PA-Marist: Casey +15
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  PA-Marist: Casey +15
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Author Topic: PA-Marist: Casey +15  (Read 3585 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: August 23, 2018, 04:03:37 PM »

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNews_MaristPoll_PennsylvaniaAnnotatedQuestionnaire_1808201202_wit.pdf

Casey 53
Barletta 38
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2018, 04:07:31 PM »

A little more credible than that last poll, methinks.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2018, 04:07:59 PM »

Safe D. Lou Barletta is tied with Bill Nelson and Confederate Corey for running the worst campaign in a competitive Senate race.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2018, 04:09:58 PM »

This can't be right. That other "poll" said Casey was only winning by 1.87 points.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2018, 04:10:38 PM »

Safe D. Lou Barletta is tied with Bill Nelson and Confederate Corey for running the worst campaign in a competitive Senate race.

lol
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2018, 04:12:03 PM »

MUCH more believable.

Lol this was never a competitive senate race.
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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2018, 04:12:30 PM »

lmao Barletta.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2018, 04:13:01 PM »

Yeah, PA definitely flips before WI in 2020.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2018, 04:13:29 PM »

Generic ballot in the state is D+12
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2018, 04:13:39 PM »

I remember when this was supposed to be an automatic Republican pickup.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2018, 04:16:33 PM »


That would be an 18 point shift from Pennsylvania's US House vote in 2016, where Republicans prevailed 54-46.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2018, 04:21:42 PM »

JESUS. Trump's approval in the state amongst African Americans is 2%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2018, 04:25:17 PM »

JESUS. Trump's approval in the state amongst African Americans is 2%

So Trump is doing 34 points worse with Pennsylvania African Americans than he is with African Americans nationwide.

Anyone want to do a long effortpost #analysis about why this is the case? Smiley
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2018, 04:28:32 PM »

JESUS. Trump's approval in the state amongst African Americans is 2%

So Trump is doing 34 points worse with Pennsylvania African Americans than he is with African Americans nationwide.

Anyone want to do a long effortpost #analysis about why this is the case? Smiley

Something something New Black Panthers, something something voter fraud.
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windjammer
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« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2018, 04:33:20 PM »

Yeah, PA definitely flips before WI in 2020.
^^^^
In my view WI is progressively becoming a GOP leaning state while PA is probably going to remain a toss up.
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BBD
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« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2018, 04:43:56 PM »

Interesting that Tom Wolf's approval is higher than Bob Casey's.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2018, 04:51:07 PM »

So yeah, Casey has a 7-point lead in Western PA...
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« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2018, 06:03:21 PM »

Safe D, obviously. Still have to laugh at people who thought this was a tossup in January 2017.
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« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2018, 06:52:28 PM »

Considering Marist had Evers up 13 (what a laugh), shouldn't we question the legitimacy of this poll? I mean, I have no doubt Casey's gonna win, but not like this.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2018, 07:10:30 PM »

JESUS. Trump's approval in the state amongst African Americans is 2%

Yeah but like with every poll that involves Trump you have to double it...oh that's still bad. No wait, triple it! That's still bad too. Octuple it! 16%! Ha! Democrats can't win with that number of Trump supporting black Americans! #Lowestblackunemployment! #BlacksforTrump! #Republicansaren'tracist!#Gods2!
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2018, 08:38:52 PM »

Considering Marist had Evers up 13 (what a laugh), shouldn't we question the legitimacy of this poll? I mean, I have no doubt Casey's gonna win, but not like this.

Why not? He's a popular incumbent, and Barletta and Wagner are extraordinarily weak candidates running as Trumplicans in a state that still has a Democratic edge.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2018, 09:16:02 PM »

Safe D. Lou Barletta is tied with Bill Nelson and Confederate Corey for running the worst campaign in a competitive Senate race.

lol

Limo isn't even trying at this point.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #22 on: August 23, 2018, 09:18:04 PM »

Considering Marist had Evers up 13 (what a laugh), shouldn't we question the legitimacy of this poll? I mean, I have no doubt Casey's gonna win, but not like this.

Completely agreed. This race is strong Lean D. I could potentially see Casey getting Warner’d. After all folks, there is almost always at least one big upset on election night.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #23 on: August 23, 2018, 09:20:16 PM »

Considering Marist had Evers up 13 (what a laugh), shouldn't we question the legitimacy of this poll? I mean, I have no doubt Casey's gonna win, but not like this.

Completely agreed. This race is strong Lean D. I could potentially see Casey getting Warner’d. After all folks, there is almost always at least one big upset on election night.

Leave.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: August 23, 2018, 09:34:33 PM »

Considering Marist had Evers up 13 (what a laugh), shouldn't we question the legitimacy of this poll? I mean, I have no doubt Casey's gonna win, but not like this.

Completely agreed. This race is strong Lean D. I could potentially see Casey getting Warner’d. After all folks, there is almost always at least one big upset on election night.

Kinda hard to get "Warner'd" when there's no Republican wave that would potentially cause such a thing to occur.
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