New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[Meatball Ron]

And even if she isn't, she's not a sexual assault apologist POS like Hennessey.

Wait what, can you elaborate? I assume this is not related to her disclosing that she

[free my dawg]

And even if she isn't, she's not a sexual assault apologist POS like Hennessey.

Wait what, can you elaborate? I assume this is not related to her disclosing that she

Hennessey said that the Flores accusations were a Bernie Bro plot.

Which is very hard to jump to that conclusion, given that Flores was undecided at the time of her accusations, there weren't any inconsistencies in her story, her accusations were purely focused on touching, and eventually decided to back Elizabeth Warren.

In my mind, there's a clear difference between "this is overblown, I believe she feels uncomfortable and can see why but I don't believe Biden didn't mean anything sexual" and "she's only pretending because she wants to help "her candidate"." I found her attitude absolutely revolting, especially coming from a purported advocate against sexual assault. As a victim of sexual harassment, she should have resigned for this.

[Meatball Ron]

And even if she isn't, she's not a sexual assault apologist POS like Hennessey.

Wait what, can you elaborate? I assume this is not related to her disclosing that she

Hennessey said that the Flores accusations were a Bernie Bro plot.

Which is very hard to jump to that conclusion, given that Flores was undecided at the time of her accusations, there weren't any inconsistencies in her story, her accusations were purely focused on touching, and eventually decided to back Elizabeth Warren.

In my mind, there's a clear difference between "this is overblown, I believe she feels uncomfortable and can see why but I don't believe Biden didn't mean anything sexual" and "she's only pretending because she wants to help "her candidate"." I found her attitude absolutely revolting, especially coming from a purported advocate against sexual assault. As a victim of sexual harassment, she should have resigned for this.

Ah jeez. Yeah. I missed that. No bueno at all. I agree with you on all of this.

On the other hand, the Tara Reade accusations could potentially be dismissed as a "Bernie bro plot" given who broke/promoted them and everything that ensued after. But that language is still a bit too harsh/dismissive for my liking.

[Nyvin]

Probably lots of to go over, but is it possible for Democrats to reach 268 seats in the State House?  I know 16 seats in the Senate is feasible.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/miscellanyblue/status/1292104663827910658?s=19

Kevin Avard apparently went Full QAnon.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1622&context=survey_center_polls
I know people are critical of UNH polls to some extent, but I will say this is an interesting finding at least from a ballpark standpoint: they're projecting that the GOP takes back the State House and tie the Senate.

It seems like UNH has had very bullish numbers for the GOP this time around. I mean we also had the poll showing something like a 4 point margin in NH-02, so take it with a grain of salt. Still some interesting numbers.

[NHI]

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1622&context=survey_center_polls
I know people are critical of UNH polls to some extent, but I will say this is an interesting finding at least from a ballpark standpoint: they're projecting that the GOP takes back the State House and tie the Senate.

It seems like UNH has had very bullish numbers for the GOP this time around. I mean we also had the poll showing something like a 4 point margin in NH-02, so take it with a grain of salt. Still some interesting numbers.

Interesting poll, though I'm highly skeptical of UNH's. Last Governor's race they had it tied and Sununu won 52% to 45%

[free my dawg]

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1622&context=survey_center_polls
I know people are critical of UNH polls to some extent, but I will say this is an interesting finding at least from a ballpark standpoint: they're projecting that the GOP takes back the State House and tie the Senate.

It seems like UNH has had very bullish numbers for the GOP this time around. I mean we also had the poll showing something like a 4 point margin in NH-02, so take it with a grain of salt. Still some interesting numbers.

Interesting poll, though I'm highly skeptical of UNH's. Last Governor's race they had it tied and Sununu won 52% to 45%

Even then, where do they even pick up the seats to tie the senate? Their "candidates" for their two best pickup opportunities lost last time, and both are at a major cash disadvantage. Ricciardi's a great candidate, but NH-9 is moving away quickly and Gargiulo has a massive uphill climb despite his self-funding.

I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats whiffed on all their pickups, given how strong of a candidate Hennessey is and how Giuda/Ward have done, but given the environment and how "wavey" the state is I highly doubt it.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1622&context=survey_center_polls
I know people are critical of UNH polls to some extent, but I will say this is an interesting finding at least from a ballpark standpoint: they're projecting that the GOP takes back the State House and tie the Senate.

