Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Gass3268]

AG you called it, GA-07 would flip before GA-06!

Called it too soon (but it's still closer as of now than GA-06)!

Dave Wasserman has some mud on his face.

[CookieDamage]

Her and Gillum both losing is a huge disappointment. GA and FL Dems lost to the worst people.

[Adam Griffin]

AG you called it, GA-07 would flip before GA-06!

Called it too soon (but it's still closer as of now than GA-06)!

Dave Wasserman has some mud on his face.

Apparently so does Hillary Clinton, lol.

[QAnonKelly]

Abrams looks like she's gonna be able to drag him below 50% with Fulton and DeKalb still out. Glad Bordeaux won. She ran a great campaign and is a great candidate and I'm not just saying that as a GSU alum

Sorry--but it looks like Bourdeaux is now 6000 votes behind.  Forsyth County precincts came in for Woodall in a big way.  McBath is now down by 100 votes!!

Damn I just saw that. That's crazy

[Adam Griffin]

The white vote is still hard to crack for Dems in the deep south.

I think these exit polls (at least in GA) are screwy, looking at the actual margins. We'll have racial turnout data from the SoS in a few weeks and I'll do the vote calculations, but it's hard to believe that Abrams went from -8 to -3 while getting less of the white vote than Carter, when the black share of the electorate isn't any larger and Abrams only got like 3 points more from them (and from Latinos) than Carter.

She certainly did much worse in rural Georgia, but this isn't necessarily true elsewhere - and it may balance out.

[Adam Griffin]

Don't necessarily call Bourdeaux out just yet:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1060044081693364226

[Adam Griffin]

Kemp back down to a 3-point win; Barrow back in runoff territory:

[QAnonKelly]

Abrams campaign saying they believe it’s going to a runoff. She’s supposed to speak soon

[QAnonKelly]

Bluestein on Twitter says there’s about 110k mail in ballots to be counted. It’s the big four counties too

[Adam Griffin]

Bluestein on Twitter says there’s about 110k mail in ballots to be counted. It’s the big four counties too

She'll need about that many (90k with a 3:1 margin or 115k with a 2:1 margin) to trigger a runoff at this point.

Of course, we're definitely having a runoff for Barrow at minimum.

[Reaganfan]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

[Calthrina950]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

I agree. I said several times that Georgia was not ready to flip in 2018, and it seems like I was right. However, Georgia has not been called, and a runoff looks probable. However, Kemp seems favored to win the runoff.

[Inmate Trump]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

Then why did she do so much better than every Democrat who has run for governor here in the last 20 years? She reached to virtually a tie.

[The Dowager Mod]

Kemp just stole an election in broad daylight.

[Podgy the Bear]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

I agree. I said several times that Georgia was not ready to flip in 2018, and it seems like I was right. However, Georgia has not been called, and a runoff looks probable. However, Kemp seems favored to win the runoff.

It's not going to flip this year, but it's going to happen--and soon.  I always maintained that the Democrats have been in a huge hole, and it's going to take some time to dig out.

The Democrats have now found the formula in Georgia:

1) Forget the rural areas once and for all.
2) Focus on the rapidly expanding blue (Atlas red) metro Atlanta complex--which now includes Gwinnett, Cobb, Douglas, Henry, Newton, and Rockdale on top of the existing Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton.  Fayette, Forsyth, and Cherokee will stay red but will become bluer in the years to come.  And work to flip more state House and Senate seats--which went Democratic this year in many of the north Atlanta suburbs.  It will force the current Republican legislature to protect their congressional incumbents and make the races that much more competitive in the future.  We're probably going to win GA-06 and come very close in GA-07 (and this will easily flip in 2020).
3) Statewide elections will take more time, but I am very encouraged--just need to keep working to refine the strategy going forward.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think she definitely has a future. She showed the path to a future win even if the numbers aren't quite there yet. Maybe they will be in four years.

Her margins in the core nine counties in the Metro were immaculate. (Fulton, DeKalb, Douglas, Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Newton, and Rockdale) and she did really well comparable to other Dems in Fayette, Cherokee, Hall, and Forsyth. Looks like Dems can't do anything to make headway in some rural North and South Georgia counties. We will just have to work to register more voters and hope the Metro keeps receiving an influx of Dem voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think she definitely has a future. She showed the path to a future win even if the numbers aren't quite there yet. Maybe they will be in four years.

Her margins in the core nine counties in the Metro were immaculate. (Fulton, DeKalb, Douglas, Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Newton, and Rockdale) and she did really well comparable to other Dems in Cherokee, Hall, and Forsyth. Looks like Dems can't do anything to make headway in some rural North and South Georgia counties. We will just have to work to register more voters and hope the Metro keeps receiving an influx of Dem voters.

