point trend towards Clinton and incumbent Andy Sanborn's run for Congress. Businesswoman/scientist Jeanne Deitsch is running on the Democratic side after after losing the primary in 2016. Republicans nominated Dan Hynes, a DUI lawyer who isn't respected in GOP circles. Likely D (Pickup!)

SD-10 (D+14): Keene district. Jay Kahn is running against businessman/former cop Dan LeClair. Safe D.

SD-11 (R+3): This is going to be a bit rough. Democrats have had trouble recruiting candidates here, with Some Dude Roger Tilton running both times against longtime state representative Gary Daniels. He ran again, but Democrats went with a more credible candidate in battle-tested state rep Shannon Chandley. One thing that holds up well is that the district hasn't trended to Trump, so I'm gonna go out on a limb here. Toss-up

SD-12 (R+2): Kevin Avard is running here against former state representative Melanie Levesque (D) and small-town school board member Tom Falter. Avard is one of the people who claimed the Parkland shooters were crisis actors, so that shows how nuts he is. Strangely enough, Nashua alderman Richard Dowd challenged him in the primary from his left on gun control. He also has a history of losing in D-leaning years like 2012, so it's perfectly plausible to see him go down. Tilts D

SD-13 (D+6): After Bette Lasky decided to retire, 7-term state representative Cindy Rosenwald decided to succeed her. Aside from 2010, no Republicans have run here, and since this isn't an R wave there's no way I can even leave this at Likely. Safe D

SD-14 (R+8): Sharon Carson has this exurban Manchester seat. I honestly don't see Democrats winning, with Some Dudette (gymnastics coach) Tammy Siekmann running. Safe R

SD-15 (D+11): Dan Feltes isn't losing here, and has no challenger. Safe D

SD-16 (R+2): Attorney Kevin Cavanaugh (D) beat David Boutin, the previous occupant of this seat, 55-44, after teacher's union head Scott McGilvray died in office. With Boutin running again, I don't see why things wouldn't change here. Leans D

SD-17 (R+6): This district, which is a lot of the boonies of Rockingham/rural Merrimack County, used to be a fairly even seat, with Republican John Reagan as its occupant. Democrats seem to be coalescing behind attorney Chris Roundy, and while I said it would be hard to get an opening, Reagan's resurrection of SB193 may be that one. Likely R

SD-18 (R+1): Donna Soucy (D), who has been floated as a rising star in the party, is running in this Manchester-based seat. Challenger is libertarian-leaning George Lambert. He's not a good candidate, to say the very least. He couldn't get the job done in 2014, and recently lost his primary to Mark McLean. Safe D

SD-19 (R+9): Regina Birdsell, who is leading the march against voting rights, is running. Sure, it's suburban Manchester, but it's not the small-town kind of suburban Manchester where Dems can sh**t out a win. Candidate is Some Dudette (art galley curator) Kristina Durocher. Safe R

SD-20 (D+2): There's a similar effect that Republicans have in SD-3. Lou D'Allessandro is an institution in Manchester politics. By recognition alone, he'll win. His challenger is, once again, Free State leader Carla Gericke. Safe D

SD-21 (D+16): Martha Fuller Clark is running. This is a far cry from the district where she lost in 2010, in that this is now a vote sink. Peter MacDonald is the candidate of choice, again. Safe D

SD-22 (R+12): State Senate President Chuck Morse isn't losing here. His guy is some guy. Safe R

SD-23 (R+4): Bill Gannon (R) is running against cybersecurity expert Jon Morgan (D). I'm gonna go out on a bit of a limb here and call this a Lean R seat. Sure, you've got your Manchester exurbs weighing down the seat, but these are literally the same exurbs that elected Kari Lerner. I think there's an opening to take Hassan's former seat back, especially after it got gerrymandered.

SD-24 (R+2): Dan Innis found a home in this gerrymandered dsistrict after failing to beat Frank Guinta in the primaries. Democrats seem to be running Tom Sherman again, who lost by 4 points last year. Toss-up

Control of the state Senate is a toss-up right now. The shift from Reaganism to Trumpism has created a bit of a dummymander. You see suburban districts solidifying support for Democrats, while most of the rural districts are still largely elastic. Gun to my head, I think Dems pick up 2, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, and 24. Dems are very high on SD-8, SD-23, and SD-24, with SD-6 and SD-17 being wave targets. The only districts Democrats are playing defense are SD-16 and SD-1.