It seems like UNH has had very bullish numbers for the GOP this time around. I mean we also had the poll showing something like a 4 point margin in NH-02, so take it with a grain of salt. Still some interesting numbers.

Interesting poll, though I'm highly skeptical of UNH's. Last Governor's race they had it tied and Sununu won 52% to 45%

UNH isn't the best when it comes to polling I suppose, but I appreciate that they provide numbers for the State House. They underestimated the Democrats in 2018 in the State House, and the same might prove true here. Part of it, I assume, is just that the personal vote can be a major factor when you may have personally met a large chunk of likely voters. I don't think generic ballot is ever that helpful, and especially not when districts are this small.

[free my dawg]

Quick election guide to the downballot:

NH-Gov:Chris Sununu might be vulnerable in a different time, but it became pretty rapidly clear that Dan Feltes is not that candidate. As I've said, Feltes is the most scripted candidate I've seen since Marco Rubio. The guy's progressive - don't get me wrong - but I was opposed to his candidacy because I think he's unelectable. You can look at him campaigning and you know the guy is extremely stiff, relying on talking points that are often from the NHDP themselves. Sometimes, you can look at the candidate and find a diamond in the rough who might pull off an upset. Feltes isn't it.

It doesn't help that the NHDP's main gameplan has been "orange man 2.0 bad". The main talking point against Sununu is an old quote from 2016 about him saying he's a "Trump guy through and through." After Sununu's solid beginning COVID response, it's harder to tie him to Trump, and there isn't enough memories. Repeating Sununu's line only does so much, and you need to convince people why you're the better candidate. It's a shame, because there are plenty of places to hit Sununu on - namely his flip-flops, his inability to work with the legislature, and being okay with the GOP's voter suppression schemes. You could even follow it up with him appointing political hacks to important positions like Chief Justice and Secretary of Education! Instead, they decided to say "sununu is orange man" over and over again. Andru Volinsky probably wouldn't have won, but at least he had plans and ideas. Feltes has talking points. Safe R

NH-Senate: Safe D. Corky Messner (R-CO) manages to combine carpetbagging with even more baggage (actually being more conservative, combined with charity fraud). At least Scott Brown had some sort of moderate image and hopped over from Massachusetts.

NH-1: Also Safe D, given Matt Mowers (R-DC)'s tenuous ties to the district, being a literal Trump acolyte, and now, his homophobic attacks on Chris Pappas. He's now currently trying to imply that Pappas is sleeping with lobbyists for votes. His boyfriend apparently used to be a lobbyist for Amazon, but has since left the company. Anyways, Pappas has a distinct local advantage on Manchester, Mowers is human filth, and I cannot wait for him to be trounced.

NH-2:Safe D, much like last time. Some memey UNH poll says Steve Negron is only down 3 but I really don't see it. Guy was a bad candidate in 2018 and is still a bad candidate now - especially considering Biden is better for the district.

Executive Council:My brain says Democrats go up 4-1, but my gut says 3-2. It will be a strong result that will give the Democrats insurance after redistricting. The pivot seats are EC-1 and EC-3 here. EC-4 has an outside chance of flipping on a good night, giving Democrats a clean sweep, but I'm bearish on MacKenzie. Either way, Democrats are pushing hard to get a female majority on the council. Lean D

EC-1: (D+1) Mike Cryans (I) (Hanover) vs. Joe Kenney (Union)[/b]: It is the fifth rematch between Mike Cryans and Joe Kenney in the far-northern reaches of the state. Mike Cryans is an interesting story, in that he was considered a perennial candidate but managed to finally break through after his sixth attempt at running for the seat. He's fundraising pretty well, and is actually a good candidate. The general Trump trend of the district is giving me pause, but I think Cryans is slightly favored because of the environment. Toss-up

EC-2 (D+7): Cinde Warmington (Concord) vs. Jim Beard (Lempster): I was worried about the primary, but it turns out Democrats won. Any of the candidates would have been good for the seat except Surdukowski, who was ostensibly a Republican plant running to confirm Sununu's Attorney General. I was scared of an Auchincloss situation happening, but that didn't come to fruition. The winner, healthcare lobbyist Cinde Warmington, now faces pilot Jim Beard. He ran for SD-8, but failed to beat Ruth Ward in the general. Either way, this is a comically gerrymandered seat that stretches from Keene to Durham. Safe D

