Who will Republicans nominate now that Trump will either resign or be impeached?

[Saint Milei]

Donald Trump will not be impeached and removed unless some Senate Republicans decide to vote to remove. In the intensely-partisan climate that we now have that includes a personality cult surrounding the President within the GOP, and we will have both in 2019 and 2020, such is unlikely. Democrats might have the votes  in 2021 and later, but they will also have the Presidency if they have the votes, so that would make impeachment moot.

It's incredible how up until 2016 it was unthought of to even consider impeachment of a president for partisan reason but now democrats are openly talking about it.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Donald Trump will not be impeached and removed unless some Senate Republicans decide to vote to remove. In the intensely-partisan climate that we now have that includes a personality cult surrounding the President within the GOP, and we will have both in 2019 and 2020, such is unlikely. Democrats might have the votes  in 2021 and later, but they will also have the Presidency if they have the votes, so that would make impeachment moot.

It's incredible how up until 2016 it was unthought of to even consider impeachment of a president for partisan reason but now democrats are openly talking about it.

Catch up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton

In 2016 we didn't have a president who obviously obstructed justice by firing the FBI director, we didn't have a president who conspired to break federal law to hide an affair from the American people, nor did we have a president who quite possibly conspired to solicit illegal information on his opponent from a foreign entity. I don't see anyone advocating impeaching Trump for partisan reasons. Everyone is either supporting impeaching over the Emoluments Clause, investigating the Daniels Payoff, or letting the Mueller investigation continue.

[All Along The Watchtower]

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citation needed

[eric82oslo]

Maybe time to drag this thread back to life again.

It seems likelier each day now that Trump will be dragged out of office, especially after what happened yesterday.

[brucejoel99]

Maybe time to drag this thread back to life again.

It seems likelier each day now that Trump will be dragged out of office, especially after what happened yesterday.

Trump is not gonna be removed from office. Senate Republicans won't let that happen, regardless of how many criminal acts (& the severity thereof) that Trump might commit.

[Angie]

ANSWER:  THE ONLY AFRICAN-AMERICAN REPUBLICAN WOMAN of course: Angela Marie from Florida/WINDHAUSER2020

Now that Michael Cohen under oath has pleaded guilty that he twice broke the law [on behalf of Trump that is] including once broke federal campaign laws, both at the direct order from Trump, in order to, in his own words, influence the outcome of the election, I think it is pretty safe to say with 100% certainty that Trump will either resign from the presidency, or he will get impeached, either this year by the current Republican house or next year after Democrats win the house this November. It's really hard to see for me at least that less than 3/4 of the Senate will not want him removed, now that every single Senator with their conscience in mind knows that he is a serious criminal. If less than 3/4 would indict him, it would mean that a majority of GOP Senators would still support his presidency despite all this. That would practically be the death strike to the entire Republican party as we've known it for 160 years.

So who will win the Republican nomination in 2020? Personally I'm pretty sure it won't be vice president Mike Pence. Feel 98% sure about that.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This thread has aged surprisingly well.

[eric82oslo]

Maybe time to drag this thread back to life again.

It seems likelier each day now that Trump will be dragged out of office, especially after what happened yesterday.

Trump is not gonna be removed from office. Senate Republicans won't let that happen, regardless of how many criminal acts (& the severity thereof) that Trump might commit.

It depends on his approval rating with Republicans, and to a lesser extent with independents. We know by now that had it been a secret ballot in the Senate today or yesterday, then at least 30-35 of the Republican Senators would vote to remove Trump from office. Several Republicans with deep knowledge of the situation have said so by now.

If it gets bad enough, and he will become a drag on all Republicans seeking office, they will follow their conscience, heart and morals, and do the right thing. These things always seem impossible until you blink one eye and all of a sudden it's inevitable and you start blaming yourself for not having seen it sooner.

[eric82oslo]

Failure to disclose an expenditure is a mere technical Violation.  Such a failure is not as bad as what Bill Clinton Did.  It is censurable and not good grounds to remove.  You will not get 67 votes to convict.