Safe D: 4, 5, 10, 13, 15, 18, 20, 21 (
Likely D: 9 (1)
Leans D: 12, 16 (2)
Tilts D: 1 (1)
Toss-up: 2, 7, 8, 11, 24 (5)
Leans R: 23 (1)
Likely R: 6, 17 (2)
Safe R: 3, 14, 19, 22 (4)

That's where the race is playing out, imo. I'd say the senate Leans D at this point. I'd call 2 races pickups, and with the amount of defense the GOP is playing, they cannot win. To give you an idea of how precarious of a position the GOP is in, losing 4 of the 5 toss-up seats means the Democrats have a supermajority. A supermajority means a total restoration of voting rights, ironclad school vouchers, and legal weed.  

[free my dawg]

2018 Executive Council ratings (archived for posterity) :

EC-1: (D+1) This district is made up of the North Country, the Lakes Region, and the White Mountains, and is represented by Joe Kenney (R) ever since long-time Executive Councilor Ray Burton died in 2013. Burton was a key part of the EC gerrymander. He served 34 years on the Council, and made a D+3 district Safe R. Kenney is a formidable candidate, despite being in a swingy district, and has been very difficult for Democrats to beat. He's an officer in the Marines, and before running for EC, was a state senator for 6 years. Work called, he deployed to Afghanistan, and after he got back, he ran for the EC successfully. He faces token primary opposition from Some Dudette Kim Strathdee.

I rated this a toss-up originally, but I do have some good news for the GOP. For the fifth time, Democrats are running Grafton County Commissioner Mike Cryans. He originally ran in 1996, but ran in the special election in 2013, the 2014 general, and 2016. He's currently gained the P-word - a dreaded label for any serious candidate for office. I'm very bearish on this seat, due to Democrats' candidate quality and the seat's general elasticity. They really couldn't find anyone else to run? Leans R

EC-2: (D+7) The gerrymandered one stretching from Keene to Durham. Andru Volinsky runs here, and is running against Jim Beard, a former state rep who lost in the 2016 primary for SD-8. Technically, Beard has a primary from Some Dudette Linda Rae Banfill, Despite being designed as a Democratic vote sink (and is being used as a Trumpist), Sam Cataldo (the Republican candidate) only lost by 6% here. Not only did the rural areas massively trend towards Trump, but Rochester (one of the Democratic anchor towns of the gerrymander) did as well. Unfortunately, Cataldo passed away. I'd say that due to the environment Volinsky survives, though. Likely D

EC-3: (R+4) Russell Prescott represents this Seacoast district (along with a bunch of Manchester's exurbs). He's more moderate than Wheeler and Kenney, voting to fund Planned Parenthood. Conservative activist and businessman Steve Kenda explored a run, but decided against it (presumably after being removed from the cancer cluster committee for denying it ever existed). He will face Joe Pace, a former selectman from Exeter. The good news is that this seat has trended hard towards Hillary, and voted more for her than Obama did in 2008. Despite very clearly being designed to dilute Portsmouth, Democrats can actually do well here. I'd say Prescott has a slight advantage - the only thing preventing me from rating this higher than Tilt R is the strong whiplash towards Hillary and the environment.

EC-4: (R+3) We finally get to an open seat. Here, the stage is largely set. This seat, which encompasses Manchester, Concord's suburbs, and a piece of Strafford County, is Chris Pappas's seat, which will be open.  Republicans have Ted Gatsas, an A-list candidate who happens to be the former mayor of Manchester. Also running in the primary is Jane Cormier, a former state rep and socon activist for the NH Right to Life. Democrats have Garth Corriveau, an attorney from Manchester who used to be an alderman, and tech executive Gray Chynoweth. Considering Cormier's gone a bit perennial, I'd say the primary leans towards Gatsas, and the seat itself Leans Democratic.

EC-5: (R+1) Republican Dave Wheeler is still in this district (which has most of Manchester's western suburbs and rural Hillsborough/Chester County). Democrats have their best candidate in Deb Pignatelli, who used to represent this seat before and is a fixture in Nashua politics. In other words, Democrats are in a very good position in this swingy seat. Tilts D (Pickup!)