EC-3 (R+4): Mindi Messmer (Rye) vs. Janet Stevens (Rye): It's interesting seeing Stevens win, because she was originally a NeverTrumper and Weld co-chair. She's definitely more moderate (if you can call the Kasich wing moderate), but she's apparently well-known in local GOP circles. Nevertheless, Messmer is a very strong candidate with deep local ties, and the suburbs are only getting bluer. I think Messmer has got a clear advantage, since she has a long history of work in the district and blunts Stevens's geographic advantages, but my gut says that people are underrating Stevens. Toss-up

EC-4 (R+3): Mark MacKenzie (Manchester) vs. Ted Gatsas (I) (Manchester): As Pappas established, there's a pathway to win this gerrymandered seat. I don't think MacKenzie is the right candidate, given SLH's warnings, his performance in the NH-1 primary last cycle, and his unnecessary missteps. Most notably, he sabotaged Messmer's speech at the Women's March when they ran against each other, and actually bled union endorsements to Pappas. Gatsas may have lost his mayorship, but I think he'll hold this seat down for another year. Lean R

EC-5 (R+1): Deb Pignatelli (I) vs. Dave Wheeler: Down in the southern part of the state, we have another rematch. Given the Democratic year and the lack of a trend here, I'd expect things to turn out pretty well for the incumbent. Lean D
State Senate: Key races to watch are SD-1, SD-2, SD-7, SD-8, SD-9, SD-12, and SD-23. Hypothetically this looks like a solid pickup opportunity for Republicans, with a favorable map and all, but low candidate quality really hurts them. Most districts that they lost are moving rapidly away, the environment is against them, and Dems are outpacing them financially. The chances of a supermajority dropped when Starr lost his primary, but holding the line seems like an easy task now. Lean D

SD-1 (D+1): Susan Ford (Easton) vs. Erin Hennessey (Littleton): Accidental senator David Starr lost his primary challenge, and it wasn't even close. In a strange step, Sununu endorsed Hennessey's challenge to Starr - presumably because she has been an ally of the governor and she's a better candidate for the seat. Democrats' candidate is Susan Ford, a 4-term state representative with a mixed bag. She survived in 2014, but lost in 2016 and 2010. Hennessey, in contrast, held her seat in 2018. I keep waffling between toss-up and Lean R here, but I'm going to go with my gut. Lean R

SD-2 (R+3): Bill Bolton (Plymouth) vs. Bob Giuda (I) (Warren): Another rematch, this time with an incumbent. Giuda used to have a reputation as a lunatic, but has moderated (he was one of the Republican crossovers for death penalty reveal. Bill Bolton lost by 3 point last time, but with COVID backlash, I'm not ready to declare an advantage towards any candidate. Toss-up

SD-3 (R+4): Theresa Swanick (Effingham) vs. Jeb Bradley (I) (Wolfeboro): Swanick is a slightly more well-known candidate than most others, but she's not beating Bradley's name recognition advantage and the trend of the district. Safe R

SD-4 (D+7): David Watters (I) (Dover) vs. Frank Bertone (Dover): Dover is trending Democratic quickly. Even without the Democratic trend, Frank Bertone is a conspiracy nut who believes Satanists are in control of our government. Truly amazing how Republicans have gone from Eddie Edwards to this clown. Safe D

SD-5 (D+15): Sue Prentiss (Lebanon) vs. Tim O'Hearne (Charlestown): This is a Democratic vote sink. O'Hearne is a literal who. Safe D

SD-6 (R+6): Christopher Rice (Rochester) vs. James Gray (I) (Rochester): Normally, I'd be writing this off because of how hard the Rochester area trended towards Trump, but Rice is actually a decent candidate with a compelling profile and roots in Rochester. I'm not ruling him out quite yet. Likely R