Directing a subordinate to break the law and hide an affair from the American people to get elected president is worse then lying under oath? Ohhh! I get it. When it's the guy I don't like its worse, but when it's the guy I like I just misinform and use excuses. Got it.

I personally think that lying under oath is far more serious than a failure to disclose a campaign contribution.   But let us say for the purpose of argument, I am understating the nature of a failure to disclose.  I still maintain you cannot establish it is worse.  So let us assume they are at least equal.  In that case the resolution must be the same = CENSURE.  THE DEMOCRATS SET THE STANDARD IN THE 90s.   You cannot now try to change the standard because you think Trump is a worse person than Bill Clinton. 

What ever happened to Russiagate.  It has gotten lost in a wild search for any type of offense that can be pinned on Trump. This is why special prosecutors are so dangerous to our system.

I will state that on a personality basis that in 2016 the American public was faced with the worst choice in history. (The only close approximate would be 1884.). We just have to accept that fact and move forward.

First, Clinton's lying under oath, while a serious offense, was not material to the case at hand. I do think Clinton should have resigned, but that's water under the bridge.

Second, Trump's technical violation isn't that big a deal in and of itself, if all we're talking about is a failure to disclose a contribution. But it's also the elaborate and positive steps Trump and Cohen took to conceal the payment. It's not just a violation of omission (failure to disclose), but one of commission - active concealment. You can pile on conspiracy because they worked in concert to do this.

But it doesn't end there. A Democratically-controlled House, if it begins impeachment proceedings, will authorize an investigation into all manners of potential Trump malfeasance. We're talking broad scope, Mueller on steroids, with Trump completely powerless to shut it down. And if that happens, it is on. Add at least one count of obstruction of justice right off the bat. They will subpoena Trump's tax returns and other records, and I guarantee you there's some ugly things in there.

So...
1. Failure to disclose a campaign expense.
2. Fraudulently covering up a campaign expense.
3. Conspiracy to commit 1 and 2.
4. Obstruction of justice.

Already we're way worse than lying about an affair under oath.  And that's before we get to the possibilities of...

5. Conspiracy with agents of a rival nation to commit an attack on U.S. information security, which is treason
6. Financial reporting and tax violations.

The House will vote to impeach, and send their charges and findings of fact to the Senate. The Senate can then ignore the facts and fail to convict on most counts, or convict on most counts and refuse to remove him from office. Either, to most Americans, would be seen as gross miscarriages of justice and violations of the spirit of the Constitution.

However... Trump would resign before it ever came to House impeachment, because of #6. Protecting his financial dealings is more important to him than the Presidency. Ford set the precedent for the preemptive pardon of a predecessor, and I believe Trump would play that card. He's not as stupid as people think he is.

This is hands down a brilliant post - thank you Beef!

You must be a lawyer, if not, I don't understand anything lol.

[ElectionsGuy]

It doesn't even matter if Trump is impeached. He will not be removed from office. It's not going to happen.

[eric82oslo]

It doesn't even matter if Trump is impeached. He will not be removed from office. It's not going to happen.

Way stranger things have happened. I guess you didn't read the 538 article from today or yesterday on the matter.

[brucejoel99]

Maybe time to drag this thread back to life again.

It seems likelier each day now that Trump will be dragged out of office, especially after what happened yesterday.

Trump is not gonna be removed from office. Senate Republicans won't let that happen, regardless of how many criminal acts (& the severity thereof) that Trump might commit.

It depends on his approval rating with Republicans, and to a lesser extent with independents. We know by now that had it been a secret ballot in the Senate today or yesterday, then at least 30-35 of the Republican Senators would vote to remove Trump from office. Several Republicans with deep knowledge of the situation have said so by now.

If it gets bad enough, and he will become a drag on all Republicans seeking office, they will follow their conscience, heart and morals, and do the right thing. These things always seem impossible until you blink one eye and all of a sudden it's inevitable and you start blaming yourself for not having seen it sooner.

LOL you're giving the Republican Senators wayyyy too much credit. Remember, they have future primaries that they'd very much prefer to not lose.

[eric82oslo]

Maybe time to drag this thread back to life again.

It seems likelier each day now that Trump will be dragged out of office, especially after what happened yesterday.

