🚨🚨🚨FL-Gov: GILLUM +11🚨🚨🚨

[Donerail]

Gillum: 33%
Graham: 22%
Levine: 22%
Greene: 10%

Pollster: Change Research (Gillum internal)
Sample size: 1,178 (including 241 early voters)
Dates: August 18-19
Link to release

Rumor also has it that the latest Associated Industries poll has Gillum in 2nd, though that hasn't been released/leaked yet.

[Bidenworth2020]

reminds me of blankenship internal showing him up 17, lol

[ON Progressive]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=297854.0

Also: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x21Xkro409WL497_yzjXaA91QEnNjjvyRRjny0LIJxY/edit#gid=1057635540

[IceSpear]

An internal poll is hardly siren worthy.

[Donerail]

reminds me of blankenship internal showing him up 17, lol

The difference here is that you have a real pollster willing to sign their name to it — the Blankenship "poll," IIRC, was just a campaign press release saying "these are the numbers from our internal poll" and was probably bs all along

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

At least he's ahead. Taking this with a grain of salt though.

[ON Progressive]

reminds me of blankenship internal showing him up 17, lol

The difference here is that you have a real pollster willing to sign their name to it — the Blankenship "poll," IIRC, was just a campaign press release saying "these are the numbers from our internal poll" and was probably bs all along

Change being a "real pollster" is questionable. They had Perreilo ahead by 8 in the VA-Gov D primary, El-Sayed within single digits of Whitmer in the MI-Gov D primary, and claimed in a tweet they had Newman pulling away from Lipinski.

[Donerail]

Change being a "real pollster" is questionable. They had Perreilo ahead by 8 in the VA-Gov D primary, El-Sayed within single digits of Whitmer in the MI-Gov D primary, and claimed in a tweet they had Newman pulling away from Lipinski.

they were also within a point of the final result in the MT & SC specials and were the only poster to show Stewart coming anywhere near Gillespie in 2017, but thank you for cherry-picking the least favorable examples to fit your case.

[ON Progressive]

Change being a "real pollster" is questionable. They had Perreilo ahead by 8 in the VA-Gov D primary, El-Sayed within single digits of Whitmer in the MI-Gov D primary, and claimed in a tweet they had Newman pulling away from Lipinski.

they were also within a point of the final result in the MT & SC specials and were the only poster to show Stewart coming anywhere near Gillespie in 2017, but thank you for cherry-picking the least favorable examples to fit your case.

I am comparing D primaries to D primaries.

[BundouYMB]

I am quite confident that Change Research is not a real pollster based off their horrendous misses in Illinois, and the fact that they were totally unresponsive to questions from reporters who tried to investigate them when they started dropping their very-optimistic-for-Biss IL-Gov polls. Hopefully this obviously nonsense poll will regulate them to permanent trash status after Gillum loses the primary by a huge margin.

[Zaybay]

I doubt this poll is true, but I do think that this race will be a close one between the big three.

[Alabama_Indy10]

An internal poll is hardly siren worthy.

[henster]

Why do people keep taking this pollster seriously? They've been massively wrong in three different primaries already, I'm shocked they even have clients. They have to be the worst pollster in the country right now, yes worse than Eric Cantor's pollster.

[Pandaguineapig]

reminds me of blankenship internal showing him up 17, lol

I remember the good old days when PNM insisted that, through his "expert" knowledge of Republican politics, Blankenship was going to win the nomination running away

[Devout Centrist]

I mean, I wish this were true. But Change Research has gotten it wrong on almost every single race they've polled, except NJ's and VA's gubernatorial elections.

[Nyvin]

There aren't even any cross tabs on this poll....

[IceSpear]

reminds me of blankenship internal showing him up 17, lol

I remember the foot d old days when PNM insisted that, through his "expert" knowledge of Republican politics, Blankenship was going to win the nomination running away

I too remember those foot d old days. Good times.

[henster]

I think they also showed Newman with a big lead over Lipinski as well. Have they ever got a race right?

[Pollster]

This looks very much like an informed ballot number rather than an initial ballot number.
They likely came to this finding after presenting a series of positive statements about Gillum.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I want to believe dot png. I don't, but I want to.

This looks very much like an informed ballot number rather than an initial ballot number.
They likely came to this finding after presenting a series of positive statements about Gillum.

This is a sensible reason for why this poll is such an outlier relative to others. Probably asked opinion of Sanders, followed by information that Gillum rallied with Sanders, then the poll itself.

[Cold War Liberal]

I mean, I wish this were true. But Change Research has gotten it wrong on almost every single race they've polled, except NJ's and VA's gubernatorial elections.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Gillum's grown on me, but his scandals will be a liability in a general election.

[wesmoorenerd]

Gillum's grown on me, but his scandals will be a liability in a general election.

Gillum hasn't really grown on me one bit, but Levine really has. He's run a good campaign and he's got a better track record than I initially thought.

[KingSweden]

If Florida Democrats nominate this guy they deserve to lose

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If Florida Democrats nominate this guy they deserve to lose

I mean, this is true of the entire field this year.