SD-7 (R+3): Phil Spagnuolo (Laconia) vs. Harold French (I) (Franklin): Democrats can win (and have won) here, but the district is slipping away quickly. Much like SD-1, this seat is Trump country, and Republicans beat a strong canidate  French notably overperformed the rest of his northern colleagues, but is going up against a much stronger candidate in former state rep/recovery coach Phil Spagnuolo, who has an advantage in Laconia and a history of winning tough elections. I think it'll be closer than everyone expected, but French has the indubitable upper hand. Lean R

SD-8 (R+2): Jenn Alford-Teaster (Sutton) vs. Ruth Ward (I) (Sutton): Another rematch from 2018. Ward only won by two points, but seems to be lagging behind in fundraising. I'm really not sure who wins here, especially post-COVID. Toss-up

SD-9 (R+2): Jeanne Dietsch (I) (Bedford) vs. Denise Ricciardi (Bedford): Denise Ricciardi is a compelling candidate. That being said, the istrict is trending towards Democrats fairly rapidly. Ricciardi is a strong candidate who could flip this in a wave, but not now. Lean D

SD-10 (D+10): Jay Kahn (I) (Keene) vs. Dan LeClair (Swanzey): It's Keene. Safe D

SD-11 (R+2): Shannon Chandley (I) (Bedford) vs. Gary Daniels (Milford): The second of our rematch candidates. Chandley's first run went very well and I don't expect things to change. Likely D

SD-12 (R+2): Melanie Levesque (I) (Brookline)) vs. Kevin Avard (Nashua): Not only is Kevin Avard lagging massively behind in fundraising, he has recently come out in support of QAnon. Between this and Levesque's stronger position, I'm gonna move this towards Democrats. Lean D

SD-13 (D+7): Cindy Rosenwald (I) (Nashua) vs. Mariellen MacKay (Nashua): MacKay, an ex-Democrat, is a good candidate in theory. This is not a wave year, so Republicans will lose significantly. Safe D

SD-14 (R+9): Nancy Hendricks (Londonderry) vs. Sharon Carson (I) (Londonderry): Hendricks is strong, the district is holding, and Carson's margins have been narrowing here, but the district is still very Republican. If everything goes right for Democrats and there's a credible third-party candidate, Democrats might have a chance in the future. Even with Londonderry trending, I don't see them making up five points. Safe R

SD-15 (D+9): Becky Whitley (Hopkinton) vs. Linda Rae Banfill (Concord): It's Concord. Safe D

SD-16 (R+2): Jason Syversen (Hooksett) vs. Kevin Cavanaugh (I) (Manchester): Cavanaugh beat David Boutin (the seat's previous occupant) by 5 points. Syversen comes from an interesting background, but he's definitely not the right candidate. Likely D

SD-17 (R+6): Nancy Fraher (Chichester) vs. John Reagan (I) (Deerfield): Fraher lost by 20% in 2016. The district is falling away from Democrats quickly. Safe R

SD-18 (R+1): Donna Soucy (I) (Manchester) vs. George Lambert (Litchfield): We have seen this song and dance before last year. Lambert got shellacked. Safe D

SD-19 (R+9): Joshua Bourdon (Londonderry) vs. Regina Birdsell (I) (Londonderry): This is another compelling district. Bourdon is a very strong candidate who serves on the Derry Town Council (the largest city in the district). Windham (which has been the NHGOP's refuge against masks) and Hampstead are still in the district, but Bourdon has been able to keep things competitive regardless. I think you'll see a surprisingly close margin here, given the reputation this district has. Likely R

SD-20 (D+2): Lou D'Allessandro (I) (Manchester) vs. Carla Gericke (Manchester): Any danger Lou would have faced would have been from the primary. As long as he makes it to the general, he has nothing to worry about. Safe D

SD-21 (D+16): Rebecca Perkins Kwoka (Portsmouth) vs. Sue Polidura (Portsmouth): It's Portsmouth and Durham. This is the vote-sink the GOP created to try and shore up SD-24. Safe D

SD-22 (R+12): Tom Haynes (Salem) vs. Chuck Morse (I) (Salem): It's Salem. Safe R

SD-23 (R+4): Bill Gannon (Sandown) vs. Jon Morgan (I) (Brentwood): Morgan is a very strong candidate. His win wasn't a fluke, and the fact that Republicans opted for a rematch bodes well for him. While it does have some Democratic turf like Exeter, it cuts into exurban Manchester, so I have a bit of pause to put it at Lean D. It's still a toss-up, but Morgan has an advantage. Toss-up

