PA-Marist: Casey +15

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Considering Marist had Evers up 13 (what a laugh), shouldn't we question the legitimacy of this poll? I mean, I have no doubt Casey's gonna win, but not like this.

Completely agreed. This race is strong Lean D. I could potentially see Casey getting Warner’d. After all folks, there is almost always at least one big upset on election night.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Even without a blue wave, I couldn't see Casey losing to Barletta.  Casey's well-liked, and Barletta's already had his spotlight during his illegal immigration crackdown years ago.  Trump dominates that conversation now, which is showing in the lack of effort on Barletta's part this cycle.  I'm wondering if things will ramp up a lot post-Labor Day, or if the NRSC has shelved this one.

I mean Barletta still has a good chance to unite rural areas with his populist appeal, but he can also easily be painted as more moderate image for the philly burbs, that would be his path, it’s hard but it’s there.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Even without a blue wave, I couldn't see Casey losing to Barletta.  Casey's well-liked, and Barletta's already had his spotlight during his illegal immigration crackdown years ago.  Trump dominates that conversation now, which is showing in the lack of effort on Barletta's part this cycle.  I'm wondering if things will ramp up a lot post-Labor Day, or if the NRSC has shelved this one.

I mean Barletta still has a good chance to unite rural areas with his populist appeal, but he can also easily be painted as more moderate image for the philly burbs, that would be his path, it’s hard but it’s there.

Oh, I'm sure Barletta will do great among Pennsyltuckians, but if he wanted to effectively go the populist route, his path would be through the Pittsburgh and Scranton 'burbs, not the Philly ones.  And that's hampered by John Fetterman and Conor Lamb turning heads in Western PA, and Casey being from the Scranton area.  I can't see a Wolf/Fetterman/Barletta or a Lamb/Barletta voter, can you?  Balancing appeal to Pennsyltuckians with appearing moderate enough to appeal to rich white soccer moms in Bucks County who love their kids' gay immigrant teacher is not within Barletta's realm of finesse, IMHO.  But I suppose we'll see in November.

I could see a lamb barletta voter but not the other one. As you said the others have the pittsburgh and north of schuylkill locked down and the neutral turf is philly suburbs where Barletta will have to make a play for those sorts of voters and use his moderate image as a homegrown businessman etc, I think he can do it, uphill climb, but he NEEDS to do that if he wants to win.