New Hampshire 2018: The Bloody First

[Politician]

Pappas is easily going to win though. Not sure why people feel the need to drag Sullivan’s name through the mud like this. They attacked her military record & now are spreading unsourced rumours about her trying to primary CSP.

Praise Jesus if he does.

[IceSpear]

Sullivan picked the worst place to carpetbag, she should've went for VA-10 or somewhere in FL, NV where most of the people are transients. I don't even know why she bailed on Illinois, wasn't she in IL-14 which is absolutely winnable.

NH-1 is actually more full of transients. NH-2 is the more insular district. Most of those transients are Republican, but nevertheless there are transients.

Yeah, NH-02 actually swung towards Shaheen in 2014 despite the political climate being the polar opposite of 2008, which was pretty amazing. Brown did better than Sununu because of the big R swing in NH-01. It's hard to see anything other than the Massachusetts carpetbagger factor causing this, as it would matter way more in the 2nd than in the 1st where there are lots of Republican MA carpetbaggers that identified with Brown.

[Morning in Atlas]

Pappas is easily going to win though. Not sure why people feel the need to drag Sullivan’s name through the mud like this. They attacked her military record & now are spreading unsourced rumours about her trying to primary CSP.

You're acting like she's not a viable candidate, my dude. $600k a quarter candidates are threats, especially ones with the national backing she has.

[Jeppe]

Pappas is easily going to win though. Not sure why people feel the need to drag Sullivan’s name through the mud like this. They attacked her military record & now are spreading unsourced rumours about her trying to primary CSP.

You're acting like she's not a viable candidate, my dude. $600k a quarter candidates are threats, especially ones with the national backing she has.

The entire establishment is behind Pappas, and every single candidate is attacking her.

[Morning in Atlas]

Pappas is easily going to win though. Not sure why people feel the need to drag Sullivan’s name through the mud like this. They attacked her military record & now are spreading unsourced rumours about her trying to primary CSP.

You're acting like she's not a viable candidate, my dude. $600k a quarter candidates are threats, especially ones with the national backing she has.

The entire establishment is behind Pappas, and every single candidate is attacking her.

Last time I checked, EMILY's List was pretty damn establishment. If you're talking about the state establishment, you have a point there, but to suggest she's an anti-establishment candidate is absurd. She just comes from a different, more ascendant breed. You also grossly understimate Seth Moulton's electoral machine, especially when there are two other living, breathing examples in Conor Lamb and Amy McGrath.

I'm not sure why you're miffed that every single candidate is attacking her. That's politics. Top-tier candidates get attacked, just like Pappas is for being a face of the state establishment. It's a bloodsport.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What’s everyone’s problem with Sullivan anyways? Regardless that does not matter since Levi will win the primary.

[Zaybay]

Pappas is easily going to win though. Not sure why people feel the need to drag Sullivan’s name through the mud like this. They attacked her military record & now are spreading unsourced rumours about her trying to primary CSP.

You're acting like she's not a viable candidate, my dude. $600k a quarter candidates are threats, especially ones with the national backing she has.

The entire establishment is behind Pappas, and every single candidate is attacking her.

Last time I checked, EMILY's List was pretty damn establishment. If you're talking about the state establishment, you have a point there, but to suggest she's an anti-establishment candidate is absurd. She just comes from a different, more ascendant breed. You also grossly understimate Seth Moulton's electoral machine, especially when there are two other living, breathing examples in Conor Lamb and Amy McGrath.

I'm not sure why you're miffed that every single candidate is attacking her. That's politics. Top-tier candidates get attacked, just like Pappas is for being a face of the state establishment. It's a bloodsport.

Check his endorsement list. That will explain everything.

[Morning in Atlas]

What’s everyone’s problem with Sullivan anyways? Regardless that does not matter since Levi will win the primary.

From the guy who's the source of most of the anti-Maura sentiment on this border:

* She is a carpetbagger who went district shopping before settling for NH-1. She was recruited to run by the special interest groups that supported her. A certain special interest group that totally, definitely isn't EMILY's List encouraged her to run in IL-3 against Lipinski. She actually explored a run in IL-6 before moving to New Hampshire. Within weeks, she was ostensibly running here.