SD-24 (R+2): Lou Gargiulo (Hampton Falls) vs. Tom Sherman (I) (Hampton): Gargiulo can self-fund, but the district's trend is too strong. Likely D

Races to Watch:

Rockingham-5 (R+7): Londonderry is only getting bluer. The seat is noteworthy because of one of its current occupants, Al Baldasaro. The guy's always been in hot water for generally saying nasty things, but he's gotten some national buzz as a key figure in Trump's campaign for the veteran vote. The district has been trending strongly towards Democrats, and one of them managed to win a seat here. If more pour in, you could actually see the head of the Trump Caucus lose his seat. Lean R

[Brother Jonathan]

Quick election guide to the downballot:

NH-Gov:Chris Sununu might be vulnerable in a different time, but it became pretty rapidly clear that Dan Feltes is not that candidate. As I've said, Feltes is the most scripted candidate I've seen since Marco Rubio. The guy's progressive - don't get me wrong - but I was opposed to his candidacy because I think he's unelectable. You can look at him campaigning and you know the guy is extremely stiff, relying on talking points that are often from the NHDP themselves. Sometimes, you can look at the candidate and find a diamond in the rough who might pull off an upset. Feltes isn't it.

It doesn't help that the NHDP's main gameplan has been "orange man 2.0 bad". The main talking point against Sununu is an old quote from 2016 about him saying he's a "Trump guy through and through." After Sununu's solid beginning COVID response, it's harder to tie him to Trump, and there isn't enough memories. Repeating Sununu's line only does so much, and you need to convince people why you're the better candidate. It's a shame, because there are plenty of places to hit Sununu on - namely his flip-flops, his inability to work with the legislature, and being okay with the GOP's voter suppression schemes. You could even follow it up with him appointing political hacks to important positions like Chief Justice and Secretary of Education! Instead, they decided to say "sununu is orange man" over and over again. Andru Volinsky probably wouldn't have won, but at least he had plans and ideas. Feltes has talking points. Safe R

NH-Senate: Safe D. Corky Messner (R-CO) manages to combine carpetbagging with even more baggage (actually being more conservative, combined with charity fraud). At least Scott Brown had some sort of moderate image and hopped over from Massachusetts.

NH-1: Also Safe D, given Matt Mowers (R-DC)'s tenuous ties to the district, being a literal Trump acolyte, and now, his homophobic attacks on Chris Pappas. He's now currently trying to imply that Pappas is sleeping with lobbyists for votes. His boyfriend apparently used to be a lobbyist for Amazon, but has since left the company. Anyways, Pappas has a distinct local advantage on Manchester, Mowers is human filth, and I cannot wait for him to be trounced.

NH-2:Safe D, much like last time. Some memey UNH poll says Steve Negron is only down 3 but I really don't see it. Guy was a bad candidate in 2018 and is still a bad candidate now - especially considering Biden is better for the district.

Executive Council:My brain says Democrats go up 4-1, but my gut says 3-2. It will be a strong result that will give the Democrats insurance after redistricting. The pivot seats are EC-1 and EC-3 here. EC-4 has an outside chance of flipping on a good night, giving Democrats a clean sweep, but I'm bearish on MacKenzie. Either way, Democrats are pushing hard to get a female majority on the council. Lean D

EC-1: (D+1) Mike Cryans (I) (Hanover) vs. Joe Kenney (Union)[/b]: It is the fifth rematch between Mike Cryans and Joe Kenney in the far-northern reaches of the state. Mike Cryans is an interesting story, in that he was considered a perennial candidate but managed to finally break through after his sixth attempt at running for the seat. He's fundraising pretty well, and is actually a good candidate. The general Trump trend of the district is giving me pause, but I think Cryans is slightly favored because of the environment. Toss-up