Basically, Democrats are doing great, and the map may very well turn into a Republican dummymander. It's a very, very weird map, and the map has more or less stayed the same since it happened. So why could it seismically shift?

• Ray Burton's death - To put it simply, Ray Burton had this seat locked down. He was a truly moderate Republican (one of the last two prominent ones), and he consistently won his elections by wide margins. Instead of calling for a primary, Republicans decided to fill this seat up with Democrats to give themselves a permanent seat. In short, Burton would never lose - he was an institution in the North Country, Democrats knew it, and Republicans knew it. The problem is that part of their gerrymander relied on the health of a man in his 70s. Burton died, and Republicans have narrowly held on due to good environments, the North Country's general Trump trend, and bad Democratic candidates. I would even go as far to say that he would be a Democrat if he were still alive today. This leads to...
• Trump's trend not trending hard enough - The second Executive Council district is one of the most egregious gerrymanders in the country. It slinks all the way from Keene, all the way into rural Cheshire and Sullivan, before taking a hard right to Concord. Then, it goes up and around, passing through a sliver of the Lakes Region and more of rural Merrimack County, and into Strafford. It reaches Rochester, and goes a bit down, passing through Dover before finally ending at Durham. In short, it's a blatant Democratic vote-sink. The problem with this is that there are so many rural towns (along with Rochester, another old mill town like Laconia/Berlin/Franklin that's fallen behind with the working class) that the district wound up becoming a massively Trump district. Volinsky is rather entrenched, as a liberal lion of the state, and is the type of Dem who can win and speak to rural voters. EC-1 is also trending, but was packed with so many Democrats that it wound up not being really relevant. Even with the massive trend to Trump, EC-1 was close between Hillary and Trump, and EC-5 didn't really move much at all. EC-1 is the big one - on the off chance Cryans wins, it'll be because of the GOP's plan to dilute Democrats.
• Suburban trends to Hillary - It's fairly simple. In EC-3, Republicans hemorrhaged support in most of the district (especially the more affluent parts). The only place to really trend hard were the Manchester burbs, Epping (old railroad town), and Seabrook (exactly the place that would vote 60% Trump). In EC-4, more of the same happened, mainly fueled by Bedford swinging 10 points towards Hillary. In short, Democrats have made massive inroads with suburban voters, and it could very well trickle down to the Executive Council.

In short, Democrats are in good shape in NH since 2016. They've recruited a top-tier candidate in their battleground district, made another one competitive, and look decent enough to hold the only iffy one. I'd say Democrats are slightly favored at this point.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1063158645750460417

The House Dem preference count revealed. The magic number, for the record, is 213, since the House and Senate both vote. 24 Democrats were absent. Republicans plan to unite around Gardner. The magic number for Democratic defectors is 34 for Republicans.

This leaves the Senate. Lou D'Allesandro (who's an institution in Manchester politics and isn't beholden to the establishment) is defecting to Gardner, but the rest seem firmly in Van Ostern's corner. There's too much new blood. That means Democrats need 21 more votes.

Most of the scuttlebutt seems to say Van Ostern is favored, but if you want me to be honest, I think it's a pure toss-up. Sullivan's supporters seem to oppose CVO's reforms, and while he hasn't endorsed, he's certainly angry at the NHDP for what he perceives to be a coronation. Assuming Sullivan's supporters break for Gardner and the ratio holds for the absentees, Dems would just barely be at 214. This could really go either way.

[NHI]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1063158645750460417

The House Dem preference count revealed. The magic number, for the record, is 213, since the House and Senate both vote. 24 Democrats were absent. Republicans plan to unite around Gardner. The magic number for Democratic defectors is 34 for Republicans.

This leaves the Senate. Lou D'Allesandro (who's an institution in Manchester politics and isn't beholden to the establishment) is defecting to Gardner, but the rest seem firmly in Van Ostern's corner. There's too much new blood. That means Democrats need 21 more votes.

Most of the scuttlebutt seems to say Van Ostern is favored, but if you want me to be honest, I think it's a pure toss-up. Sullivan's supporters seem to oppose CVO's reforms, and while he hasn't endorsed, he's certainly angry at the NHDP for what he perceives to be a coronation. Assuming Sullivan's supporters break for Gardner and the ratio holds for the absentees, Dems would just barely be at 214. This could really go either way.