Honestly, I think it's just a matter of time. I mean, just look at Cobb and Gwinnett--Abrams outperformed Clinton by 8-10 points in each of those--and Clinton had already set a record in each herself!

Another indication of how things are changing (they just haven't changed all the way yet):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Badger]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

Takes a moron to know a moron I guess.

[Calthrina950]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

I agree. I said several times that Georgia was not ready to flip in 2018, and it seems like I was right. However, Georgia has not been called, and a runoff looks probable. However, Kemp seems favored to win the runoff.

It's not going to flip this year, but it's going to happen--and soon.  I always maintained that the Democrats have been in a huge hole, and it's going to take some time to dig out.

The Democrats have now found the formula in Georgia:

1) Forget the rural areas once and for all.
2) Focus on the rapidly expanding blue (Atlas red) metro Atlanta complex--which now includes Gwinnett, Cobb, Douglas, Henry, Newton, and Rockdale on top of the existing Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton.  Fayette, Forsyth, and Cherokee will stay red but will become bluer in the years to come.  And work to flip more state House and Senate seats--which went Democratic this year in many of the north Atlanta suburbs.  It will force the current Republican legislature to protect their congressional incumbents and make the races that much more competitive in the future.  We're probably going to win GA-06 and come very close in GA-07 (and this will easily flip in 2020).
3) Statewide elections will take more time, but I am very encouraged--just need to keep working to refine the strategy going forward.

This is all true. While Abrams and O'Rourke fell short, it is clear that Texas and Georgia are gradually moving towards the Democrats. I think the Democrats will crack the glass ceiling in both states during the 2020s, perhaps as soon as 2020 or 2022.

[Badger]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

I agree. I said several times that Georgia was not ready to flip in 2018, and it seems like I was right. However, Georgia has not been called, and a runoff looks probable. However, Kemp seems favored to win the runoff.

It's not going to flip this year, but it's going to happen--and soon.  I always maintained that the Democrats have been in a huge hole, and it's going to take some time to dig out.

The Democrats have now found the formula in Georgia:

1) Forget the rural areas once and for all.
2) Focus on the rapidly expanding blue (Atlas red) metro Atlanta complex--which now includes Gwinnett, Cobb, Douglas, Henry, Newton, and Rockdale on top of the existing Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton.  Fayette, Forsyth, and Cherokee will stay red but will become bluer in the years to come.  And work to flip more state House and Senate seats--which went Democratic this year in many of the north Atlanta suburbs.  It will force the current Republican legislature to protect their congressional incumbents and make the races that much more competitive in the future.  We're probably going to win GA-06 and come very close in GA-07 (and this will easily flip in 2020).
3) Statewide elections will take more time, but I am very encouraged--just need to keep working to refine the strategy going forward.

I can't agree on number one. A big reason Abrams apparently lost was the bottom fell out for her support and rural areas. Don't forget, Southwestern Georgia is heavily world, but also heavily black. That I believe is where the turnout faltered. It is far more difficult to organize rural areas that it is urban areas, for the simple reason that people could go door-to-door in an apartment complex much much quicker than they can on Rural back roads. Without any evidence in front of me, my wild-ass guess is that if the Georgia rural black belt counties had turn out equivalent to the urban counties, Abrams would have won. Feel free to correct me with math though.

But as far as trying to do Reach Out to the supposed still existing wwc ancestral a blue dog Democrat blah blah blah blah blah, I agree. Fuc them. There are a useless myth. Spread a little bit of money to the local County organizations so they can squeeze what pockets of democratic strengths are are in their individual counties, and otherwise put that money towards turning out the vote in metro Atlanta, and to a lesser degree Savannah.

[libertpaulian]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

She was raised in Mississippi.  She's just as Southern-fried as Brian Kemp.

[Badger]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

She was raised in Mississippi.  She's just as Southern-fried as Brian Kemp.

Don't bother Mike " look internet! I put a towel on my head and pretending to be a Muslim like some 1950s cartoon. aren't I funny" Nazi with facts.

LOL at my auto spell changing his last name! But you know what? I'm not going to bother correcting it.

[Buzz]

Voted for Kemp today!  He will be a great Governor for all Georgians!  I see him getting about 50.5% on election day and avoiding the runoff!

hmm, not a bad prediction. Not bad at all..

[QAnonKelly]

Kemp’s down to 50.4%

[wbrocks67]

Is there enough votes possible to get Kemp below 50%?

Seeing the pictures and posts of GA yesterday was awful. People literally waiting in line like 4 hours to vote. Are we sure all of those votes have been counted?