Interesting Age and Gender Data in the Black Vote

[100% pro-life no matter what]

GOP vote share for US House, 2016:

By sex-
Men- 18%
Women- 5%

By age-
18-29- 15%
30-44- 7%
45-64- 10%
65+- 9%

So, if we take this at face value, with black 18-29's being 50% more likely to vote Republican as the black population as a whole and assume that the gender gap is proportionally the same (men are 3.6 times as likely to vote GOP), House Republicans got 27% of black men under 30 in 2016!  A similar calculation for president says Trump got about 15% of black men under 30, still far better than his overall performance with black people.

[SingingAnalyst]

Very interesting.

Young Blacks, living as many of them do in college dorms or with white roommates, are probably exposed to more "white thinking" than older Blacks, and may be more likely to experiment with the GOP.

Perhaps some Black men, especially younger ones, are turned off by what they see as the feminization of the Dem party and/or that party's focusing too much on women's issues (just as many, many white men are!)

In 1980, Black voters 65+ were Reagan's strongest age group among Black voters. By 1988, Black voters under 30 were Bush's strongest age group among Black voters. This trend reflects the overall voting population.

According to one survey, 100% of Black women under 30 voted Obama in 2008.

[darklordoftech]

I wonder what would have happened if Bernie was nominated. Younger blacks may have felt that Hillary agreed with too many Nixon/Reagan/Atwater policies for their liking.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

A few thoughts:

1) It's important to distinguish between old-school African-Americans, and recent diasporan communities from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean. The latter group is younger, more closely resembles Asian-Americans socioeconomically (in both the "model minority" and "refugee" senses) and therefore may be receptive to the GOP in ways that the Michelle Robinsons and Cleveland Browns of America might not be.

2) One-drop rule. This could be a case of biracial people being more acculturated by their white relatives, but still identifying as black. @HillGoose knows what I'm talking about.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Let's just ignore what the GOP and even some Dems have done to a large segment of the black male population, and how we would expect those maligned to vote if given the opportunity.

There's not any meaningful trends toward the Republican Party at any level of the black community. The young male vote is skewed by incarceration rates and the number of voters serving in the military.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Let's just ignore what the GOP and even some Dems have done to a large segment of the black male population, and how we would expect those maligned to vote if given the opportunity.

There's not any meaningful trends toward the Republican Party at any level of the black community. The young male vote is skewed by incarceration rates and the number of voters serving in the military.

I can still see black Americans trending R overall in a less racially polarized future. They won't vote Dem by 70-80 point margins forever.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Let's just ignore what the GOP and even some Dems have done to a large segment of the black male population, and how we would expect those maligned to vote if given the opportunity.

There's not any meaningful trends toward the Republican Party at any level of the black community. The young male vote is skewed by incarceration rates and the number of voters serving in the military.

I can still see black Americans trending R overall in a less racially polarized future. They won't vote Dem by 70-80 point margins forever.

Yes they will vote that much Dem forever. For the margins to narrow, the Republicans would have to make changes to their platform to accommodate the need to diversify its appeal to minorities, something the Republican base would never allow. Considering how the country is getting more diverse over time, this will eventually result in the Republicans not being able to effectively compete on the national level a few generations from now.

[OneJ]

It’s also worthy to recognize that young black men have very low turnout rates compared to young black women and the higher propensity black male voters are probably more likely to vote Republican due to some factors such as socioeconomic status, education, etc. College-educated blacks, and all college-educated minorities period, are more likely to vote GOP than those who aren’t as well.