Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

Is there enough votes possible to get Kemp below 50%?

Seeing the pictures and posts of GA yesterday was awful. People literally waiting in line like 4 hours to vote. Are we sure all of those votes have been counted?

There have been about 70k votes come in since 6-8 hours ago, when people were saying that there were at least 50k absentee ballots still out in Cobb and Gwinnett. I was also hearing that none of the Fulton mail ballots had been counted, but that might have been old news just making its way into my feed.

Since I went to sleep last night (around 5 AM), we've seen the margins change as such:

Kemp 1948540 -> 1971401 (+22861)
Abrams 1861097 -> 1906256 (+45159)
Metz 36268 ->37023 (+755)

So Abrams has pulled around 65% of those votes that have been counted over the past few hours. Especially if there were still a lot of Fulton mail ballots out there, it's possible...but she's down by 65,000 votes. Assuming she continued to win 65% of what came in, there'd need to be almost 200k votes still lingering out there to win a plurality. That's probably too much of a stretch.

However, to get Kemp to a runoff (assuming she wins the 65% of what's left), there'd need to be about 75,000 outstanding votes. That's still a stretch based on what I'm seeing.

[Adam Griffin]

ONE SILVER LINING FROM LAST NIGHT: Democrats made huge gains in the State House. We flipped 14 seats from the GOP (though they flipped 3 from us).

Bacon King did some research; I'm posting his findings here:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[/quote]

Compared to previous cycles where we didn't even have enough candidates to win a majority even in theory, we cleared 42% in enough districts to actually win the House - a substantial improvement: far beyond what I ever imagined possible under this iteration of maps.

[Adam Griffin]

Gwinnett just dumped its remainder; Woodall ahead by 0.4 points. All that's left are provisionals, which probably won't be finalized until next Tuesday or so. If Dems work to validate these provisionals and turn these voters out to the Board of Elections, I'd say it's still winnable (though provisional voters in Gwinnett are going to be considerably lower-propensity than in, say, Fulton).

McBath's almost out of runoff territory - there might be enough left somewhere to pull her to a 1-point win (not sure if Cobb or Fulton have any non-provisionals remaining).

[Mr. Smith]

Getting Kemp blow 50 seems impossible, but getting Abrams to a margin under 1% to trigger a recount...what will that take?

[GAKas]

Did we ever get a confirmed number of outstanding votes? Or did our lovely SOS just not want to provide that info?

[QAnonKelly]

https://twitter.com/wsj/status/1060227284886581249?s=21


This will take you around the paywall

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is over. The email I got from the campaign manager was just spin, spin, and more spin. I'm proud of the race Abrams ran. She got the most votes for a Democrat in the history of this state. She is so desperately needed in politics. I hope there is something bright in her future.

[Horus]

Tom Price's evil wife may have lost her seat in the state house.

[Adam Griffin]

In case anybody's interested:

Abrams did what she needed to do in urban and metro counties - and not just in ATL. She hit what I thought were somewhat unrealistic benchmarks I made a couple of months ago in virtually every metro area of Georgia - but she got slaughtered in rural Georgia (white and black areas alike). There is very little racial correlation for her drop-off compared to Obama '08 save for in the whitest counties in Georgia, implying that rural Dem turnout was bad across racial lines.

Swing, Obama 2008 - Abrams 2018




John Barrow basically outperformed Abrams everywhere except for the core metro, and really outperformed her in his old CD. However, Barrow underperformed Abrams by almost 30k votes in the 5 metro counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, Fulton, Dekalb & Clayton). If he had got the same # of votes as she did, he'd currently be leading and over 49%.

John Barrow Margin Vs. Stacey Abrams

[Devout Centrist]

Somehow rural Georgia just keeps getting worse and worse. Wow

[GAKas]

Sad to see Stacey go down, but not surprised. Seeing her put up 1.9 million votes and almost 49% is encouraging for future elections though

That being said, this is peak rural GA correct? I can't see any Democrat performing worse in rural counties in 2020, so as long as the Atlanta metro and suburbs keep growing, GA keeps turning blue?

[Devout Centrist]

Sad to see Stacey go down, but not surprised. Seeing her put up 1.9 million votes and almost 49% is encouraging for future elections though

That being said, this is peak rural GA correct? I can't see any Democrat performing worse in rural counties in 2020, so as long as the Atlanta metro and suburbs keep growing, GA keeps turning blue?

They'll find a way

[QAnonKelly]

Tom Price's evil wife may have lost her seat in the state house.

Can we quarantine her?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Didn't a decent amount of black people in rural areas cast absentee ballots? Their vote might not be counted until later, and that could switch some of the black belt counties to Abrams

[Storr]

Tom Price's evil wife may have lost her seat in the state house.

Can we quarantine her?

