Rate WV-03

[Peanut]

Let's call it a Tossup, but Ojeda pulls it off.

[Xing]

Lean R, but Ojeda has a chance.

[The Mikado]

Ojeda wins and becomes a one-term wonder, losing in 2020.

[TML]

Remember that most of this region's registered voters are Democrats. They stopped voting for Democratic candidates at the national level because they feel national Democrats no longer care about their best interests. Thus, a Democratic candidate who can truly appeal to them could easily make this district at least competitive.

[Figueira]

Tossup/Tilt R.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Worth noting that even amidst the Trumpoclypse most state House districts in this seat still remained Democratic. This isn't Arkansas, where all democratic tradition literally died off. lean D.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ojeda wins and becomes a one-term wonder, losing in 2020.

But then runs to replace the retiring Manchin in 2024.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Ojeda by 3-4. 

[BlueDogs2020]

The poll still has about 125 respondents remaining today.
The trend is towards Ojeda, like most of the other polls (candidate who won by a point or two was much further ahead at this point)
Though Miller will win the poll by 2 or 3 points, it is still a Tossup. Ojeda has not gone on air.

[McGovernForPrez]

God it is peak Atlas to write off a candidate based on a single poll. Still tossup like it's always been.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Ojeda tattoos scare children, and old traditionals. Manchin has no tattoos. Morrisey beats Ojeda too, unless Latinos hop over the wall of mexico, to support their own in Oheda, even through the mountains

[Progressive Pessimist]

God it is peak Atlas to write off a candidate based on a single poll. Still tossup like it's always been.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Safe R because totally not flawed poll shows him down

[IceSpear]

Wow, this thread really did not age well. Even I'm embarrassed I bought the hype a tiny bit and was generous enough to Ojeda to rate it lean R!

[IceSpear]

Remember that most of this region's registered voters are Democrats. They stopped voting for Democratic candidates at the national level because they feel national Democrats no longer care about their best interests. Thus, a Democratic candidate who can truly appeal to them could easily make this district at least competitive.

Guess that wasn't the reason they stopped voting for Democrats after all. I wonder what the real reason could be?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Lean R

Holy sh*t this might be the single instance where Icespear was too bullish for Dems on a white trash trump district

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Lean R

Holy sh*t this might be the single instance where Icespear was too bullish for Dems on a white trash trump district

Here Icespear predicts that Arkansas and West Virginia will trend Hillary more than any other state.

What state do you believe will trend the most to Hillary and what state do you think will trend the most Republican in 2016?

Arkansas and Hawaii.

If we're excluding states that had/will have home state or pseudo home state effects, then West Virginia and Colorado.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Lean R

Holy sh*t this might be the single instance where Icespear was too bullish for Dems on a white trash trump district

Here Icespear predicts that Arkansas and West Virginia will trend Hillary more than any other state.

What state do you believe will trend the most to Hillary and what state do you think will trend the most Republican in 2016?

Arkansas and Hawaii.

If we're excluding states that had/will have home state or pseudo home state effects, then West Virginia and Colorado.

Fair enough tho the only Icespear I’ve been aware of until now is the one from this year and last 100% sh*tting on the white trash lol

[Xing]

Wow, IceSpear being too bullish on the Democrat's chances in a West Virginia race... all I need to see is MTTreasurer underestimating a Democrat in New Hampshire and I'll have seen everything.

[IceSpear]

Lean R

Holy sh*t this might be the single instance where Icespear was too bullish for Dems on a white trash trump district

Here Icespear predicts that Arkansas and West Virginia will trend Hillary more than any other state.

What state do you believe will trend the most to Hillary and what state do you think will trend the most Republican in 2016?

Arkansas and Hawaii.

If we're excluding states that had/will have home state or pseudo home state effects, then West Virginia and Colorado.

I've come a long way since then, that's for sure.

Each new election gives new lessons to be learned...unless you're an Atlas poster or a pundit who refuses to learn them.

[AudmanOut]

I don’t know why people ever thought Ojeda would win here.

[TML]

I don’t know why people ever thought Ojeda would win here.

To be fair, there were some polls which had Ojeda in the lead.

In addition, his campaign style was looked upon favorably by many progressives, which they thought would be attractive to the many registered Democratic voters in this region.

While Ojeda did not win outright, he did manage to outperform Hillary by over 30 percentage points, which I would still regard as impressive.

[Peanut]

Well, I was pretty darn wrong. 2018 was good at teaching a few lessons (and severely damaging my image of Missouri and Indiana.) I'll definitely try to be more cautious in rural Democrats' chances for 2020.