Trump is not gonna be removed from office. Senate Republicans won't let that happen, regardless of how many criminal acts (& the severity thereof) that Trump might commit.

It depends on his approval rating with Republicans, and to a lesser extent with independents. We know by now that had it been a secret ballot in the Senate today or yesterday, then at least 30-35 of the Republican Senators would vote to remove Trump from office. Several Republicans with deep knowledge of the situation have said so by now.

If it gets bad enough, and he will become a drag on all Republicans seeking office, they will follow their conscience, heart and morals, and do the right thing. These things always seem impossible until you blink one eye and all of a sudden it's inevitable and you start blaming yourself for not having seen it sooner.

LOL you're giving the Republican Senators wayyyy too much credit. Remember, they have future primaries that they'd very much prefer to not lose.

If Republican disapproval of Trump gets high enough, it might be worth it for many of them. Not only that, we're talking about the Senate here. I think the vast majority of those Senators up for reelection will be far more worried about winning the general than getting primaried. And those who are not up for reelection have absolutely NOTHING, ZILCH, ZERO to lose. So why not vote their conscience then?

[brucejoel99]

Maybe time to drag this thread back to life again.

It seems likelier each day now that Trump will be dragged out of office, especially after what happened yesterday.

Trump is not gonna be removed from office. Senate Republicans won't let that happen, regardless of how many criminal acts (& the severity thereof) that Trump might commit.

It depends on his approval rating with Republicans, and to a lesser extent with independents. We know by now that had it been a secret ballot in the Senate today or yesterday, then at least 30-35 of the Republican Senators would vote to remove Trump from office. Several Republicans with deep knowledge of the situation have said so by now.

If it gets bad enough, and he will become a drag on all Republicans seeking office, they will follow their conscience, heart and morals, and do the right thing. These things always seem impossible until you blink one eye and all of a sudden it's inevitable and you start blaming yourself for not having seen it sooner.

LOL you're giving the Republican Senators wayyyy too much credit. Remember, they have future primaries that they'd very much prefer to not lose.

If Republican disapproval of Trump gets high enough, it might be worth it for many of them.

It won't. Trump's base will never not be deluded.

Not only that, we're talking about the Senate here. I think the vast majority of those Senators up for reelection will be far more worried about winning the general than getting primaried.

The "vast majority" of Republican Senators hold safe Republican seats, meaning their only worries would be a primary, not a general.

And those who are not up for reelection have absolutely NOTHING, ZILCH, ZERO to lose. So why not vote their conscience then?

Every Senator is (until they say otherwise) always up for re-election, whether it's 1, 3, or 5 years in the future. Senators who were elected last year presumably still have primaries to worry about down the line. And you know what they say about elephants...

[eric82oslo]

Maybe time to drag this thread back to life again.

It seems likelier each day now that Trump will be dragged out of office, especially after what happened yesterday.

Trump is not gonna be removed from office. Senate Republicans won't let that happen, regardless of how many criminal acts (& the severity thereof) that Trump might commit.

It depends on his approval rating with Republicans, and to a lesser extent with independents. We know by now that had it been a secret ballot in the Senate today or yesterday, then at least 30-35 of the Republican Senators would vote to remove Trump from office. Several Republicans with deep knowledge of the situation have said so by now.

If it gets bad enough, and he will become a drag on all Republicans seeking office, they will follow their conscience, heart and morals, and do the right thing. These things always seem impossible until you blink one eye and all of a sudden it's inevitable and you start blaming yourself for not having seen it sooner.

LOL you're giving the Republican Senators wayyyy too much credit. Remember, they have future primaries that they'd very much prefer to not lose.

If Republican disapproval of Trump gets high enough, it might be worth it for many of them.

It won't. Trump's base will never not be deluded.

Not only that, we're talking about the Senate here. I think the vast majority of those Senators up for reelection will be far more worried about winning the general than getting primaried.

The "vast majority" of Republican Senators hold safe Republican seats, meaning their only worries would be a primary, not a general.

And those who are not up for reelection have absolutely NOTHING, ZILCH, ZERO to lose. So why not vote their conscience then?

