Comparing Georgia and Virginia (1988-*2020)

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Both states are very diverse and becoming even more diverse with both states being inelastic with a decent Educated population size (More in VA obviously). Will Georgia become the next Virginia in 2020 or 2024?

1/2

1988:



1992:



1996:




2000:

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

2/2

2004:



2008:


2012:


2016:



*2020:

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Now lets see how the core Atlanta and Suburban counties + Athens-Clarke County have been voting since 1988. Most of these counties has been rapidly trending Democratic

Gwinnett County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwinnett_County,_Georgia#Government_and_politics

Henry County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_County,_Georgia#Government_and_politics

Cobb County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb_County,_Georgia

Cherokee County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherokee_County,_Georgia#Politics

Fayette County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fayette_County,_Georgia#Politics

DeKalb County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeKalb_County,_Georgia#Government_and_politics

Fulton County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fulton_County,_Georgia#Politics

Rockdale County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockdale_County,_Georgia#Politics

Cowleta County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coweta_County,_Georgia#Politics

Clayton County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clayton_County,_Georgia#Politics

Forsyth County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forsyth_County,_Georgia#Other_elected_officials

Paulding County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paulding_County,_Georgia#Politics

Newton County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton_County,_Georgia#Politics

Douglas County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_County,_Georgia#Politics

Clarke County, GA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke_County,_Georgia#Politics

[Skill and Chance]

It's remarkable how ironclad Republican control of VA was for about 15 years (often with the support of conservative Dems in the legislature) before it all started falling apart last year (now it's moderate R's making deals with the statewide Dems).  Makes me wonder if a lot of Southern states are more vulnerable to a Dem takeover than they look.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

It's remarkable how ironclad Republican control of VA was for about 15 years (often with the support of conservative Dems in the legislature) before it all started falling apart last year (now it's moderate R's making deals with the statewide Dems).  Makes me wonder if a lot of Southern states are more vulnerable to a Dem takeover than they look.

Interesting how Georgia and Virginia voted nearly identical to each other from 1988 until 2004.

[Politician]

I'm not buying Georgia will be Titanium D, but it will probably be similiar to Virginia today in the late 2020's.

[Podgy the Bear]

Georgia resembles states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona, i.e. the influx of a  diverse ethnic population (more left leaning) is being matched by a largely conservative white population.  And felony disenfranchisement laws are more extreme in Georgia/Florida than Virginia.

I do believe that Georgia is tilting purple--but I don't think it will move as fast as Virginia.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams will flip Georgia in 2018 but the Democratic nominee will fall short in 2020. I actually think Georgia won't flip on the presidential level until there's an open race. So if Trump wins re-election then 2024, but if a Dem wins in 2020, then not until 2028 (which also happens to be when I think Stacey Abrams will run )

[Mr. Smith]

It's remarkable how ironclad Republican control of VA was for about 15 years (often with the support of conservative Dems in the legislature) before it all started falling apart last year (now it's moderate R's making deals with the statewide Dems).  Makes me wonder if a lot of Southern states are more vulnerable to a Dem takeover than they look.

Interesting how Georgia and Virginia voted nearly identical to each other until 2004.

Not really, they were quite far apart during 1952-1980 cycle, maybe some similarities '84-'88, then Georgia proceeded to be quite a bit more D in '92 than both it and NC, and then after '96 Virginia suddenly became the most liberal Southern State sans The Al Gore effect in Tennessee for 2000.

Been that way since.

[Del Tachi]

I would place the states on a similar trajectory, it's possible that Georgia could end up more Democratic than Virginia in the future because Metro Atlanta could dominate GA's population more than NOVA dominates VA's population.

[RINO Tom]

Georgia will likely drift more Democratic in 2020, but beyond that it's less clear, IMO.  Atlanta getting more diverse will likely be the most important component, as the ATL suburbs strike me as quite different from NOVA.

[mvd10]

Georgia will likely drift more Democratic in 2020, but beyond that it's less clear, IMO.  Atlanta getting more diverse will likely be the most important component, as the ATL suburbs strike me as quite different from NOVA.

I agree with this btw. According to the CNN exit polls white college graduates in Georgia voted 69% Trump, while Virginia white college graduates voted 49% Trump. Now, you can quibble about the numbers but Georgia is more racially polarized than Virginia.

[libertpaulian]

Georgia will likely drift more Democratic in 2020, but beyond that it's less clear, IMO.  Atlanta getting more diverse will likely be the most important component, as the ATL suburbs strike me as quite different from NOVA.

I agree with this btw. According to the CNN exit polls white college graduates in Georgia voted 69% Trump, while Virginia white college graduates voted 49% Trump. Now, you can quibble about the numbers but Georgia is more racially polarized than Virginia.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=VAP00p2

White college grads in Virginia voted 55% McCain in 2008.  I'd say Georgia in 2020 will be like Virginia in 2008.  You'll start to see those stats shrink for the GOP, especially as more Millennials and Gen Z'ers participate.

[mvd10]

Georgia will likely drift more Democratic in 2020, but beyond that it's less clear, IMO.  Atlanta getting more diverse will likely be the most important component, as the ATL suburbs strike me as quite different from NOVA.

I agree with this btw. According to the CNN exit polls white college graduates in Georgia voted 69% Trump, while Virginia white college graduates voted 49% Trump. Now, you can quibble about the numbers but Georgia is more racially polarized than Virginia.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=VAP00p2

White college grads in Virginia voted 55% McCain in 2008.  I'd say Georgia in 2020 will be like Virginia in 2008.  You'll start to see those stats shrink for the GOP, especially as more Millennials and Gen Z'ers participate.

Even with migration streams or Millennials starting to vote at higher rates I can't see Trump dropping much below 65% with college grads in Georgia in 2020 atleast. McCain won 73% of college grad whites in Georgia (52% in all of Georgia) and according to the CNN exit polls Georgia shifted from 65% white in 2008 to 60% white in 2016 (a shift which I'm going to assume was more dramatic in the Atlanta metro + suburbs) so I think a big part of the shift came from demographic changes. Romney lost out in Gwinnett and places like GA-6 too, while college educated whites overall trended R in 2016. Atlanta whites probably are less susceptible to liberalism than whites in NoVa/DC suburbs, the federal workforce surrounding DC makes a difference I guess. And we don't really know which direction both the GOP and the Democratic Party will go in the future, I guess that will also impact long term trends.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I updated the thread to add the 2020 election results. It’s so clear that GA is going the same exact path as VA as the rapidly growing and bluing Atlanta metro begins to dominate the whole state.