EC-2 (D+7): Cinde Warmington (Concord) vs. Jim Beard (Lempster): I was worried about the primary, but it turns out Democrats won. Any of the candidates would have been good for the seat except Surdukowski, who was ostensibly a Republican plant running to confirm Sununu's Attorney General. I was scared of an Auchincloss situation happening, but that didn't come to fruition. The winner, healthcare lobbyist Cinde Warmington, now faces pilot Jim Beard. He ran for SD-8, but failed to beat Ruth Ward in the general. Either way, this is a comically gerrymandered seat that stretches from Keene to Durham. Safe D

EC-3 (R+4): Mindi Messmer (Rye) vs. Janet Stevens (Rye): It's interesting seeing Stevens win, because she was originally a NeverTrumper and Weld co-chair. She's definitely more moderate (if you can call the Kasich wing moderate), but she's apparently well-known in local GOP circles. Nevertheless, Messmer is a very strong candidate with deep local ties, and the suburbs are only getting bluer. I think Messmer has got a clear advantage, since she has a long history of work in the district and blunts Stevens's geographic advantages, but my gut says that people are underrating Stevens. Toss-up

EC-4 (R+3): Mark MacKenzie (Manchester) vs. Ted Gatsas (I) (Manchester): As Pappas established, there's a pathway to win this gerrymandered seat. I don't think MacKenzie is the right candidate, given SLH's warnings, his performance in the NH-1 primary last cycle, and his unnecessary missteps. Most notably, he sabotaged Messmer's speech at the Women's March when they ran against each other, and actually bled union endorsements to Pappas. Gatsas may have lost his mayorship, but I think he'll hold this seat down for another year. Lean R

EC-5 (R+1): Deb Pignatelli (I) vs. Dave Wheeler: Down in the southern part of the state, we have another rematch. Given the Democratic year and the lack of a trend here, I'd expect things to turn out pretty well for the incumbent. Lean D
State Senate: Key races to watch are SD-1, SD-2, SD-7, SD-8, SD-9, SD-12, and SD-23. Hypothetically this looks like a solid pickup opportunity for Republicans, with a favorable map and all, but low candidate quality really hurts them. Most districts that they lost are moving rapidly away, the environment is against them, and Dems are outpacing them financially. The chances of a supermajority dropped when Starr lost his primary, but holding the line seems like an easy task now. Lean D

SD-1 (D+1): Susan Ford (Easton) vs. Erin Hennessey (Littleton): Accidental senator David Starr lost his primary challenge, and it wasn't even close. In a strange step, Sununu endorsed Hennessey's challenge to Starr - presumably because she has been an ally of the governor and she's a better candidate for the seat. Democrats' candidate is Susan Ford, a 4-term state representative with a mixed bag. She survived in 2014, but lost in 2016 and 2010. Hennessey, in contrast, held her seat in 2018. I keep waffling between toss-up and Lean R here, but I'm going to go with my gut. Lean R

SD-2 (R+3): Bill Bolton (Plymouth) vs. Bob Giuda (I) (Warren): Another rematch, this time with an incumbent. Giuda used to have a reputation as a lunatic, but has moderated (he was one of the Republican crossovers for death penalty reveal. Bill Bolton lost by 3 point last time, but with COVID backlash, I'm not ready to declare an advantage towards any candidate. Toss-up

SD-3 (R+4): Theresa Swanick (Effingham) vs. Jeb Bradley (I) (Wolfeboro): Swanick is a slightly more well-known candidate than most others, but she's not beating Bradley's name recognition advantage and the trend of the district. Safe R

SD-4 (D+7): David Watters (I) (Dover) vs. Frank Bertone (Dover): Dover is trending Democratic quickly. Even without the Democratic trend, Frank Bertone is a conspiracy nut who believes Satanists are in control of our government. Truly amazing how Republicans have gone from Eddie Edwards to this clown. Safe D

SD-5 (D+15): Sue Prentiss (Lebanon) vs. Tim O'Hearne (Charlestown): This is a Democratic vote sink. O'Hearne is a literal who. Safe D

SD-6 (R+6): Christopher Rice (Rochester) vs. James Gray (I) (Rochester): Normally, I'd be writing this off because of how hard the Rochester area trended towards Trump, but Rice is actually a decent candidate with a compelling profile and roots in Rochester. I'm not ruling him out quite yet. Likely R

