New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[Figueira]

https://twitter.com/nhpol603/status/1352399815863394304

One of the other bills flying under the radar is a plan to switch its EC apportionment to a congressional district-based system.

Putting aside the ramifications/debate on whether or not Sununu will back it, it's pretty likely that the GOP will take the approach of a Safe R/Safe D district.

I don't think it's possible to create a Safe R district in New Hampshire. Maybe Likely R.

[Morning in Atlas]

Of course, we can also talk about how they failed to counter Kevin Avard, who is essentially our state's version of MTG/Boebert. Maybe people don't know or care about QAnon, but they'll care when they find out Avard literally said the Parkland shooting was an inside job.

Just really stunning incompetence.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/nhpol603/status/1352399815863394304

One of the other bills flying under the radar is a plan to switch its EC apportionment to a congressional district-based system.

Putting aside the ramifications/debate on whether or not Sununu will back it, it's pretty likely that the GOP will take the approach of a Safe R/Safe D district.

I don't think it's possible to create a Safe R district in New Hampshire. Maybe Likely R.

A hypothetical GOP NH-1 would be competitive with someone like Al Baldasaro as its nominee. It'd be fairly safe with an inoffensive conservative like Birdsell though.

[Brother Jonathan]

What are the chances of the NH GOP going for right to work again? If I remember right they tried for it in 2018 when they last had the trifecta and got tripped up on it. How many of the GOP reps who voted against it are still there?

I would guess they wouldn't just because the majority is so small and there will be GOP Reps who vote against it. That being said never underestimate the desire of the NH GOP to charge headlong into ideological battles it has no hope of winning.

I think Sununu doesn't have much of an appetite for it. He's had a fairly cozy relationship with some of the unions in the state (he was endorsed by the firefighters and IBEW) and he may try to keep them on his side for when he runs for Senate (which seems basically inevitable at this point). To be sure he has had very tense relations with most unions, but why try passing a bill that will face some intraparty opposition and a close vote (likely to fail, even) when he could just let it sit and try to win some support for a Senate run. Even if it is unlikely that the Firefighters will endorse him, I think he would probably rightly just not risk aggravating them and hoping they may endorse him in the end. Maybe the union endorsements don't matter, but still, they don't hurt and it always makes for a good story on the news.

I think the GOP will also try to keep the powder dry for larger issues. And I gather Sununu was a major driver behind the attempt to pass Right to Work in 2018, so I don't really think this is an issue that the leadership is going to have a lot of backbench pressure to act on.

Well, I was wrong on this one. Right to Work is back as Senate Bill 61, with the Majority Leader and Senate President as co-sponsors. It may still fail (I think it likely will, though I really don't know) but in any event, it clearly has some strong support from leadership.

Quite a few interesting (shall we say) bills have been introduced so far this session, but that is par for the course in the 400 member House.

Yikes... thanks for the update even though it’s not a happy one!

A final update for this session on RTW:

https://patch.com/new-hampshire/bedford-nh/nh-house-kills-gop-touted-right-work-bill


As before, the GOP failed to get the votes and Right to Work failed to pass. The GOP knew it was going to fail and tried to table it, but that vote failed so it went to the floor and the ought to pass vote failed 199-175, and then it was "indefinitely postponed," which kills it until 2023, as a 2/3rds majority in favor of reconsidering is unlikely. Hence the GOP effort to table it earlier.

20 GOP reps crossed over to help kill the bill in the final vote.

[Morning in Atlas]

The NHDP has hired a new executive director to right the ship! After the disastrous 2020 cycle, they apparently decided to move on from Amy Kennedy (no relation) and go with an outside hire. Let's see who they went with...

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/1426233894974758918

[Continential]

I wonder how many people within the party are morons.