It's a roll of the dice. At the moment I think CVO narrowly...

[free my dawg]

As an aside, Steve Stepanek, Trump's old campaign chair up here, is running for NHGOP chair. It's currently unclear if the current GOP chair, Wayne MacDonald, will run again. There are a few candidates that have been floated.

The NHGOP has had massive turnover for its chairmanship. In the 10 years since the NHDP elected Ray Buckley, NH Republicans have had five different chairpeople, and one of them was to nonconsecutive terms. This sheds some light on their electoral problems and relative underperformance compared to other state parties.

* Wayne MacDonald - Incumbent and former chair from 2011-2013. Possible retirement.
* Matt Mayberry - Former Vice Chair, and high-ranking member of the state's Log Cabin Republicans. Most definitely a member of the old guard.
* Kate Day - Activist in Cheshire County. Seems to be a fairly generic conservative.
* Dan Hynes - Two-time failed state senate candidate. Former DUI lawyer. A meme in most circles.
* Michael Biundo - Former Santorum campaign chair. Worked for Kasich and Rand in 2016 before circling the wagon around Trump. Was an instrumental figure recently in Eddie Edwards's campaign, and was Frank Guinta's campaign manager for most of his runs. IMO he'd probably be the strongest, unifying the old guard and the new guard.
* Stephen Stepanek - Early Trumpist and O'Brienite. Former state rep.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1063158645750460417

The House Dem preference count revealed. The magic number, for the record, is 213, since the House and Senate both vote. 24 Democrats were absent. Republicans plan to unite around Gardner. The magic number for Democratic defectors is 34 for Republicans.

This leaves the Senate. Lou D'Allesandro (who's an institution in Manchester politics and isn't beholden to the establishment) is defecting to Gardner, but the rest seem firmly in Van Ostern's corner. There's too much new blood. That means Democrats need 21 more votes.

Most of the scuttlebutt seems to say Van Ostern is favored, but if you want me to be honest, I think it's a pure toss-up. Sullivan's supporters seem to oppose CVO's reforms, and while he hasn't endorsed, he's certainly angry at the NHDP for what he perceives to be a coronation. Assuming Sullivan's supporters break for Gardner and the ratio holds for the absentees, Dems would just barely be at 214. This could really go either way.

It's a roll of the dice. At the moment I think CVO narrowly...

Same. My gut goes with the NHDP establishment being competent.

[NHI]

As an aside, Steve Stepanek, Trump's old campaign chair up here, is running for NHGOP chair. It's currently unclear if the current GOP chair, Wayne MacDonald, will run again. There are a few candidates that have been floated.

The NHGOP has had massive turnover for its chairmanship. In the 10 years since the NHDP elected Ray Buckley, NH Republicans have had five different chairpeople, and one of them was to nonconsecutive terms. This sheds some light on their electoral problems and relative underperformance compared to other state parties.

* Wayne MacDonald - Incumbent and former chair from 2011-2013. Possible retirement.
* Matt Mayberry - Former Vice Chair, and high-ranking member of the state's Log Cabin Republicans. Most definitely a member of the old guard.
* Kate Day - Activist in Cheshire County. Seems to be a fairly generic conservative.
* Dan Hynes - Two-time failed state senate candidate. Former DUI lawyer. A meme in most circles.
* Michael Biundo - Former Santorum campaign chair. Worked for Kasich and Rand in 2016 before circling the wagon around Trump. Was an instrumental figure recently in Eddie Edwards's campaign, and was Frank Guinta's campaign manager for most of his runs. IMO he'd probably be the strongest, unifying the old guard and the new guard.
* Stephen Stepanek - Early Trumpist and O'Brienite. Former state rep.

I can see Stepankek or Biundo getting the chairmanship. The GOP base is angry at the party establishment and hading the reins back over the old guard will not sit well. And you're spot on, the GOP has been a revolving door in the state, lack of a consistent and effective chair, coupled with party infighting has weakened the state party. The Democrats have their act together, and the midterms are the latest evidence of that!

[free my dawg]

Very true. My gut tells me Biundo would be the best choice. He seems like he'd unify the old guard and the base, and would be much less toxic than Stepanek.

[Nyvin]

Dems won the recount in SD-23.   The Dem majority will be 14-10 next year.