When will Arizona,Georgia and North Carolina vote to the left of Florida

[OSR stands with Israel]

I believe AZ and NC will vote to Left of FL in 2020

and GA will vote to Left of FL in 2024

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I have been prone to underestimate the residual Republican strength of GA but it is in my opinion only a matter of time. Certainly there is some motivational threshold that could expedite the process and frankly should expedite the process but GA is a weird state, Democrats have long been dumb about this (cue Adam yelling in frustration at the abyssal void), and the 2020 candidate matters a lot.

Probably 2024 for GA, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was 2020 instead.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

AZ probably will in 2020, while I think it’s probably 2024/2028 for GA and 2028/2032 for NC (GA is trending to the left a little faster than NC at this point, it seems).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I actually see NC more like FL, possibly a touch to the right of it, in that it's going to get enough retirees to keep it Republican for a long time.  It seems to have pretty much stayed constant at a R+3 Cook PVI of late.

[here2view]

I could see Arizona voting to the left of Florida in 2020, more so than NC. NC is a very inelastic state. Arizona isn't elastic either but I think the chances are better (idk, maybe just a gut feeling.)

I was actually just in Georgia this past weekend visiting a friend. I don't think that'll happen until maybe 2028.

[Skill and Chance]

I think we could plausibly be in this world come 2028:

AZ: 49D/46R
GA: 50D/45R
NC: 47.5D/47.4R pending recount
FL: 51R/44D
NPV: 48D/47R

IMO Florida turns into a Republican base state if the Trump coalition sticks after he leaves office.  Remember, the Dem problems in Florida stem from the culturally "Northeast" parts of the state and unusually GOP strength with the Hispanic vote, not from the culturally Southern parts (which are already maxed out for R's).

NC is the one I'm least sure about.  It feels like Florida is today, but long term Dem prospects there seem brighter due to RDU and Charlotte attracting more young professionals to counteract the growth of retirement communities.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Turns out it happened in 2020

[Samof94]

Turns out it happened in 2020

Even NC re-elected a dem governor