Does Trump have a path without Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin?

[christian peralta]

Does Trump have a path without those three states together in 2020, if those three flip back Democratic

[Greedo punched first]

No, he needs all three. If he wins Wisconsin but loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania still likely vote Democratic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He can win NV, NH and the Dems lose ME 2, that is the path to his victory, but with Shaheen on the ballot, NH isn't gonna vote GOP, even if C.Sununu jumps in.

[Rookie Yinzer]

No. He's not going to win anything that Clinton won.

[The Mikado]

No, he needs all three. If he wins Wisconsin but loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania still likely vote Democratic.

Alternately, you have the fun* scenario of Dems reclaiming MI and WI but Trump holding PA...with the Dems also taking Arizona. 269-269.

[Beet]

No. If he loses all 3 he's done for. But he has a better chance in all 3 than Atlas thinks.

[Vosem]

There is a sliver of a chance if he can flip Minnesota (in a sort of repeat 2000/2004 where few states swing very far and even bordering similar states like IA/WI can swing in opposite directions) in spite of losing all three. NH doesn't matter either way in this scenario, but all Trump '16 areas -- including MN-2 -- beyond PA/WI/MI have to be held.

[Sir Mohamed]

The map below would be 270-268 R, but very unlikely to happen. If Trump loses PA/WI/MI, he's basically done. He coudn't even afford a faithless elector.

[OneJ]

Not really, so no.

No, he needs all three. If he wins Wisconsin but loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania still likely vote Democratic.

Alternately, you have the fun* scenario of Dems reclaiming MI and WI but Trump holding PA...with the Dems also taking Arizona. 269-269.

The Dems better have the house majority by that point if this happens because if that’s not the case I would be devastated.

[SN2903]

The map below would be 270-268 R, but very unlikely to happen. If Trump loses PA/WI/MI, he's basically done. He coudn't even afford a faithless elector.

He has a path without MI and Wisconsin which is Florida, Ohio and PA. It would be tough without all 3 but if the dems pick someone hard left that appeals to more white working class voters he could maybe win Nevada, New Hampshire and Maine. Virginia is a longshot but not impossible if dems go goes hard left.

[Use Your Illusion]

If he loses all 3 states he has no shot in hell unless he flips NV and NH and even then you have 269-269. It could come down to a faithless elector or God forbid the courts. But I sincerely doubt it comes to that. I think he'll hold PA at least

[Slander and/or Libel]

Not really, so no.

No, he needs all three. If he wins Wisconsin but loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania still likely vote Democratic.

Alternately, you have the fun* scenario of Dems reclaiming MI and WI but Trump holding PA...with the Dems also taking Arizona. 269-269.

The Dems better have the house majority by that point if this happens because if that’s not the case I would be devastated.

If it were a tie, it wouldn't matter whether the Dems held the House; the House votes by state delegation, and Republicans will still control a majority of those almost certainly, even if they don't control the chamber.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The house delegation would look like this, the same map the Dems will win by

[South Dakota Democrat]

Not really, so no.

No, he needs all three. If he wins Wisconsin but loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania still likely vote Democratic.

Alternately, you have the fun* scenario of Dems reclaiming MI and WI but Trump holding PA...with the Dems also taking Arizona. 269-269.

The Dems better have the house majority by that point if this happens because if that’s not the case I would be devastated.

If it were a tie, it wouldn't matter whether the Dems held the House; the House votes by state delegation, and Republicans will still control a majority of those almost certainly, even if they don't control the chamber.

This.  One of the most misunderstood aspects of the U.S. Constitution.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He does have a path, but the EC is tilted towards the Dems in NV,CO,VA, NH, WI, MI & PA, the states that matter.

[IceSpear]

No. Zero. Nada. Xingkerui and I can guarantee you that he’s not winning NV and NH before PA/MI/WI, lol.

I feel slighted.

[Person Man]

I also have a feeling that if PA, MI, and WI flip, so does Florida and possibly Arizona because of demographic similarities. The Republican Party has an advantage in Florida, but the Democrats can't win without it even though on paper its mathematically possible. Maybe New Hampshire could flip in such a circumstance, but I doubt it unless it really is becoming more Republican at a good rate. 

[°Leprechaun]

It could all come down to PA. If he wins only WI, but not PA, on the following map it would be a tie,

This map shows PA as the tipping point 279-259 either way:

[°Leprechaun]

If the election isn't this close we could conceivable have an identical map to 2012, since FL,OH & IA are still winnable for the Dem.

[pbrower2a]

He can win without one or two of them, but not without all three.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the election isn't this close we could conceivable have an identical map to 2012, since FL,OH & IA are still winnable for the Dem.

Dems don't need either Iowa, OH or FL they must win MI,PA,WI and VA

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's possible, it would look like Romney's strategy from 2012, but it will be really difficult.  2012 wasn't too long ago, but it was a different time where the Republican could have potentially won Colorado and Virginia. Now, those two states seem off-limits to Trump. It's not impossible for him to win without those three, but close to it. If Trump is losing them, he is in a really tough situation.

[OneJ]

Not really, so no.

No, he needs all three. If he wins Wisconsin but loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania still likely vote Democratic.

Alternately, you have the fun* scenario of Dems reclaiming MI and WI but Trump holding PA...with the Dems also taking Arizona. 269-269.

The Dems better have the house majority by that point if this happens because if that’s not the case I would be devastated.

If it were a tie, it wouldn't matter whether the Dems held the House; the House votes by state delegation, and Republicans will still control a majority of those almost certainly, even if they don't control the chamber.

Oh that’s my mistake. I wondered if they would vote by state delegation or not but I assumed the latter I guess due to what I’ve seen here before,

[The Mikado]

Anyway, I don't think he needs all three, but he definitely shouldn't feel comfortable unless he's winning PA. Dem Pennsylvania would leave him with a very, very narrow path with no room for error.

[SN2903]

No. If he loses all 3 he's done for. But he has a better chance in all 3 than Atlas thinks.

Yep and I have a weird feeling Wisconsin will be to the left of Michigan in 2020. I think Michigan just fits Trump really well as state esp counties like Macomb and Monroe. I think Trump takes PA and MI in 2020 and probably narrowily loses Wisconsin.