* If these reports are true, she was planning to primary one of the most progressive swing seat Democrats with a lot of history. Carol Shea-Porter is the first female Congresscritter we've had, and is the first really progressive representative. She's universally respected among the grassroots for upstaging the establishment and winning. She's also taken a lot of tough votes that could have lost her career. I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC helped Sullivan - they haven't been the biggest fans of CSP anyway and wanted someone else to run in 2016.

* Sullivan is to Shea-Porter's right. She's basically a moderate hero. Sullivan is on the record tying herself to No Labels, being anti-legalization, pro-appeasement, and hasn't taken a stance on pipelines. I've evern heard eyewitness accounts personally that she refused to take a stance on Gina Haspel. These are all common-sense issues that the rest of the field agrees on. Where Shea-Porter stood alone to stand up for progressive values, Sullivan stands alone with Republicans.

She's actually come out for $15, but that's one issue. O'Rourke seems more like your cup of tea.

[Morning in Atlas]

Pappas is easily going to win though. Not sure why people feel the need to drag Sullivan’s name through the mud like this. They attacked her military record & now are spreading unsourced rumours about her trying to primary CSP.

You're acting like she's not a viable candidate, my dude. $600k a quarter candidates are threats, especially ones with the national backing she has.

The entire establishment is behind Pappas, and every single candidate is attacking her.

Last time I checked, EMILY's List was pretty damn establishment. If you're talking about the state establishment, you have a point there, but to suggest she's an anti-establishment candidate is absurd. She just comes from a different, more ascendant breed. You also grossly understimate Seth Moulton's electoral machine, especially when there are two other living, breathing examples in Conor Lamb and Amy McGrath.

I'm not sure why you're miffed that every single candidate is attacking her. That's politics. Top-tier candidates get attacked, just like Pappas is for being a face of the state establishment. It's a bloodsport.

Check his endorsement list. That will explain everything.

Chris Pappas: State establishment
Maura Sullivan: National establishment

Catch my drift?

[Badger]

What’s everyone’s problem with Sullivan anyways? Regardless that does not matter since Levi will win the primary.

From the guy who's the source of most of the anti-Maura sentiment on this border:

* Sullivan is to Shea-Porter's right. She's basically a moderate hero. Sullivan is on the record tying herself to No Labels, being anti-legalization, pro-appeasement, and hasn't taken a stance on pipelines. I've evern heard eyewitness accounts personally that she refused to take a stance on Gina Haspel. These are all common-sense issues that the rest of the field agrees on. Where Shea-Porter stood alone to stand up for progressive values, Sullivan stands alone with Republicans.

She's actually come out for $15, but that's one issue. O'Rourke seems more like your cup of tea.

Sorry, what do you mean she's "pro-appeasement"? Appeasing whom?

[Morning in Atlas]

What’s everyone’s problem with Sullivan anyways? Regardless that does not matter since Levi will win the primary.

From the guy who's the source of most of the anti-Maura sentiment on this border:

* Sullivan is to Shea-Porter's right. She's basically a moderate hero. Sullivan is on the record tying herself to No Labels, being anti-legalization, pro-appeasement, and hasn't taken a stance on pipelines. I've evern heard eyewitness accounts personally that she refused to take a stance on Gina Haspel. These are all common-sense issues that the rest of the field agrees on. Where Shea-Porter stood alone to stand up for progressive values, Sullivan stands alone with Republicans.

She's actually come out for $15, but that's one issue. O'Rourke seems more like your cup of tea.

Sorry, what do you mean she's "pro-appeasement"? Appeasing whom?

Schumer's shutdown deal.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What’s everyone’s problem with Sullivan anyways? Regardless that does not matter since Levi will win the primary.

From the guy who's the source of most of the anti-Maura sentiment on this border:

* She is a carpetbagger who went district shopping before settling for NH-1. She was recruited to run by the special interest groups that supported her. A certain special interest group that totally, definitely isn't EMILY's List encouraged her to run in IL-3 against Lipinski. She actually explored a run in IL-6 before moving to New Hampshire. Within weeks, she was ostensibly running here.