Every Senator is (until they say otherwise) always up for re-election, whether it's 1, 3, or 5 years in the future. Senators who were elected last year presumably still have primaries to worry about down the line. And you know what they say about elephants...

What I hate the most about Democrats is that they have an absolute resistance for ever fighting back. Why? When fighting in many or most cases is the only way where you move forward in this life.

[brucejoel99]

Maybe time to drag this thread back to life again.

It seems likelier each day now that Trump will be dragged out of office, especially after what happened yesterday.

Trump is not gonna be removed from office. Senate Republicans won't let that happen, regardless of how many criminal acts (& the severity thereof) that Trump might commit.

It depends on his approval rating with Republicans, and to a lesser extent with independents. We know by now that had it been a secret ballot in the Senate today or yesterday, then at least 30-35 of the Republican Senators would vote to remove Trump from office. Several Republicans with deep knowledge of the situation have said so by now.

If it gets bad enough, and he will become a drag on all Republicans seeking office, they will follow their conscience, heart and morals, and do the right thing. These things always seem impossible until you blink one eye and all of a sudden it's inevitable and you start blaming yourself for not having seen it sooner.

LOL you're giving the Republican Senators wayyyy too much credit. Remember, they have future primaries that they'd very much prefer to not lose.

If Republican disapproval of Trump gets high enough, it might be worth it for many of them.

It won't. Trump's base will never not be deluded.

Not only that, we're talking about the Senate here. I think the vast majority of those Senators up for reelection will be far more worried about winning the general than getting primaried.

The "vast majority" of Republican Senators hold safe Republican seats, meaning their only worries would be a primary, not a general.

And those who are not up for reelection have absolutely NOTHING, ZILCH, ZERO to lose. So why not vote their conscience then?

Every Senator is (until they say otherwise) always up for re-election, whether it's 1, 3, or 5 years in the future. Senators who were elected last year presumably still have primaries to worry about down the line. And you know what they say about elephants...

What I hate the most about Democrats is that they have an absolute resistance for ever fighting back. Why? When fighting in many or most cases is the only way where you move forward in this life.

Bruh I'm not a "pathetic nobody" (as your pre-mod edit post claimed) in that I'm not even advocating against impeachment for crying out loud. I'm just using political logic to point out why you're wrong in thinking that the Republican Senators will ever vote to convict, let alone grow a conscience. Why you felt the need to respond with raw hostility in response to my reasonable, logic-based counterpoints is beyond me.

[eric82oslo]

Maybe time to drag this thread back to life again.

It seems likelier each day now that Trump will be dragged out of office, especially after what happened yesterday.

Trump is not gonna be removed from office. Senate Republicans won't let that happen, regardless of how many criminal acts (& the severity thereof) that Trump might commit.

It depends on his approval rating with Republicans, and to a lesser extent with independents. We know by now that had it been a secret ballot in the Senate today or yesterday, then at least 30-35 of the Republican Senators would vote to remove Trump from office. Several Republicans with deep knowledge of the situation have said so by now.

If it gets bad enough, and he will become a drag on all Republicans seeking office, they will follow their conscience, heart and morals, and do the right thing. These things always seem impossible until you blink one eye and all of a sudden it's inevitable and you start blaming yourself for not having seen it sooner.

LOL you're giving the Republican Senators wayyyy too much credit. Remember, they have future primaries that they'd very much prefer to not lose.

If Republican disapproval of Trump gets high enough, it might be worth it for many of them.

It won't. Trump's base will never not be deluded.

Not only that, we're talking about the Senate here. I think the vast majority of those Senators up for reelection will be far more worried about winning the general than getting primaried.

The "vast majority" of Republican Senators hold safe Republican seats, meaning their only worries would be a primary, not a general.

And those who are not up for reelection have absolutely NOTHING, ZILCH, ZERO to lose. So why not vote their conscience then?

Every Senator is (until they say otherwise) always up for re-election, whether it's 1, 3, or 5 years in the future. Senators who were elected last year presumably still have primaries to worry about down the line. And you know what they say about elephants...