[Brother Jonathan]

Saw this while on Twitter today:

https://twitter.com/LeahCohen603/status/1427002983909404675

Frank Edelblut, Commissioner of Education and a candidate in the 2016 GOP primary for governor, was the keynote speaker at a meeting of the Belknap County Republican Committee. Signs (which appear to be from his 2016 campaign for Governor) were prominently displayed around the room. Might be nothing, but this doesn't strike me as normal. I'll have to watch the video to find out more, but this seems to be a good indication Edelblut is planning on running for Governor in 2022, or at least that many within the party want him to. I think at this point it's been a pretty open secret for a while that he wanted to run again, and with Sununu likely running for Senate, I suppose he sees this as a good opportunity.

Edelblut strikes me as a rather imposing candidate. He did very well in 2016 despite being only a State Rep and has only increased his profile (and his connections with those within the party) since then. I do think he might be the preferred candidate at this point of many in the GOP, and he might bridge the ideological gaps within the party fairly well. I also don't think he is as weak a general election candidate as some seem to think—he's certainly to Sununu's right, but I think that has sort of been papered over and if he ran a decent campaign he could still win. Still not the strongest candidate for the GOP. I expect he'll make any move official as soon as Sununu does the same, and try to establish himself early.

Also did not realize Karen Testerman, who challenged Sununu in 2020, has already stated she is running in the 2022 primary as well. Article here:

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-karen-testerman-running-again-for-governor-says-im-not-a-protest-candidate/37162007#

[Brother Jonathan]

Per the website, Edleblut didn't bring the signs, but it still shows that many among the rank and file are already in his corner.

[tosk]

https://nhjournal.com/exclusive-poll-nhgop-voters-love-trump-hate-crt-want-secure-border/

here's something interesting:

Ayotte: 45% (!!)
Scott Brown: 13%
Frank Edelbut: ~7%
Chuck Morse: ~6%

Ayotte has more of a commanding lead than I honestly would've expected. Edelbut is lower than expected. Brown I don't think (?) is running.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1440469933440135168

New results coming from Manchester's mayoral election. 2019 candidate Victoria Sullivan beat out talk radio host Rich Girard for the second spot to face Joyce Craig.

The real takeaway here is that she broke 50%. This is a very good sign for the general, especially with Girard not endorsing Sullivan over her "not understanding city politics".

[Brother Jonathan]

https://nhjournal.com/exclusive-poll-nhgop-voters-love-trump-hate-crt-want-secure-border/

here's something interesting:

Ayotte: 45% (!!)
Scott Brown: 13%
Frank Edelbut: ~7%
Chuck Morse: ~6%

Ayotte has more of a commanding lead than I honestly would've expected. Edelbut is lower than expected. Brown I don't think (?) is running.

Brown has suggested he might return to politics, but I doubt he will in 2022, considering his wife is running for Congress in the 1st District.

I'm also amazed Ayotte is polling so well, but that's good news for the GOP if they want to have any chance of holding the Governor's office in 2022. I assume being out of the spotlight for the Trump years has helped her a fair deal there.

She's also been much more visible in the state than in the recent past (she was campaigning for a State Rep special election the other day, for example) so I have to guess she is going to run for whatever office Sununu doesn't run for. Interested to hear who the Democrats perceive as the front runners for their nomination. Joyce Craig and Volinsky are the two that come to my mind.

[Morning in Atlas]

Quick rundown of mayoral races:

* Manchester - Joyce Craig won by 54%. Rich Girard, I guess, didn't run a write-in campaign. Still a slam-dunk win - Sullivan was a bad candidate.

* Laconia - Andrew Hosmer, surprisingly, won with 74% of the vote in this hyper-Trumpy city. Not only does Hosmer have a strong local brand, nearly holding on in 2016, but he was going up against noted neo-Nazi Dawn Johnson.

* Rochester - Republicans picked up the mayor's office 65-31. A bit of a surprise, considering the incumbency.

* Keene - George Hansel, a moderate Republican, held this seat against Mark Zuchowski, an eccentric conservative Democrat who got caught hitting on the staff.

* Portsmouth - Former NH-1 candidate Deaglan McEachern flipped the Mayor's office. It's weird, in that the City Councilor with the highest votes becomes Mayor. This is a bit unexpected news.

[Roll Roons]

Sununu just announced that he's going for a fourth term. Likely/Safe R.