* If these reports are true, she was planning to primary one of the most progressive swing seat Democrats with a lot of history. Carol Shea-Porter is the first female Congresscritter we've had, and is the first really progressive representative. She's universally respected among the grassroots for upstaging the establishment and winning. She's also taken a lot of tough votes that could have lost her career. I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC helped Sullivan - they haven't been the biggest fans of CSP anyway and wanted someone else to run in 2016.

* Sullivan is to Shea-Porter's right. She's basically a moderate hero. Sullivan is on the record tying herself to No Labels, being anti-legalization, pro-appeasement, and hasn't taken a stance on pipelines. I've evern heard eyewitness accounts personally that she refused to take a stance on Gina Haspel. These are all common-sense issues that the rest of the field agrees on. Where Shea-Porter stood alone to stand up for progressive values, Sullivan stands alone with Republicans.

She's actually come out for $15, but that's one issue. O'Rourke seems more like your cup of tea.

This sounds pretty ok, still go Levi!

[MAINEiac4434]

What’s everyone’s problem with Sullivan anyways? Regardless that does not matter since Levi will win the primary.

From the guy who's the source of most of the anti-Maura sentiment on this border:

* Sullivan is to Shea-Porter's right. She's basically a moderate hero. Sullivan is on the record tying herself to No Labels, being anti-legalization, pro-appeasement, and hasn't taken a stance on pipelines. I've evern heard eyewitness accounts personally that she refused to take a stance on Gina Haspel. These are all common-sense issues that the rest of the field agrees on. Where Shea-Porter stood alone to stand up for progressive values, Sullivan stands alone with Republicans.

She's actually come out for $15, but that's one issue. O'Rourke seems more like your cup of tea.

Sorry, what do you mean she's "pro-appeasement"? Appeasing whom?

Trump and the GOP.

[Morning in Atlas]

Just got a new mailer in. Pappas has his first real direct attack on Sullivan... a week before the campaign is over.

[Zaybay]

Just got a new mailer in. Pappas has his first real direct attack on Sullivan... a week before the campaign is over.

Its still something, and Pappas doesnt need to attack Sullivan to win, he just needs to consolidate the vote. I actually have done some calling for Pappas, and we have gotten positive results, but thats just me. What are you seeing on the ground?

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/JudyReardon/status/1037082764212936704?s=19

Sullivan follows suit. Much more forceful and personal than "Maura's money comes from out of state/Wall Street." The state establishment is furious, with Pappas's allies claiming homophobia. They'll come around if she wins.

Dante Scala, a professor at UNH, said that the negativity could cause a third candidate to slip through. The problem is that McEachern isn't well known outside of Portsmouth, Andrews is obscure, and the Bernie vote is split six different ways. And that's not even counting Pappas and McEachern cutting into it.

[Morning in Atlas]

Mega Update on the WMUR debate. This is far from the "candidate forums" we saw here - these are televised and sponsored by WMUR (as opposed to the NHDP). I spent an hour watching this so you don't have to.

• Atmosphere - Things were largely civil, except Levi's nepotistic screeching over M4A and Pappas. It's, once again, very odd that he's only attacking him and not Sullivan. But overall, no mudslinging between Sullivan and Pappas.
  
  
• Immigration - More of the same we saw in Exeter. Although they didn't speak, Soldati and Messmer are the only ones who support abolishing ICE, with lots of awkward dodging from the other candidates once the TV cameras rolled. Levi and O'Rourke are the big surprises. Levi, less so, because Bernie's only supporting the movement for political purposes (see: flip-flopping after three weeks). O'Rourke generally seems more okay with it, and pointed to Trump. I found that Naomi Andrews's answer was very moving.
  
  
• Gun control - Everyone agrees. Maura stuck to her talks with constituents. Cardinal/Soldati both were great, offering clear solutions.
  
  
• Sullivan's residency (why trust her when she has no ties to the state?) - More of the same. She dodged it, talking about more of her background. She decided to talk about how she and her fiance moved here. I thought that her closing statement ("It's so great to finally be home") would have served a lot better here to connect her service to here. Overall, it seemed like rambling.
  