SD-7 (R+3): Phil Spagnuolo (Laconia) vs. Harold French (I) (Franklin): Democrats can win (and have won) here, but the district is slipping away quickly. Much like SD-1, this seat is Trump country, and Republicans beat a strong canidate  French notably overperformed the rest of his northern colleagues, but is going up against a much stronger candidate in former state rep/recovery coach Phil Spagnuolo, who has an advantage in Laconia and a history of winning tough elections. I think it'll be closer than everyone expected, but French has the indubitable upper hand. Lean R

SD-8 (R+2): Jenn Alford-Teaster (Sutton) vs. Ruth Ward (I) (Sutton): Another rematch from 2018. Ward only won by two points, but seems to be lagging behind in fundraising. I'm really not sure who wins here, especially post-COVID. Toss-up

SD-9 (R+2): Jeanne Dietsch (I) (Bedford) vs. Denise Ricciardi (Bedford): Denise Ricciardi is a compelling candidate. That being said, the istrict is trending towards Democrats fairly rapidly. Ricciardi is a strong candidate who could flip this in a wave, but not now. Lean D

SD-10 (D+10): Jay Kahn (I) (Keene) vs. Dan LeClair (Swanzey): It's Keene. Safe D

SD-11 (R+2): Shannon Chandley (I) (Bedford) vs. Gary Daniels (Milford): The second of our rematch candidates. Chandley's first run went very well and I don't expect things to change. Likely D

SD-12 (R+2): Melanie Levesque (I) (Brookline)) vs. Kevin Avard (Nashua): Not only is Kevin Avard lagging massively behind in fundraising, he has recently come out in support of QAnon. Between this and Levesque's stronger position, I'm gonna move this towards Democrats. Lean D

SD-13 (D+7): Cindy Rosenwald (I) (Nashua) vs. Mariellen MacKay (Nashua): MacKay, an ex-Democrat, is a good candidate in theory. This is not a wave year, so Republicans will lose significantly. Safe D

SD-14 (R+9): Nancy Hendricks (Londonderry) vs. Sharon Carson (I) (Londonderry): Hendricks is strong, the district is holding, and Carson's margins have been narrowing here, but the district is still very Republican. If everything goes right for Democrats and there's a credible third-party candidate, Democrats might have a chance in the future. Even with Londonderry trending, I don't see them making up five points. Safe R

SD-15 (D+9): Becky Whitley (Hopkinton) vs. Linda Rae Banfill (Concord): It's Concord. Safe D

SD-16 (R+2): Jason Syversen (Hooksett) vs. Kevin Cavanaugh (I) (Manchester): Cavanaugh beat David Boutin (the seat's previous occupant) by 5 points. Syversen comes from an interesting background, but he's definitely not the right candidate. Likely D

SD-17 (R+6): Nancy Fraher (Chichester) vs. John Reagan (I) (Deerfield): Fraher lost by 20% in 2016. The district is falling away from Democrats quickly. Safe R

SD-18 (R+1): Donna Soucy (I) (Manchester) vs. George Lambert (Litchfield): We have seen this song and dance before last year. Lambert got shellacked. Safe D

SD-19 (R+9): Joshua Bourdon (Londonderry) vs. Regina Birdsell (I) (Londonderry): This is another compelling district. Bourdon is a very strong candidate who serves on the Derry Town Council (the largest city in the district). Windham (which has been the NHGOP's refuge against masks) and Hampstead are still in the district, but Bourdon has been able to keep things competitive regardless. I think you'll see a surprisingly close margin here, given the reputation this district has. Likely R

SD-20 (D+2): Lou D'Allessandro (I) (Manchester) vs. Carla Gericke (Manchester): Any danger Lou would have faced would have been from the primary. As long as he makes it to the general, he has nothing to worry about. Safe D

SD-21 (D+16): Rebecca Perkins Kwoka (Portsmouth) vs. Sue Polidura (Portsmouth): It's Portsmouth and Durham. This is the vote-sink the GOP created to try and shore up SD-24. Safe D

SD-22 (R+12): Tom Haynes (Salem) vs. Chuck Morse (I) (Salem): It's Salem. Safe R

SD-23 (R+4): Bill Gannon (Sandown) vs. Jon Morgan (I) (Brentwood): Morgan is a very strong candidate. His win wasn't a fluke, and the fact that Republicans opted for a rematch bodes well for him. While it does have some Democratic turf like Exeter, it cuts into exurban Manchester, so I have a bit of pause to put it at Lean D. It's still a toss-up, but Morgan has an advantage. Toss-up