[Morning in Atlas]

Time for a candidate roundup:

Republicans:

Chris Sununu: The incumbent. Needs no introduction, making a bid for his fourth term. Has the legislature to deal with but has been weathering the storm and is still above water.

Karen Testerman: Primary challenger from the pro-COVID wing of the party. Has no chance.

Democrats:

Tom Sherman: State senator from Hampton. Is a doctor, so he has keys with COVID. Fairly moderate but not offensively so. His interest is fairly known and he might be in.

Chris Pappas: By far the most intriguing option. There are rumblings that he'd consider going for governor, but he has a very strong personal brand in the Manchester area. Guy even outperformed Biden. I'd call him the only candidate who can beat Sununu, but he might be better off running in NH-1 (especially if Leavitt wins the primary. Leavitt is no Youngkin).

Joyce Craig: Manchester mayor. Lucked out by facing a bad candidate for mayor twice, but also just won an election.

Melanie Levesque: Is still fairly active in NH politics, despite her loss to a literal Parkland truther. Would get rolled by Sununu.

Cinde Warmington: Only Democrat on the Executive Council. Very close with the Shaheens, who are kingmakers in NH politics.

Andru Volinsky: Lost a close primary bout in 2020. Could run again.

Dan Feltes: Wife took a job in Iowa. He's moving on to life in the private sector - best of luck to him.

Rating: Lean R with Pappas, Likely R with anyone else

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/chrisryan603/status/1458766931734024200?s=21

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/chrisryan603/status/1458766931734024200?s=21

He seems weirdly socialy conservative for a new england democrat, will he get through a primary ?

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/chrisryan603/status/1458766931734024200?s=21

He seems weirdly socialy conservative for a new england democrat, will he get through a primary ?

I’m not too familiar with his record, all I know is that he was very popular when he was in office. I imagine he’d be the Democrats’ best candidate to retake the Governor’s office, he’s probably one of the only candidates that could defeat Sununu.

[Roll Roons]

Lynch has been out of office for a decade now. Do people still remember him?

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/chrisryan603/status/1458766931734024200?s=21

He seems weirdly socialy conservative for a new england democrat, will he get through a primary ?

I’m not too familiar with his record, all I know is that he was very popular when he was in office. I imagine he’d be the Democrats’ best candidate to retake the Governor’s office, he’s probably one of the only candidates that could defeat Sununu.

I think this is Safe R no matter what.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/chrisryan603/status/1458766931734024200?s=21

He seems weirdly socialy conservative for a new england democrat, will he get through a primary ?

I’m not too familiar with his record, all I know is that he was very popular when he was in office. I imagine he’d be the Democrats’ best candidate to retake the Governor’s office, he’s probably one of the only candidates that could defeat Sununu.

I think this is Safe R no matter what.

Sununu would certainly still be heavily favored, but I think Lynch would have a small chance of winning.

[Morning in Atlas]

Still Likely R with Lynch. He's not particularly inspiring to the base (endorsed the de facto GOP candidate for SoS, is anti-marijuana and generally very moderate), and isn't an institution im politics like the Sununus are.

I would be very hesitant to vote for him but ultimately probanly would. I have confidence he'll undo the crap that Sununu has done, plus it provides a check on the loons.

[Duke of York]

Lynch would probably be the strongest candidate Democrats could put up and would have a chance of winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SUNUNU is gonna win in a Midterm what makes NH so unique they like sending females to the state and Fed Legislature like NV but wants SUNUNU as Gov 2024/ SUNUNU is a Prez yr is more likely to lose

Just like Tim Ryan has a chance because Brown been reelected over and over and Mandel and Vance aren't 10 or candidates but Blks like Mike DeWine, Tom Ryan and Brown

Portman was Maverick and wasn't a Trump R like Vance and Mandel are

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/chrisryan603/status/1458766931734024200?s=21

I’m not saying he’s a bad candidate, but I just can’t imagine how he watched the VA-Gov election and thought “I should do that”

[JMT]

Well, that was short lived:

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1458941427279351813?s=21