  
• Pappas's ties to the state establishment - He says he has the pulse of the people of NH. More subliminal attacks on Sullivan, about being NH born-and-raised. Messmer chimed in about her NH ties and her ties to the Bernie movement. Overall, both rocked it.
  
  
• Medicare for All - Levi did his usual nepotistic screeching about Chris Pappas. Cardinal and Messmer talked about how it saved money compared to subsidies. McEachern and Soldati talked about its effect on business costs, with the former talking about his personal impact in the broken American system. MacKenzie brought up cutting from places like the defense budget and tax cuts from the rich. Andrews talked more about buying into Medicare without attacking MFA. Pappas and Sullivan talked more about how they believed healthcare is a human right, and how they needed to fight Trump. Overall, I found Pappas and Sullivan were more open to the idea, with Pappas/Andrews offering their own compelling visions and McEachern having the best story.
  
  
• Identification - Everyone considers themselves a progressive, except O'Rourke, who is an FDR Democrat. Genuinely would not be surprised if O'Rourke found Atlas.
  
  
• Congressional healthcare - I thought this was a stupid question but whatever. Sullivan said that veterans should get the same care. Pappas said he wouldn't take a public healthcare benefit until everyone had access.
  
  
• 2016 - most of the same. Pappas, Andrews, Soldati, and O'Rourke were Hillary supporters. McEachern, Messmer, some guy named Levi, O'Rourke, Cardinal, and Martin backed Bernie. O'Rourke and Soldati surprised me on this issue. O'Rourke is exactly the type of anti-establishment populist that would support Bernie, and Soldati's one of the two most liberal candidates. I wouldn't have ever expected them to support Clinton. McEachern confirmed he voted for Bernie, which was less surprising. If I knew sooner I'd probably have voted for him. Sullivan refused to answer, saying that she only supported Hillary in the general. That scratched a lot of heads and even left some wondering if she voted at all. Massive whiff here on her part.
  
  
• Afghanistan/Iraq - Martin, Pappas, and MacKenzie call for withdrawals. McEachern and Andrews saw a bigger issue with authorization of use of force, with Andrews shoehorning her bipartisan record in Shea-Porter's office. O'Rourke said it best, though.
  
  
• Trump impeachment - Messmer, Martin, and Cardinal want more time with the Mueller investigation. Soldati, McEachern, and Andrews are all for it. Soldati called Trump a threat, and Andrews talked about her ability to connect with voters. Pappas talked more about protecting the Mueller investigation.
  Overall, the big standout was - you guessed it - Andrews, with a sprinkling of McEachern.
  
  
• Free tuition and student loan debt - Everyone is affected by student loans. More dodging from Sullivan, with vague talks about access. MacKenzie wants free college. Not much of a winner here.
  
  
• Opioid crisis (should the feds go after opioid manufacturers) - Pappas is all for it, and talked about how expanding Medicaid and federal resources would help with it. This drew another fit of nepotistic screeching from Levi. Soldati took a prosecutor's angle, talking about how it is a public health issue and not a criminal issue. Andrews talked about how our medical examiner quit because he couldn't handle it, and echoed about defending Obamacare and Medicaid expansion. O'Rourke said that he would not only do it, but was in process of joining a lawsuit as the city attorney of Rochester. Andrews and Pappas really knocked it out of the park here.
  
  
• Pelosi - More of the same. Most talked about fresh blood (including Sullivan). MacKenzie was the only real supporter of her. Pappas and Andrews said they were focused on Pelosi, though Pappas was more open to new leadership. Cardinal and O'Rourke outright said she was too far to the right. Soldati and Levi said she needed to endorse $15 and M4A, with Levi saying he'd support Barbara Lee.
  
  
• Chief of Staff - who would be your Chief of Staff? - In LolLevi news, he named Sullivan, who is very much not a Bernie person. Sullivan and Messmer wanted Soldati. O'Rourke picked McEachern for being "the only person as Irish as he was." Naomi wanted Pappas, while Cardinal, Pappas, MacKenzie, McEachern, and Martin wanted Naomi.
  
  
• Personal trivia - O'Rourke is the only hunter there, and there are a lot of fishers there.
   Most people love the mountains. MacKenzie, Cardinal, and O'Rourke (who lives in Lake Country) are more lake people. Messmer is the only beach person, despite our beach being New England's greatest display of white trash culture.
  