What I hate the most about Democrats is that they have an absolute resistance for ever fighting back. Why? When fighting in many or most cases is the only way where you move forward in this life.

Bruh I'm not a "pathetic nobody" (as your pre-mod edit post claimed) in that I'm not even advocating against impeachment for crying out loud. I'm just using political logic to point out why you're wrong in thinking that the Republican Senators will ever vote to convict, let alone grow a conscience. Why you felt the need to respond with raw hostility in response to my reasonable, logic-based counterpoints is beyond me.

It had exactly the effect that I want to see in every single Democrat from this point on. You got extremely angry, instead of saying that "There's no way that Trump can ever leave office" which has been the cry of almost every single Democrat since the day he took office. The only reason why Trump is still in office is because we collectively didn't get more angry and keep that anger to an 11 throughout his presidency like Republicans did during Obama's reign.

[538Electoral]

Trump.

[R.P. McM]

Maybe time to drag this thread back to life again.

It seems likelier each day now that Trump will be dragged out of office, especially after what happened yesterday.

Trump is not gonna be removed from office. Senate Republicans won't let that happen, regardless of how many criminal acts (& the severity thereof) that Trump might commit.

It depends on his approval rating with Republicans, and to a lesser extent with independents. We know by now that had it been a secret ballot in the Senate today or yesterday, then at least 30-35 of the Republican Senators would vote to remove Trump from office. Several Republicans with deep knowledge of the situation have said so by now.

If it gets bad enough, and he will become a drag on all Republicans seeking office, they will follow their conscience, heart and morals, and do the right thing. These things always seem impossible until you blink one eye and all of a sudden it's inevitable and you start blaming yourself for not having seen it sooner.

LOL you're giving the Republican Senators wayyyy too much credit. Remember, they have future primaries that they'd very much prefer to not lose.

If Republican disapproval of Trump gets high enough, it might be worth it for many of them.

It won't. Trump's base will never not be deluded.

Not only that, we're talking about the Senate here. I think the vast majority of those Senators up for reelection will be far more worried about winning the general than getting primaried.

The "vast majority" of Republican Senators hold safe Republican seats, meaning their only worries would be a primary, not a general.

And those who are not up for reelection have absolutely NOTHING, ZILCH, ZERO to lose. So why not vote their conscience then?

Every Senator is (until they say otherwise) always up for re-election, whether it's 1, 3, or 5 years in the future. Senators who were elected last year presumably still have primaries to worry about down the line. And you know what they say about elephants...

What I hate the most about Democrats is that they have an absolute resistance for ever fighting back. Why? When fighting in many or most cases is the only way where you move forward in this life.

Bruh I'm not a "pathetic nobody" (as your pre-mod edit post claimed) in that I'm not even advocating against impeachment for crying out loud. I'm just using political logic to point out why you're wrong in thinking that the Republican Senators will ever vote to convict, let alone grow a conscience. Why you felt the need to respond with raw hostility in response to my reasonable, logic-based counterpoints is beyond me.

You're right, but why is it that ND, a polity of 700k, has equal say to CA, a polity of 39m? I mean, economically, artistically, scientifically, etc., the two states are far from equal. Militarily, CA could massacre the totality of ND's bovine population in a matter of days. But if we continue to pretend that ND and CA deserve identical representation, you don't have to do the heavy lifting on issues such as climate change and the rule of law. You can let your children suffer the consequences of rural racism, authoritarianism, and anti-environmentalism. A confrontation will eventually, inevitably ensue, but you won't have to bear the brunt of the burden. No thanks — force the reckoning (possibly, the partition) right now.  

  

[MarkD]

Please let it be Kasich.

[Badger]

Please let it be Kasich.

This, but not a chance in hell.

EDIT: it'll be Trump. As quickly as things are rolling on the impeachment train, I just don't begin to see the Republican Party being remotely ready to abandon Trump before primary season swings into full gear. The Republican Senate won't convicted him, and Trump will never ever ever resign.

[KaiserDave]

In an ideal world, God-King Phil Scott?

But the assumption is dumb, the Senate will never remove Trump.

[morgankingsley]

Let's not pretend like this is a sure thing