Rate WV-03

[President Johnson]

How would you rate West Virginia's third district? What are Richard Ojeda's chances of winning?

I think this is still lean Republican at best for the Democrats. RCP lists it as toss-up, but FiveThirtyEight gives Ojeda just a small chance to win. There has been just one poll so far that showed Ojeda ahead by 7 points.

[ON Progressive]

Tossup.

Ojeda is ahead by 6 in the one poll we have, but West Virginia summer polls tend to overestimate Democrats by somewhere between 5-10 points.

[😥]

Tossup/Tilt D

[DINGO Joe]

Ojeda will win

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Tossup.

It is hard to rate it as lean R or more, because the one and only poll (and from a good quality pollster) has Ojeda ahead.

And it is also hard to rate is as lean D or more just because of how absurdly lopsided the 2016 Presidential results were. That bears caution even if Ojeda leads in additional polls.

So the "tossup" designation I think in this case in particular has to reflect not so much an equal probability of each candidate winning, but inherent uncertainty as to how much elasticity and departure of from the Presidential results there can really be in any district.

[here2view]

Lean R, but a lot closer to tossup than Likely R. Ojeda is the perfect Democrat to win here.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Pure tossup, slight tilt D. Ojeda is a perfect fit for this district and the sort of guy Democrats need to run in WV.

[VPH]

Lean R, but a lot closer to tossup than Likely R. Ojeda is the perfect Democrat to win here.

Tilt GOP, because Ojeda is stellar and Miller's ties to big pharma make her a weaker candidate.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Lean to Likely D. Miller is an empty suit and Ojeda is a phenomenal candidate who's leading in the only poll we have.

[windjammer]

Manchin is probably going tl carry this district by double digits. Toss up.

[Rhenna]

Tilt D.

[OneJ]

Pure Tossup, but tilt D.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Lean R, but a lot closer to tossup than Likely R. Ojeda is the perfect Democrat to win here.

[Zaybay]

Call me crazy, but this is a lean D race. While the 2016 results are a bit terrifying, it should be noted that this state loves to split tickets, and Trump's rhetoric was a perfect fit for the area. The same year they elected Trump, they also put in a D governor, which shows they are still receptive. And that was for the whole state, this race is only for the 3rd, the D base in the state.

Everything has already been said about Ojeda and Miller, one is stellar, the other is an empty shell.

Polling, which should favour Miller at this point in the cycle, so far, has actually favoured Ojeda. And not by some tiny margin, but by, like 6 points. And this was done by Monmouth, which is not known for terrible polling.

Miller really has nothing but the PVI going for her, and even then, its a false sense of security, since this is the most D downballot district.

Ojeda definitely has the advantage.

[Dipper Josh]

Call me crazy, but this is a lean D race. While the 2016 results are a bit terrifying, it should be noted that this state loves to split tickets, and Trump's rhetoric was a perfect fit for the area. The same year they elected Trump, they also put in a D governor, which shows they are still receptive. And that was for the whole state, this race is only for the 3rd, the D base in the state.

Everything has already been said about Ojeda and Miller, one is stellar, the other is an empty shell.

Polling, which should favour Miller at this point in the cycle, so far, has actually favoured Ojeda. And not by some tiny margin, but by, like 6 points. And this was done by Monmouth, which is not known for terrible polling.

Miller really has nothing but the PVI going for her, and even then, its a false sense of security, since this is the most D downballot district.

Ojeda definitely has the advantage.

[SATW]

Carol miller wins, 52-45-3

[IceSpear]

Lean R

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean R

I'll agree with the expert here.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

As of posting this the distribution of answers is almost exactly 50/50 which tells you how much of a tossup this is. I think it stays in Republican hands though, but Ojeda gets within a couple points.

[morgieb]

Toss-up. I think Ojeda is as perfect of a fit for the seat as you can imagine, but this is still an R+23 seat. Hopefully Manchin can win by 15-20 here to give Ojeda some coat-tails.

[BlueDogs2020]

Againl easily my favorite race of this cycle. I would say it is a true Tossup with perhaps a tiny Ojeda advantage. Miller is running a much worse campaign but we are starting to see signs that the GOP is starting to come around to her and spend money; Trump gave a (halfhearted) endorsement at the rally, and apparently there was an ad buy from the national GOP.
PS I am donating 5 dollars to Ojeda's campaign later today.... he needs our help

[_]

Lean D.

[tmthforu94]

Lean R, Trump will campaign heavily for Miller as he knows this is one of the few races where he could positively affect the outcome.

[ctherainbow]

Tossup.  West Virginia is a weird state and there are a lot of variables at play in this race.  It would be nice to get some more polling, though. 

[IceSpear]

Bump