SD-24 (R+2): Lou Gargiulo (Hampton Falls) vs. Tom Sherman (I) (Hampton): Gargiulo can self-fund, but the district's trend is too strong. Likely D

Races to Watch:

Rockingham-5 (R+7): Londonderry is only getting bluer. The seat is noteworthy because of one of its current occupants, Al Baldasaro. The guy's always been in hot water for generally saying nasty things, but he's gotten some national buzz as a key figure in Trump's campaign for the veteran vote. The district has been trending strongly towards Democrats, and one of them managed to win a seat here. If more pour in, you could actually see the head of the Trump Caucus lose his seat. Lean R

What are you thoughts on the State House? At this point I think Dems maybe pick up a few, but I don't think they get a supermajority. I also wouldn't be shocked if they lost a handful. Granted, it's basically pointless to try and prognosticate anything with the State House since it has 400 members.

[free my dawg]

What are you thoughts on the State House? At this point I think Dems maybe pick up a few, but I don't think they get a supermajority. I also wouldn't be shocked if they lost a handful. Granted, it's basically pointless to try and prognosticate anything with the State House since it has 400 members.

Gains, but no supermajority.

[free my dawg]

Yeah, Feltes is done. Sununu's winning in places like New London and running it close in Concord.

[free my dawg]

What a ****ing disaster of a candidate.

[free my dawg]

Things look pretty bad downballot. Republicans are bleeding seats, and the GOP incumbents are doing well.

Ward and Giuda are building on their margins. Gannon declared victory in NH-23. At this point I'm not even sure if Avard loses.

We may be close to the nightmare scenario.

[Nyvin]

Looking like GOP might get trifecta in NH, despite losing Congressional races.  What a disaster.

[free my dawg]

Jesus ****ing Christ, even the second tier looks too close for comfort.

[Nyvin]

Seems like the "NH Dems are for State Income Tax" message the GOP put out really was wildly successful.

[free my dawg]

Seems like the "NH Dems are for State Income Tax" message the GOP put out really was wildly successful.

Democrats are soyfacing over Biden expanding margins while they give the GOP the pen to gerrymander the state.

Truly unbelievable. **** this party.

[free my dawg]

It seems like we elected the first non-binary state representative.

[free my dawg]

And Daniels declares victory.

Whee! 10 more years of GOP gerrymandering! More rubberstamping Sununu's hacks!

And not a single bit of it hit the news because the party decided to screech about the big bad orange man.

[free my dawg]

If only there was a candidate who had a plan to fight the income tax talking point Republicans were using to win!

If only there was a candidate who was trying to flip the script instead of flip-flop like every other failed candidate!

What a ****ing joke.

[free my dawg]

Republicans have united around Dick Hinch, a strong conservative voice who isn't explicitly allied with the Trump wing. Trump acolyte Al Baldasaro flirted with a run of his own, but decided against it in the name of unity.

The current speaker, Steve Shurtleff, has stood down, endorsing outgoing House Majority Leader/teacher's union president Doug Ley (D-Jaffrey). He seems progressive enough. Not explicitly allied with any specific wing (I believe he endorsed Klobuchar), but seems fine.

Others are running. Long-time state representative Marjorie Smith (D-Strafford) has decided to throw her hat in the ring, representing the Michael Bennet wing of the NHDP. Again, not a bad choice.

Renny Cushing (D-Hampton) is a strong Berniecrat who is considering a run as well. He's well-regarded for being the main voice pushing for the successful repeal of the death penalty (which could become relevant again, given the NHGOP has a trifecta and one of their "defectors" in the state senate lost in the primary). He would be my pick if he ran.

[Mr.Phips]

Seems like the "NH Dems are for State Income Tax" message the GOP put out really was wildly successful.

Democrats are soyfacing over Biden expanding margins while they give the GOP the pen to gerrymander the state.

Truly unbelievable. **** this party.

A Biden win is just for four years.  A Republican gerrymander lasts at least 10.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Manchester mayor Joyce Craig should run for governor in 2022.