  
• North Korea - Mackenzie dodged. Martin and McEachern supported "continuing playing hardball", but didn't want war without them striking first. Messmer, Cardinal, Levi, Soldati, and O'Rourke supported more diplomacy. Sullivan dodged it, attacking Trump instead.
  
  
• DC or commute from NH - Everyone wants to commute. Sullivan's answer was probably the best and the most genuine communication she's had.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• The big winner was Naomi Andrews. You can tell she holds a great deal of respect from her opponents, and she was very clear on her positions on the issue. As I said before, it's a goddamn shame she jumped in so late, and it's an even bigger shame Pappas didn't go for Governor. I truly believe we wouldn't be talking about Sullivan if she got in earlier.
  
  
• Pappas did the second-best. A few dodges, but he at least connected well and offered solid solutions. I'm much more confident about his chances, and I think he did well. He stopped just short of calling Sullivan's attacks homophobic, but said they were certainly over the line.
  
  
• The best Berniecrat was McEachern. Overall, most of them washed except Cardinal and Soldati.
  
  
• Levi Sanders did Levi Sanders things again.
  
  
• I think Maura Sullivan did pretty poorly. She spent most of it trying to connect to NH voters, talking about her life and her experiences connecting with voters rather than her stances on the issues. Overall, there was a lot of fluff and no real substance to most of what she said. Overall, her dodges, quite literally, left more questions than answers, to the point where there was an awkward silence.
  
  
• I'm genuinely surprised O'Rourke isn't an Atlas poster. He's got some pretty clunky views that you really wouldn't expect to mash together.
  
  

[Jeppe]

https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/818%20Executive%20Summary.pdf

There was some polling for this race (although it only asked favourability)

Pappas - 53/5
Sullivan - 42/7

Pappas is at 80% name recognition, Sullivan was at 70% name recognition. Everybody’s numbers were not worth mentioning (very low). The poll is from mid-August, before ads started heating up.

[Zaybay]

https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/818%20Executive%20Summary.pdf

There was some polling for this race (although it only asked favourability)

Pappas - 53/5
Sullivan - 42/7

Pappas is at 80% name recognition, Sullivan was at 70% name recognition. Everybody’s numbers were not worth mentioning (very low). The poll is from mid-August, before ads started heating up.

Excellent!

[Morning in Atlas]

We have more clarification on Sullivan's statement.

She didn't vote. Not for Clinton or Sanders or any of the Unidentified Men. She just stayed home.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We have more clarification on Sullivan's statement.

She didn't vote. Not for Clinton or Sanders or any of the Unidentified Men. She just stayed home.

Disgusting. That alone should disqualify her, honestly.

[Zaybay]

We have more clarification on Sullivan's statement.

She didn't vote. Not for Clinton or Sanders or any of the Unidentified Men. She just stayed home.

Is anyone using this as a line of attack? And do you still think that she is favoured currently?

[Morning in Atlas]

We have more clarification on Sullivan's statement.

She didn't vote. Not for Clinton or Sanders or any of the Unidentified Men. She just stayed home.

Is anyone using this as a line of attack? And do you still think that she is favoured currently?

Pappas is. He's finally going on the offensive.

I did think he was a favorite, but Sullivan's ugly personal attacks and debate performance give me a hell of a lot of breathing room.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/deanbarker/status/1036647667189854209

Maura Sullivan not only planned to run in NH-1 from the get-go, but planned to primary Shea-Porter because it was "an easy shot".

As much as I like Messmer, I'm on board with Pappas now. We need to stop Maura Sullivan at all costs.

It’s an anonymous source from an excerpt on an opinion column published by a small newspaper. I doubt it’s accurate.

The anonymous source has been revealed to be Joseph J. McCarthy, a former dean at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard when she was there.

I highly doubt a Harvard dean and a close academic advisor would lie about her intentions.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We have more clarification on Sullivan's statement.

She didn't vote. Not for Clinton or Sanders or any of the Unidentified Men. She just stayed home.

Disgusting. That alone should disqualify her, honestly.