Maybe we can send her to Alabama.

[Podgy the Bear]

Abrams is now the undisputed leader of the Democratic Party in Georgia. She can make a further impact by campaigning hard for John Barrow (and Lindy Miller--the PSC District 3 candidate) in the runoff.

The Dems won at least 12 state House seats--all in the north Atlanta suburbs.  With the 2020 census (and depopulating rural areas), metro Atlanta representation in the state legislature is going to be that much more significant in the years to come.

[Storr]

Abrams is now the undisputed leader of the Democratic Party in Georgia. She can make a further impact by campaigning hard for John Barrow (and Lindy Miller--the PSC District 3 candidate) in the runoff.

The Dems won at least 12 state House seats--all in the north Atlanta suburbs.  With the 2020 census (and depopulating rural areas), metro Atlanta representation in the state legislature is going to be that much more significant in the years to come.

Stacey Abrams for Senate 2020? With how close she made it this year, who knows how it could go in a Presidential year with the increased turnout which comes with it.

[Pollster]

Just tuning into the drama here.

What are the odds of the governor race being fought to a runoff?
How does John Barrow look for the runoff?

[Adam Griffin]

Last time I checked, there were about 25,000 remaining provisional ballots and ABM (90% of them are provisional), all in Dekalb and Clarke.

Abrams was at last check needing 23,000 net votes to force a runoff, because as she earns more votes, the threshold also increases. Anyway, even if every single provisional ballot was counted (not even close to happening) and she won them by 3:1 (Dems usually win provisionals by 2:1), she'd only be halfway to what she needs to trigger a runoff. The final margin is gonna be something like 50.2-48.8.

I saw that her campaign held a press conference and was blatantly accusing Kemp of lying and hiding votes basically (the media, more or less, has corroborated the SoS counts of outstanding ballots) and demanding that the media see the data. This is not a good look and if the next few weeks becomes a circus of press conferences and court cases instead of open space for our runoff candidates to campaign, I think it hurts us substantially in any runoff scenario. The best thing we can hope for is that the GOP calms down and Dems remain energized over the belief that the election was stolen.

[henster]

Honestly Sally Yates > Stacey Abrams in 2020. Just need to a little better in rurals and hold Abrams support in suburbs and that should do it and I think Yates is better suited to do that.

[Bidenworth2020]

Honestly Sally Yates > Stacey Abrams in 2020. Just need to a little better in rurals and hold Abrams support in suburbs and that should do it and I think Yates is better suited to do that.

michelle nunn 2.0? haha hell no

[IceSpear]

I'm just going to say this: Regardless of if there's a runoff or not, Stacey Abrams has nothing to be ashamed of. She ran an amazing campaign and did the best any Georgia Democrat has since...I don't even know, Adam or one of the other Georgians can fill in the blank there.

Her margins in the Atlanta metro are simply insane. I hope it's not the last we've seen of her, and luckily I doubt it is.

[Pericles]

Bit of a wild shot here; but might she be beating Casey Cagle? Cagle doesn't have the same appeal to the Trumpy rural base as Kemp, who brilliantly played identity politics, and generally in the primary came off as an ass. He may have done better in the suburbs though, but then again Democrats are doing well in the suburbs overall this year. It's hard to tell, and I may be completely off with this-thoughts?

[IceSpear]

Bit of a wild shot here; but might she be beating Casey Cagle? Cagle doesn't have the same appeal to the Trumpy rural base as Kemp, who brilliantly played identity politics, and generally in the primary came off as an ass. He may have done better in the suburbs though, but then again Democrats are doing well in the suburbs overall this year. It's hard to tell, and I may be completely off with this-thoughts?

I agree. I think the suburbs were already locked in for Abrams from the beginning, but Kemp whipped the Racist GA Hicks into a frenzy in a way that Cagle never could have. And it'll probably end up being enough.

[Adam Griffin]

Bit of a wild shot here; but might she be beating Casey Cagle? Cagle doesn't have the same appeal to the Trumpy rural base as Kemp, who brilliantly played identity politics, and generally in the primary came off as an ass. He may have done better in the suburbs though, but then again Democrats are doing well in the suburbs overall this year. It's hard to tell, and I may be completely off with this-thoughts?

I was always rooting for Cagle; I knew Kemp was much savvier than people gave him credit for at the onset. There's even still a chance that once this is all over, he reverts to his more moderate, legitimate persona (though embracing the nature of Trump is obviously politically-expedient in this climate).

But yeah, Cagle wouldn't have fired up the rurals as much because he couldn't pander to them believably. When those leaked recordings came out, I was devastated, because that was in essence his obituary. Meanwhile, I think the organic Democratic energy coupled with whatever Abrams was able to harness would have been there regardless. We'd be heading to a runoff at minimum with Cagle.